The polls and election odds are breaking for Trump. Why?
Sky News has a nice video of the Harris Media Blitz.
I would not call a dead heat a polling disaster.
Let’s be honest. The disaster was Trump’s election odds 22.7 percentage point drop in the span of three weeks due to a miserable debate in which he did not practice.
In the last three weeks, Trump has gained back 8 points of the 22.7 points he lost.
Silver still has Trump behind, but just barely.
Polymarket Odds
On July 16, one could have bought Harris for 6 cents. Trump would have cost 72 cents.
Trump then fell to 44 percent down from 72 cents. That’s the real disaster.
You can now buy Trump for 58 cents or Harris for 42 cents.
How Much of a Political Lagging Indicator is Nate Silver?
On October 12, I asked How Much of a Political Lagging Indicator is Nate Silver?
Silver keeps changing to where Polymarket was a week ago.
Backfiring or Something Else?
The media blitz certainly did not help. Harris looked silly on 60 minutes and like a fool on The View when she said she would not have done anything differently than Biden.
Obama chastising black males likely backfired. But what about the economy?
Initial and Continued Unemployment Claims Surge
On October 11, I noted Initial and Continued Unemployment Claims Surge
But things are much worse than the chart of continued claims shows.
Also on October 11, I noted Continued Plus Long-Term Unemployment Claims Suggest Recession Right Now
Understanding the Chart
- The problem with continued claims is that benefits in 48 of 50 states expire after 26 week. Once a person hits 27 week, they are still unemployed but they have no claim.
- To address this issue, I add those unemployed 27 weeks or more to continued claims.
- Since claims are weekly, I compute a monthly average (not a 4-week moving average) of continued claims and add that to the monthly total of those unemployed 27 weeks or more.
Change in Unemployment by Age Group and Race
The next jobs report on November 1 (for October) could impact the election.
The Cost of Food Increased 0.4 Percent in September
On October 10, I asked The Cost of Food Increased 0.4 Percent in Sept, What’s in Your Basket?
The BLS just handed Trump a huge campaign talking point. Five charts.
If Trump was smart (not that he can or will do anything about this), he would hammer this issue hard, in the correct way, blasting Harris for suggesting price controls.
Also see A Racist Proposal by Harris Would Make Forgivable Loans to Blacks
The political pandering on both sides of the aisle continues with free money handouts. The latest by Harris is unconstitutional and racist.
I suspect that messaging didn’t and won’t work.
Who Will Decide the Election?
Back in February, I commented that renters would decide the election. That is still my base case.
Who are the renters?
Young voters and black. They are the ones least likely to have assets and the most impacted by inflation. In unprecedented numbers, young voters and blacks have switched to Trump.
Here’s the question that may be on their minds: Are you better off than four years ago?
On her media Blitz, Harris proved she will be just like Biden. That message coupled with the economy has Trump on a path to victory.
I will take Polymarket over Silver. But three weeks remain. Don’t start cheering (either way), until the votes are counted.
The election results should trend toward Trump, with a narrow victory being likely for the Teflon Don.
The election hinges on a single electoral vote in Maine.
Imo Emerson and atlas/intel were most accurate in 2020. They have trump winning all the real clear swings except MN and maybe NV. Seems every ‘interview’ Harris does turns people off more. Crappy working class economy, multiple wars/genocide, crappy storm response while trashing more $ in ukr, what’s to like? They’re both awful, but imo dems/spooks are scary combination.
I have revised my opinion after Fox.
A female Pit Bull is still a dangerous, dumb b-itch.
Imagine putting up with this for the next eight years…we will all be falling out of coconut trees…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0bSTqokjNEE&t=55s
Kamaltoes can’t lose…the (s)electon.
Slippage? The only thing slipping out there is Trump’s mind, ha ha!
The Father of IVF – too funny.
As crude as Trump is he is the perfect man for this time in American history to clear out the rot in the uni-party gravy train. He is tough as nails and cannot be bought.
bwaaahhhhh. he stole money from every charity he’s been near and he’s a lifelong grifter
Headboard’s fellatio skills don’t translate to voters. We don’t care that she can suck a golf ball through a garden hose. We care that she is incoherent, has no career accomplishments and has failed at every job she’s had.
