Let’s discuss early voting in Texas.
Before discussing the article please note 13.5 points better is an assessment. Texas does not disclose political party in reported early votes.
And it’s amazing how different people report these vote totals. For example, here are a couple of X posts to dispense with.
Total Silliness #1
Total Silliness #2
There is no Texas firewall.
Point Blank Stupidity – No Matter Who Wins.
That projection was on the first day of early voting and not compared to prior elections.
4.5 Percent More Republican. OK . Please be serious.
Let’s see what others say.
Texas’s early vote is 13.5 points bluer than this point in 2024
Today, On Point says Texas’s early vote is 13.5 points bluer than this point in 2024
On Point compares what’s happening now to previous election. This is the right way of doing things. But again, these are modeled results because Texas does not report the political party of early voters.
“As of October 30, 2026, 6,714,746 ballots have been cast in Texas: 248,836 by mail and 6,465,910 in person. Texas does not publish the party of its early voters.”
Slight Signal for Democrats
A Democrat 63 percent chance is not a “slight” signal in my book. It’s a decent signal. And it’s up from 57 percent yesterday.
I spent at lest an hour trying to figure out this site. I confess, I still don’t, but I highlighted in white squares the key ideas. The charts continue.
I do understand the highlighted box, even if I don’t quite understand how On Point got there.
- If the early vote ends where it is pointing, Paxton needs Election Day voters to break R +12.7 to win, 4.1 points redder than the R +8.6 the forecast expects of them.
- With the forecast holding, Election Day lands near R +9.1.
- Benchmarks assume the rest of the early vote keeps the gap seen so far and Election Day votes as the forecast expects.
- The forecast builds the early vote into the electorate it simulates, so this read is a check against the forecast, not an addition to it. Polls of the last 30 days leave out Rasmussen, ActiVote and Wedgewood, as the site average does.
The key point is that On Point estimates Republicans are running 4.1 points behind turnout that it projects for election day.
In other words that’s three assumptions. But at least we have a methodology, whether I understand it or not.
Finally, note the 63 percent chance, now closer to the betting markets.
On Point vs Yesterday
13 points bluer yesterday, 13.5 points bluer today.
G. Elliott Morris
Vote Hub
Ryan Data and Research
This is from two days ago. So figure a bit of improvement for Democrats since the.
Please consider Ryan Data and Research Early Voting Texas Day Eight.
The data for this report came from the current database of all registered voters maintained by Ryan Data & Research and the lists of people who voted were provided by each county following each day of voting.
Data for previous elections is based on registered voter databases maintained by Ryan Data & Research during prior election cycles.
Ryan Field Definitions
- Rep (No D): Voters who have voted in a previous Republican Primary and have no previous Democrat Primary history.
- Mixed Pri / R: Voters who have previously voted in both party’s primary, but most recently voted in a Republican Primary.
- Dem (No R): Voters who have voted in a previous Democrat Primary and have no previous Republican Primary history.
- Mixed Pri / D: Voters who have previously voted in both party’s primary, but most recently voted in a Democrat Primary.
- Gen Only: Voters who have not previously voted in a primary (R or D) but have previous General Election history.
- No History: Voters who have not previously voted in a primary (R or D) and have no previous General Election history.
It hard to look at that chart and conclude Republicans can easily make up that deficit on election day.
Somewhere between two-thirds and three-fourths of the voting is already in.
This helps explain the previous On Point statement “If the early vote ends where it is pointing, Paxton needs Election Day voters to break R +12.7 to win, 4.1 points redder than the R +8.6 the forecast expects of them. “
Analysis from a Ryan Data Subscriber
This is on TX-01, TX-02, TX-03, TX-04.
Prediction time: Talarico wins by more raw votes than Cruz beat Beto in 2018. I think my R1-4 and D1-4 numbers are in the ballpark but I think that ticket splitting at the senate race costs Paxton about 100,000 votes (around 2.5% what should be his voters) about half of which get added to Talarico and that the elevated general only and no history turnout indicates the same enthusiasm amongst Democrats with no primary history as with D1-4 and the actual split in that group significantly exceeds a 3% tilt to Democrats.
To sum up, if you think that Paxton is winning you have to stick to the following assumptions:
-Republican voter turnout is going to accelerate at rates higher than they are already
-There is no such thing as an Abbott/Talarico voter
-The people who are general election only and new voters are not only immune to trends but in fact going to shift more Republican than they were 4 years ago in a year where Democrats are currently nearly doubling their turnout from 4 years agoKeep in mind that this is after more than a quarter BILLION dollars have been spent to prop up Republicans in Texas.
So my question to the hardcore MAGA voters is this: is picking the literal worst person possible in the primary and losing with them after spending millions which could have been spent in other races worth removing someone who votes with you 99% of the time?
