Diesel Jumps a Nickel from Yesterday, Less Than 13 Cents from a New Record.
National Average Fuel Prices
According to AAA the price of diesel and regular gasoline jumped over 5 cents from yesterday.
AAA does not have a data download so I use the Energy Information Agency data that is weekly ending Monday.
AAA Fuel prices
Diesel is only 12.9 cents from a new record high.
Change From Year Ago
- Regular: $0.93 up 29.3 percent
- Mid-Grade: $0.97 up 26.3 percent
- Premium: $0.99 up 24.5 percent
- Diesel: $2.00 up 54.1 percent
Hello Farmers and Truckers
Ukrainian drone strikes have hit a large share of Russia’s refining system—reports commonly cite about 22–24 of the country’s 34 major plants, covering a majority of nameplate capacity. That campaign cut Russian crude processing sharply (to roughly 3.9 million barrels per day at points in mid-2026, the lowest in two decades) and reduced diesel output. Russia responded with a diesel export ban to protect its own market, removing a major traditional supplier from global trade. oilprice.com
The United States does not import Russian diesel, so the effect is indirect. Former buyers of Russian cargoes (Turkey, Brazil, North Africa, and others) have turned to alternative sources, including U.S. Gulf Coast and other Western barrels. That extra export pull, on top of already tight inventories, high U.S. refinery utilization, and separate disruptions from the Iran conflict, has tightened the global diesel market and lifted U.S. prices.axios.com
Market Reactions
- U.S. diesel futures jumping more than 11% in a single day after the Russian export ban—the largest daily gain in four years. reuters.com
- Retail diesel moving above $5 per gallon in July 2026 and later reaching about $5.62–$5.69 per gallon by late August/early September 2026, roughly 53% higher than a year earlier and close to the 2022 record of $5.82
Refining margins (crack spreads) also widened to record or near-record levels, benefiting U.S. refiners while raising costs for trucking, agriculture, construction, and other diesel-dependent sectors. Analysts describe the price rise as the product of a genuine global product shortage rather than a crude-oil shortage alone; lost Russian refining capacity is one of the main drivers.
Prices remain sensitive to how quickly Russian plants can be repaired, whether the export ban is extended, and developments in the Middle East.
The attacks have therefore contributed to a sustained elevation in U.S. diesel costs through reduced worldwide supply and redirected trade flows.
The war in Ukraine and the war in Iran have contributed to rising prices.
Unpopular Wars
Trump In Very Tight Spot
Bloomberg:
President Donald Trump said renewed attacks on Iran would likely be short-lived, reiterating his claim that the US controls the crucial Strait of Hormuz after fresh fighting spiked energy prices and rekindled fears of an open-ended war
Diesel Supplies at Record Low
The peak season for gasoline is summer driving. The peak season for diesel is here now.
Harvesting Peak: August to November
The agricultural harvest is an “energy-thirsty” period driven by rigid seasonal schedules and heavily concentrated geographic demand.
- The Core Drivers: High-volume fuel use shifts into overdrive as massive farming equipment—including combines, tractors, and grain carts—runs continuously from early morning until night. Once crops are reaped, heavy-duty trucks and freight trains consume massive amounts of diesel to transport commodities to storage elevators and processing plants.
- Timing & Geography: In the United States, demand escalates heavily in the Midwest. The spike begins in late August, reaches its maximum crest in October, and tapers off by late November.
- Market Dynamics: Because modern farming has increasingly adopted “no-till” or conservation planting methods in the spring, the agricultural demand for diesel is heavily lopsided toward the autumn harvest. Farmers typically buy fuel on an as-needed basis rather than storing it at scale, making them highly vulnerable to rapid price hikes
The Christmas / Holiday Shipping Peak: September to December
While harvesting centers on extracting raw materials, the Christmas peak centers on distributing finished consumer goods.
- The Core Drivers: This surge powers multi-modal logistics networks—ocean containers, locomotives, long-haul trucking, parcel delivery vans, and retail restocking hubs.
- Timing Phases: The “Holiday Peak” actually plays out in two distinct waves:
- The Import/Wholesale Peak (Late Summer/Early Autumn): Ocean freight and rail transportation see massive volume spikes from August through October as retailers aggressively stock warehouses with holiday inventory ahead of time.
- The Last-Mile/Retail Peak (November to December): High-intensity consumption shifts directly to e-commerce, parcel delivery, and regional food distribution networks, running intensely up until Christmas week.