Her campaign is her 100% effort. This is the best she can do. And it’s yet another failure to launch in a congo line of Headboard failures. At least Willie got something out of it. The rest of us don’t.
Kamala: when the empress has no clothes, and it’s not worth seeing.
However, when you think about it, the same was true in 2020.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ji2Z1B2MdMw
have a laugh at our idiocracy……….uniparty
Her slippage is due to voters coming to realize that Trump is the better of the two choices. You might have to hold your nose to vote for Trump like me, but the choice is clear.
Comrade Harris is an empty vessel. She is a creation of The System and does not deserve to be the president.
If she becomes president, then we can say with absolute certainty that The System cheated her into office and American voters are asleep at the wheel and, or possibly have become un-American. Anyone who votes for Comrade Harris has very different values from what our founding fathers had in mind 248 years ago.
Only old people participate in polls. Used to be only old people voted too, but not this time.
Trumpers lovingly embrace poll numbers…
but hatefully reject official election results.
Thanks be to King Chaos the Shit Talker.
So go long VIX.
You don’t have to keep saying this. Headboard isn’t going to do you any ‘special favors’.
THIS race is easier to pick than even 2012. the easiest since 1984 before that one. . harris is a lock. win,cheat,steal,or shoot. not even close.
All the evil Satanic Marxists need to do is keep hitting the Print 10MM votes button until we have well more than we need. Silly conservatives, claiming they know we cheated then never looking for the evidence!!! WHOOPS
if sleepy joe could steal it from his DE basement during a plague, then one would have to bet on Dems easy victory win cheat steal or shoot……..i have made the easy money bet…….
A question for you Mish. If you are correct and the election depends on “Renters” (Young and Black, without much assets, who have been hurt most by inflation). What would/should a policymaker (winner of the election) do in order to help that cohort?
Would the winner of the election find a way to give that population a break (tax cut? Cash?), or, would the winner give them some good advice? (Like, “Pull yourself up with your bootstraps young man!)
If that cohort actually was the group that got one candidate or another elected, how would that candidate “pay them back”?
People are asking a question.
Will I be better off with more of the same with Harris or more of the same with Trump?
not a trick question.
Answer: If you can forget the past 3 1/2 years vote Harris.
Tim Walz as backup plan.
Are you not inspired?
Can always swap out Walz for Mayo Pete, too.
They could also be coming to the conclusion that I did a while back that if you elect Trump, you are done with both of them in 4 years and get 2 fresh candidates but if you elect Kamala you are potentially looking at 8 more years of her.
Watching people hand-wring over TWO indistinct DULL MINDS, and trying to decide what to vote for (“WHAT” as we are voting for two BRAINLESS ENTITIES and they are after all POLITICIANS who are NOT US!
They do not REPRESENT US)…
Voting is like picking through two piles of shit and you are trying to find a scrumptious undigested NUTRICIOUS BIT, like an Almond or a peanut.
IT IS NOT THERE.
THERE IS NOT THERE THERE!
There is no nourishment in these assholes. Think of it this way:
If this were a battle between JFK and TRUMP, who would then be your choice? OR THINK OF ANY POLITICIAN that you admired when you were younger.
COMPARE THOSE IDOLS to these two pieces of slime.
AMERICA HAS FALLEN. There is NO HOPE ANY LONGER. It is TOO BIG OF A MESS to even consider cleaning up.
It has become intolerable.
wrong. democracy works since republic of plato. people vote themselves. their representatives are exactly who the people are.
This ☝️☝️☝️
Politicians are just an extension of the body politic. Not everyone mind you, but the majority. As the American culture degrades is it any wonder that the people continue to pick dullards to lead them? Expect more of the same. What sane person would want the job of President in this set up? I sure wouldn’t. I don’t pay it any mind, and I’m quite happy this way.
i enjoy the comedy aspect. surround sound idiocracy with audience participation my favorite.