I think that’s the worst trade deal in the history of trade deals.
[Mish Note: Matt is discussing Trump trashing Senator John Cornyn for John Paxton with MAGA bragging about the vote. ]
Trump Got What He Wanted in Texas Senate Primary, But So Did Democrats
Flashback May 27, 2026 MishTalk: Trump Got What He Wanted in Texas Senate Primary, But So Did Democrats
Trump is gloating now over Ken Paxton. But he’s gloating over a loss.
Either Trump or the Democrats are wrong, and it’s not the Democrats.
Texas Does Not Have to Flip to Matter
The Gift of Overreach
Michael Sellers explains Paxton Win in Texas Gives Dems the Gift of Trumpian Overreach; Can They Take Advantage of It?
If Texas becomes genuinely competitive, Republicans have a problem even if Paxton ultimately wins. Money spent defending a seat that should have been safe is money not spent elsewhere. Time spent managing Paxton’s liabilities is time not spent prosecuting the case against Democratic incumbents. National Republican strategists do not want to be forced to pour resources into Texas when there are competitive races in states like Maine, Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, Alaska, and Georgia.
Governing the War
Trump did make governing the war harder. And if my Senate projection is correct, make that impossible.
My base case is Democrats win the Senate.
Four Things
- The betting markets
- Consumer sentiment
- Inflation
- Polls
The Senate odds keep wavering between 50 and 51 seats to Republicans.
But I was at 51 when Kalshi was at 49. [October 30, 2026 Mish Note: That should Polymarket, not Kalshi] Since then, the betting markets have come around to my view. That view is Republicans lose Maine, North Carolina, Alaska, and Ohio.
I was at Alaska and Ohio before Kalshi [Polymarket, likely both].
Q: Why?
A: I expect Republicans will lose every race considered a tossup.
If I can brag, I believe my May 27 Senate call is looking pretty good right now.
I have only seen one other setup like this. That was 2008. And in January of 2008 I made a similar but bolder call. Democrats would win every state labeled a tossup, and then some.
In January of 2008, I projected states. That was when Obama was still battling Hillary for the nomination. I got 49 of 50 states correct.
Nate Silver got 50 of 50. But I got 49 of 50 in January before much polling.
Biggest Unforced Error in History
The war in Iraq was the biggest unforced error in political history. It will end up destroying MAGA and Trump’s legacy.
Unfortunately, we still have to put up with Trump for two more years.
Here’s my preliminary House estimate October 25, 2026: Mish Fearless House Forecast: Democrats 239 vs Cook Political 227-237
Seat-by-seat I explain my projections.
Today Cook Political revised its House forecast again.
Link: While Democrats won’t reach the 257 seats they had following President Barack Obama’s election — a high water mark for them this century — they could surpass the majorities they had following the 2006 and 2018 blue wave cycles.
We’re now projecting that Democrats will flip 12 to 25 seats, giving them as many as 240 seats in the House. Under the updated ratings, if Democrats win the seats they’re favored in, along with all 18 Toss Ups, they would have 240 seats.
For now, I will stick with 239 because I have not had a chance to review 12 more Cook Political changes favoring Democrats,
But my 239 is no longer outside their range.
So, if you want to compare this election to something, think 2008. Even Cook Political is now doing that!
Sometime before the election I will post final Senate odds and project every House and Senate race.
Related Posts
October 26, 2026: Trump’s Eight Huge Unforced Errors Will Set MAGA Back for Years
The disintegration of MAGA is underway. Trump gets 100 percent of the blame.
October 29, 2026: The Betting Odds Are All Breaking the Same Way, Towards Democrats
This isn’t random. So what is it?
October 30, 2026: Two New Kansas Senate Polls and the Betting Market’s Reaction
More things are looking favorable for Democrats as final polls arrive ahead of election day.
October 29, 2026: Surprise, Surprise! The Polls Catch Up with the Betting Markets Today
This morning, I was trying to make sense of the discrepancy between the polls and the betting markets.
Looking forward to the Nazi return to power. The english translation for the Nazi party (Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei) is National Socialist German Workers’ Party. True fact. Look it up. After this election, it will become more obvious.
They put socialist in the title to bullshit stupid people.They were fascist to the bone.
I’m in downtown Austin and there was a heck of a line for early voting at city hall this afternoon. I know it’s the last day of early voting, but I didn’t expect so many since it was quite rainy outside. Lots of young people (which is pretty much everybody compared to me, ha)
Polls are often wrong though this one might be correct. However, if this poll is correct, it will represent an historical change from the past.
This is a combination of polls, betting markets, early voting, Trump crowds, and the economy.
I suspect polls underrate Democrats.