- Market Dynamics: Holiday logistics demand is completely price-insensitive. E-commerce companies, distribution centers, and couriers must meet strict contract and calendar deadlines to prevent late deliveries or canceled orders. They will buy diesel to keep trucks moving regardless of how high fuel prices go.
| Market Vector | Harvest Impact | Christmas Impact | Combined Market Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inventory Impact | Draws heavily on localized fuel reserves, particularly in rural and agricultural hubs. | Drains nationwide commercial distribution inventories at terminal gates. | Compresses total available supplies right as winter heating oil demand begins to build. |
| Price Volatility | Hits local cash/spot premiums and increases operational costs for low-margin farm businesses. | Drives up truckload freight rates and triggers carrier “peak-season fuel surcharges”. | Drives widening crack spreads (refining profit margins), which sharply raises prices for the end consumer. |
It’s likely only a matter of days before diesel hits a new record high.
Related Posts
August 30, 2026: Oil and Bond Yields Higher Following First US Attack on Iran in Weeks
U.S. Strikes Two Iranian Rocket Launchers in First Attack in Weeks
August 31, 2026: Political Realities May Force the Fed to Hike in September
It will be a stretch for the Fed to pause for many reasons, not just the CPI.
September 1, 2026: September Fed Rate Hike Odds Shift Dramatically Back Towards a Hike
It’s been a complete round trip in the last month.
Meanwhile, up in British Columbia, our diesel (adjusted for the exchange rate) is about $7.32 per gallon
Perhaps the question should be how loud the farmers, ranchers, consumers, and others will scream and howl when oil and diesel spike out of control.
My guess is the howls will be heard on the moons of Jupiter.
the farmers ranchers and consumers, would all be fine, even if they have to tighten their belts. for fucks sake, they could all lose an easy 50 to 100lbs and be just fine. rich world fat fucks, with endless government welfare. the pearl clutching by the peanut gallery is most comical. plus there is jesus and college football starting up. their will be plenty of panem et circenses in pax dumbfuckistan for another few generations, even as this evil empire collapses.
I say this reluctantly having called this and been long refining stocks since May: All (and often illegally) the President has to is either stop, or tariff refined product exports. We DO produce enough for the US, but we don’t have enough slack to make up for lost ME &/or Russian production.
Oh but that would cost Caligula 2.0’s cronies some graft. Ergo he won’t.
Here’s all you need to know:
APpeQnsPxhmmC7iIqUjpOJvYy31RwxQIoA:1788453908855&udm=2&fbs=ABfTbFVyMZGZf1hfvX9uKjN_-G8cY2oODYyTyZk24Xz37_7FQxui8Kx2g0Ftr9bBxn49Ly_T0cFKD_iAOn0eja7PPcSg547ZZPMula7JSNc-5dHwdkRtAD7PT1NS9HR5ArddLDryzNrZgOnScQQC-rpAXrYe95uI1jHx6bIgK6S7x_GMwpWHUY2Y6IzHpJi7vGknUcZklYQPwg-MLcsH7u9sgTRYzPBiCw&q=global+refining+exports+goldman+sachs&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjftbz_7dKWAxVXnGoFHdWOAe4QtKgLegQIFxAB&biw=1266&bih=592&dpr=1.5#sv=CAMSURoyKhBlLXQ2X1VCaTQyS05ka1NNMg50Nl9VQmk0MktOZGtTTToOZ3BJanpVakk4YjhaS00gBCoXCgFzEhBlLXQ2X1VCaTQyS05ka1NNGAEwARgHIOnXnsICSggQARgBIAEoAQ
End of story unless we get some export reductions
BTW, Brazilian farmers are starting their panting season and will be ramping up their diesel consumtion. Brazil imports 20-30% of their diesel needs.
—
The exposure. Russia supplied 81% of Brazil’s imported diesel in March and April, worth $1.43bn of a $1.76bn total, per Comex Stat data.
—
The correction. Imports cover roughly a fifth to a quarter of Brazilian diesel consumption, so Russia supplies closer to a sixth of what the country burns, not four-fifths.
Absent that supply they’ll be importing far more from the US and other regional sources.
Iran and Ukraine are becoming increasingly linked. …I guess Trump also sees a solution as being linked (some attempt at a deal with Russia to end both).
However his idea of a solution is to appease Putin over Ukraine and attempt to “win” in Iran. Both of which will simply extend the conflicts.
Whilst the lives lost in these conflicts are pretty horrendous, try asking your favourite LLM how many lives have been lost to to USAID cuts – it is staggering.