Whisky Joe son was a murderer. He failed in Kuba and TX banks. After his
assassination the Dow and WTI popped up. His replacement was worse. His widow
sucked Onassis for cash.
David, everyone is an expert at identifying problems. What solutions can you offer the world?
The solution is embedded in the US Constitution. Reduce the powers assumed by the Feds (and not explicit in the Constitution) and increase the power at the state level. Then, encourage states to innovate. Competition will do the rest–which was always the intention.
“Reduce the powers assumed by the Feds (and not explicit in the Constitution) and increase the power at the state level.”
Almost. Here’s a better one: Reduce the powers assumed by the Feds (and not explicit in the Constitution) and increase the power at the INDIVIDUAL level.
Nope, can’t happen. The U.S. Constitution isn’t the U.S. Constitution but only what the Supreme Court SAYS about the constitution…very different from what the constitution itself says.
Could it be you err by thinking there is a solution to the depths of our exhausted corrupt state? Every nimrod who ever had a solution to a problem, real or perceived, got elected and put one government solution on top of another government policy solution on top of another government policy solution, and so on. Perhaps the solution is nothing and let the fetid mess collapse in order for reality’s rebirth?
If you still vote in Federal elections it means you haven’t been paying attention.
Um..
– Blooms of the Rose
– Shine is off the Apple
– What goes around, Comes around
– Be careful what you Wish for
– She had an Interview
– She was forced into Speaking
– An accurate Poll came out
– Illegals can’t Vote just yet
– They had interviews with real Black People
– They had interviews with real Hispanic People
– Musk Purchased “X”
– Big Business woke up
– Parents woke up
– Young people woke up
– College is being Ditched
– DEI is being Ditched
Take your pick from these, or add another 10 or 20 of your own…
Well, Walz has been accused of nasty things:
https://x.com/BehizyTweets/status/1845637196122042493
and I imagine it is leaking out.
Walz has done absolutely nothing to help Her campaign.
Walz a pedo? I’m shocked, shocked. I figured that out when I heard he used a turkey baster to impregnate his wife.
All of this allegation is in serious dispute, and constitutes the worst kind of election interference possible, if false. If true, Walz is too corrupt to be VP. The truth needs to come out quickly. A Vice-Pedo would give China enormous leverage, little different from Biden and his son.
The engineered questions and answers era has ended. The declination isn’t as drastic as the Soviet television formula in the late 80’s but it’s still severe. Severe enough to kill a politician trying to rely on it for a couple months.
60 Minutes, The View, Oprah’s Celebrity Bash Comedy Hour, some female podcaster about daddy and Howard Stern ain’t gonna cut it.
She’s trying to get on Rogan as a last resort but he doesn’t do scripted questions and no amount of money will make him budge. It would kill his business model.
The country has grown tired of state sponsored “ballet shows” and the puppetry news format. Her staff is fully aware of it now but it’s too late to do anything about it.
I think she is going for the young male audience, and specifically the Black Vote amongst that crowd, for starters.
Of course hoping to corral more of the Young Voter’s from the appearance as well. I am not so sure “Rogans Crowd” is akin to “Word Salads” and will demand “Real Conversation” IMO. This may have more harm than good in the end, but She will find out it appears…
Wow! She fed herself to the good Wolves, and got ripped apart! She can’t Debate, or be filmed Live Period!
What an absolute train wreck that interview was!! She looked like a high school Girl on her first debate team experience. Talk about a fish out of water, man she flopped, flipped, rolled over, and tried to play dead, but couldn’t get away with it. Sort of sad actually to witness such an experience. Judging by her frustration, with herself and inability’s, she is by no way, ready to debate Foreign World Leaders, let alone the Right Leaning Press Obviously! Wow…
The current housing stock is too expensive for zoomers and useless for boomers. The boomers need one floor, no carpets to prevent falling. The second and the third floors are cost centers doing nothing all day, empty nests too high to climb. Homeowners have a target on their backs. There will be a systemic change in the housing market. Trumps understands the housing market. After Bibi softened the Iranian cauldron Trump will expand the Abraham Accord in phase II. He will improve relationship with Putin, MBS and Xi. He will collect money from tariffs and highly skilled workers. President JD Vance, a libertarian, will stay the course and cut gov debt by a third. Harris, as commander in chief, will not be able to deal with Putin MBS and Xi.
There are issues; however, that McMansion housing stock is great for co-housing (2-families eg), running a home business, etc. Alternatively, install an elevator, and three-storey homes could be housing for multiple unrelated seniors with a small staff to assist living.
However, before any thing happens, I expect prices will need to drop significantly to support revenue models
I don’t think Harris will win Michigan at all due to Gaza, so if Trump can just secure Pennsylvania as well he’s good
Double whammy to Harris in MI due to a large Lebanese population.
“Silly” and “fool” ?? You are being too nice, Kamala is a complete imbecile.
The pro-Harris media blitz has run out of gas. I think voters just have gotten fatigued from it within the bad economy in the background.
That is why I expect some desperate efforts by the Democrats as far as multiple October surprises in order to quickly adjust for this.
They’re putting Biden back in, Jack!
The more you see of Creepy Kamala, the less you want to see of her. She’s annoying as heii.
During his appearance with the Economic Club of Chicago
Donald Trump Interrupts Interview To Tell Women Evil Migrants Will Kill Them
That’s pretty much par for the course for what is currently; seemingly successfully; attempted passed off as “economics” in our not-so-little Idiotopia.
Evil, pet eating, Migrants are just as; heck, actually much more; likely to kill them, as “the system collapsing” will ever be, after all.
this blog has been infested with maga cult. happened to zerohedge and countless other decent blogs. it’s like fleas or termites…….not sure how mish can do anything. it truly is a weird cult. it’s like moonies went mainstream or something. they’ll be writing about this for ages…………i kind of find it fascinating. like an anthropologist would finding a weird new culture somewhere……….
Translation: people are saying things I don’t like, and they need to be stifled.
That is the one thing that identifies the looney left.
NOPE. i love the comical entertainment. i also liked this blog when there were ideas for investing to make money. kooky cults are fine. but they have now infested everywhere it seems. like termites.
It will go back to that once the election cycle dies down.
Right now almost everything is on hold until the election is decided. That includes business plans which will alter dramatically depending on who gets elected so how can you sensibly invest right now other than day / short term trading?
you forgot to finish your smug monologue with reminding us how the economy is doing great and that border has been secure since Biden took office
And that allowing men to play in women’s sports is the new definition of good sportsmanship. That’s lost on anybody without a degree and a salary over 200k.
go back to your pronouns forums then
Lemme guess, we’re all a bunch of Racist Misogynists?
Fascist racist xenophobic nativist transphobic misogynist deplorables
Have you considered going out and pulling the wings off of Flies. That will really really prove your manliness.
-32 votes. i seem to have hit the target, mish. pardon the pun as target is a good pest killing product.
We’re ridiculing your opinions. You wearing that as a badge of honor is hilarious.
Do you think that Headboard will give you a willie brown if you simp for her? I thought she was out of the knee pad business.
From across the pond in the UK, my impression is that there is a mind at work in the orangeman; I don’t agree with a lot of his policy statements, but I know what he’s about. But Harris seems totally different – there does not seem to be anyone there, as if she’s standing for president by mistake, and making it up as she goes along. My dad would probably have called her a wishbone in search of a backbone.
Mike, I don’t have any hard evidence to give you in support of my spidey sense opinion about this…just an odd suspicion that intel controlled polls and news are “allowing” Trump’s momentum to build so that the global technocrats can dump the pre-engineered “splendid little world war” on the Republican candidate. Let HIM deal with the breakdown of the U.S.? Take THAT America firster…we’ll turn you into a globalist yet? Yeah, I know, it sounds crazy.
Bill Clinton threw Kammy under with his talk about unvetted and dangerous immigration. Barry threw her under the bus denigrating black men. He’s not that stupid. Spidey sense indeed.
Or they can’t keep the financial house of cards standing any longer.
Exactly! Do to Trump what they did to Obama, leave a burning bag of dogpoop on the WH doorstep for him to stomp out.