Going to be fascinating after the mid-terms whether the most powerful country in the world can move away from the whims of a single self-obsessed dimwit.
most powerful country in the world has armies of meth heads wondering small and big towns………and we haven’t won a war in 80 years. our response to the 9.11 attack on little pencil pushers at their morning desks, was pathetic. it was just one big multi trillion dollar grift. we are the greatest grifter empire of all time. hence donald trump and W the dumber and Genocide Joe have been our presidents. you see kids, democracy always works. grifters will elect grifters to do grifter things. not really too complicated. just takes a little bit of honesty.
The stated goal of the various wars is often not the real goal.
The real goal in Iraq, Libya and Syria was to turn those countries into failed states, and thus no threat to Israel. This goal, however, could not be said out loud.
nah. stupid assessment. failed states are a much bigger threat to our puppet useful idiot israel. failed states breed crazies like ISIS etc……….sorry old sport, your logic is silly.
The United States is not “appeasing” Russia. Sutcliffe went to Russia to warn them of further American escalation.
And right on cue, two days later, Zelenskii announced that Ukraine will undertake terrorist attacks on commercial aviation in Russia.
In addition to the agricultural and holiday shipping period factors, there is also the approach of home heating fuel season. While homes aren’t heated with diesel, increased production of heating oil will compete with production of diesel.
I would agree that in nominal terms the price of diesel is likely to hit a new record in the near future. But in real dollar terms, the peak price of diesel was in 2008. Adjusting for inflation, diesel would need to rise to the range of about $6.80 per gallon in current dollars to hit a new true record price. That’s about another 20% increase. This seems rather unlikely to me unless there is an unexpected surprise (e.g. a Gulf Coast hurricane destroying refinery capacity). So I guess I would phrase the key question not so much as “Is the price of diesel going to hit a nominal high in the next days?” (very likely) to “Is the price of diesel headed for a real dollar all time high sometime this fall?” (maybe not so likely). Things like holiday logistics might not be sensitive to a nominal record price, but that could change with a real record price.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent partially blamed Ukraine for the high costs of fuel because they retaliated against Russian aggression and cherry-picked specific statistics on the economy to dupe the Fox News audience into thinking Trump’s economy is humming.
If anyone int he Administration wanted to end the war, they need only cut off ISR and intelligence sharing to Ukraine. For that matter, any foreign sales of weapons come with export restrictions.
Ukraine would have no choice but to immediately fold.
there are always ways to make the best of it. i sold beer and soda on gas lines in the 1970s as a teenager. cops even bought beer from us. queens, nyc. not far from donald’s home. bwaaaahhhhh. ps everyone in nyc knew the donald was an asshole. a cry for help, really.
I know what you mean, I worked at BLS, in the 70’s. I’m sure selling beer was more fun.
i worked at NASA in 80s and a few other gov agencies at state and local levels i’d rather not mention. let’s just say the first one i worked for using GIS and computer cartography and remote sensing was to facilitate the ruling class to rule over the middlebrows and lumpenproles. i was in my early twenties and spent the next 7 years better understanding how pax amerika truly worked. i quit and went to wall street, and never regretted getting away from the evil doers. trading one hour per day for the past 35 years has been a hoot. i hesitate to call it work. degenerate gambling. enough time to be a college student for life with plenty of naps each day.
I just drove through California, towing a travel trailer with a gas pickup, left the diesel Sprinter at home even though it gets nearly 30 mpg. It’s easy to find $7.50 diesel in CA usually $2.00 above regular gas.
(In answer to the question, this week.) B4NI.DE is a proxy ETF for Diesel. This proxy appears to be in a terminal 26 Aug 2026 3/3 of 7-8/6-7 day blow-off. If the blow-off pricks (and inversely mirrors) a global equity/crypto crash … diesel prices could then moderate as the world anticipates private debt-restructuring on bubble priced assets and a global major recession. However, as Mish pointed out, diesel is essential in farming and transportation of goods and kids. (And only 1% of tractors in China are electric.) At any rate, BIOT (Blame It On T)
Crack spreads are supportive of significant new highs in diesel any time now. I’ll say give it a month. Will there be price controls????
details: https://www.data4thepeople.com/p/crack-spread-chart
Are you suggesting we curtail big oil’s profits? Are you insane? That cannot be tolerated.
Innuendo. Better to call a spade a spade so we can cut in to the problem.
Look how much “other agony” there is in the US
Compared to the 70’s.
I will start with health care.
All Insurances
Utilities and even the optional phone/internet bill.
Now lets talk auto repair, home repair, et, al…..
Food anyone?
The list can grow………
Life in the Fast Last…….
It’s bad how much diesel and regular gas is increasing now. But it’s also relative.
Fuel prices would have to increase another 20-25% to match the agony experienced by regular Americans in the late 70s – on a wage-adjusted basis (not even counting the greatly increased fuel efficiency over time)
We can easily be there in a month.