Trump’s a little smarter than that however, remember he dealt with these lowlifes for four years and is more than a little wise to their tricks. I”m sure he’s got plans for them as well.
Churchill said it best…
After trying everything to pretend otherwise, Americans still don’t want a complete imbecile in the White House.
Her attempting genocide of the white mountain people in Tennessee didn’t help.
hat tip genocidal zionists and nazis…………
It’s funny to see Headboard voters get triggered.
agree with that and this even more so. ““As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”― H.L. Mencken, On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe
Harris media blitz not good. Every time she is seen or heard she loses more votes.
Word salad totally describes when this woman speaks. How did she get this far? Not a thought in her head how to improve the country. Ha, ha, maybe the Democrats should have stuck with Brandon.
Where did Bloomberg dig up that boorish Limey in Chicago?
Notice her little tiny pearl ear rings.
Absolutely confirmed and documented that they are electronic receivers to get the handlers telling her what to say.
When the low IQ Cackler was answering questions in the debate some time ago, I KNEW she was getting answers in her ear. Some new technology!!!
NOW ABSOLUTELY CONFIRMED, BUT SWEPT OFF THE NET that that WAS / IS the happening!!!
Trump 56%, Harris 42% in latest London betting, which has called every election since 1866 but two: Truman beat Dewey in 1948 & Trump beat Hillary in 2016, where she was up 9 points in every poll on today’s date, 2016. Just one reason why no educated person pays any attention to polls whatsoever.
been punting on politics since the 1970s. it’s a good gauge, but not as good as you think. i don’t give a hoot who wins D or R uniparty here in pax dumbfuckistan. i only vote in 2 us states and one EU old empire, Italia. here is one source of track record of betting. https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/other/potus-odds/
i do think harris is a shoe in to win. don’t care and certainly don’t care if i am right or wrong. i am wrong 80% of the time trading for decades and have done stellar…………..
You vote in two states in the same election?
That’s why he thinks Harris is a “shoe in”.
He’s hoping that by simping for Headboard, he’ll get the willie brown special.
i agree polls are useless. only a couple worth a damn. and not enough track record………….the crumbling empire has some good entertainment though. 2 lunatic parties. voted in by lunatics……..democracy works…………..old story
It could have something to do with the observable fact that she’s a soulless windup drone, able to spout the Marxist line without regard to context.
Sky News has as much credibility as the National Inquirer. The stat models show an close race, with a very slight edge to Harris. That’s always been the case. People being manipulated by meaningless delta in the polls is hilarious.
You’re giving Sky News too much credibility.
the vast amount of amerikans are morons. it’s really a good thing. it’s competition for hunting and gathering. my life has been so easy, due this………..
Abortion and “I’m not Trump” are just not enough – especially when delivered by someone who struggles to complete a comprehensible sentence. Other Dems would have been stronger.
This a million percent. I cannot believe they thought putting her up was a good idea. They win with almost anyone else not in Biden admin. No one to blame but themselves
it was enough for Biden.
But it was a different time. In 2020, people were fed up with Trump. In 2024, they’re fed up with Biden/Harris and have forgotten Trump.
Incumbency used to be an advantage before it became a game of musical chairs for clowns.
Incumbency is still an advantage if you are semi-competent during your time in office.
Walz should have gone hunting with their new hero, Dick Cheney.
The invasion of the country by KNOWN criminals is beyond obscene!!
Like my saintly old mother in law said:
“Don’t let them shit on your head open your mouth”
https://www.judicialwatch.org/criminal-illegal-aliens/?
it’s all about the money. only thing that matters in pax dumbfuckistan for past 80 years.
Kamala is an NPC. Three dollar bill. Phony. Being a moron does not help. People see it. Polls are always over sampled Dem. How far ahead was Hillary? Unless they unleash an AI who really knows how to stuff ballots and cover their digital tracks, she is toast.
And the same people missed demented Biden for 3 years. Plus he too had an earpiece implanted during the debates with Trump. And who cares about the polls when they can just steal with vote counting, mail-in voting and non-citizens voting
correct. Ds easy win. win, cheat, steal, or shoot.