Good! Diesel stinks. Replace it with electric power. If you can’t afford to upgrade, then maybe you shouldn’t be in business.
Congratulations, you’ve proven that you’re the most mindless MAGA shill drumpf clown on this board, surpassing Stu and the rest.
You get a gold star for Idiocracy.
I’m sure that you also think that oil stinks, helium stinks, fertilizer stinks and anything coming out of the soon to be worthless Strait also stinks. And that somehow everyone should upgrade from those.
Perhaps we can Make America Great Again by shitting in the fields ala North Korea in order to fertilize our crops? “Potash stinks, anyone who can’t upgrade to shit in their own fields shouldn’t be in business.”
Make America Shitty Again (MASA).
Why would it be MAGA that thinks diesel stinks? Because you hate MAGA but have no ideas what policies they support? What a mindless comment.
Why? Ummm because the dude is MAGA, read his comments on Mish’s many posts. Not mindless, but based on clear and consistent behavior of the original poster.
Jojo is one of the most proven MAGA idiots here. Perhaps you did not realize he has an extensive history here.
Stu – hands down over JoJo – not even close
And MAGA certainly is not promoting electric.
Electric will eventually win, even in the US
Really? Stu is mostly harmless IMO.
Jojo is more of a mindless clone, plus a lot more bloodthirstly and willing to sacrifice anyone other than himself in the quest to destroy the evil Muslims at all costs.
THANKS! 🤣
No surprise you consider it a badge of honor
JoJo is a troll, who makes shit up and says whatever stupid thing he thinks will support his point at the moment.
Stu, StrongGnu and other are just MAGA cultists who repeat whatever the talking point of the day is.
I’m honored to be allowed to mix with those who know better and/or so much more than I, such as yourself! 🤣🤣🤣
If you try to astroturf any harder, you’ll get turf burn.
thats so barack biden with a sprinkle of pelosi
You should meet a few farmers before you have an opinion. Farming is really hard on every level
That’s why farmers get billions in government support payments every year. What happened to the free market when it comes to farming? Free markets don’t apply to farming?
They should use all those billions to upgrade their machinery so they won’t be dependent on stinky diesel.
be careful pretty soon you will start liking windmills and maga will revoke your moronhood
Wow, I did not think you could lower your cred much further, but this is an excellent effort in that regard. How do you propose converting the world’s fleet of vehicles of all types to electric? Don’t forget, you need to build out a full charging network before those vehicles will be really useful for the purposes you envision (making the global supply chain function).
Of course, JoJo is being JoJo.
But the rest of the world is quickly moving to electric – which is basically the gist of his ‘argument’. (zero surprise from me as people are finally waking up to the extreme volatility of fuel prices that can come from ‘nowhere’ at any time). One-fourth of all new consumer vehicles sold worldwide last year were electric (either full or plug-in hybrid) – https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2026/trends-in-electric-cars. Percentage for 2026 is estimated to be even higher – with fuel prices increasing.
Not equivalent to the global supply chain, but Amazon is only one early precursor of delivery/logistics going electric.
Just to compare, the other day I saw that the gallon price here is:
$10.46 Diesel
$10.46 Gasoline (regular)
Much of energy costs in Europe are (proportional) taxes.
Past couple of days both have moved up, with diesel higher.
Diesel has traditionally been 10-20% cheaper here.
Yesterday
$10,74 Diesel
$10,60 Gasoline
Cannot extrapolate trend in $/gal because the FX changes every day.
Published recommended list prices are quite a bit higher
If you are going to quote prices, then you need to specify what country you are quoting them from.
Here in CA, diesel seems to be running in the $6-$7 range/gal. The national average is closer to $5/gal.
I just filled my rental car here in Lithuania where prices are significantly lower than in western part of EU. Price per Liter €2.18 x 7.785= €8.25 Gallon; today’s exchange rate roughly 1.16 so $9.59 Gallon.
$5.69 diesel USA average as of Monday, as posted in chart at the top. Tell us you dove straight into the comments without reading it without telling us. We see your artificial numbers meant to prop up the Tangerine Terrorist. Closer to $5 than $7 but if that is what you meant, you’re so desperate to be technically correct about anything.
13 days
less than a week IMO – say 5
Any other guesses
3
Next Monday or the Tuesday after labor day if I’m putting in. Just in time for Trump to do more dumb shit over the weekend to drive the market up.
I will say 8 days, taking the over to next Friday for headline at week end, plus the rise in prices has continually been a little slower than expected, that’s the basis for the guess.