What happened to Bessent’s “I am the house” theory?
Long Term Bond Yields
- 30-Year: 5.70 percent, highest since 5.76 percent on June 6, 2002
- 10-Year: 5.32 percent, highest since 5.36 percent on April 2, 2002
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said “I am the house now. Bet against me if you want” on Tuesday, September 8, 2026.
What Is Bessent Saying Now?
Bessent “I am the House”
House Fact Check
- 30-Year Bond Yield September 8, 2026: 5.25%
- 10-Year Bond Yield September 8, 2026: 4.80%
- 30-Year Bond Yield October 7, 2026: 5.70%, up 45 basis points
- 10-Year Bond Yield October 7, 2026: 5.32%, up 52 basis points
Question of the Day
Q: Do You Regret Saying I Am the House?
A: Bessent “No.”
Fact Check: Obvious Lie
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[…] October 7, 2026: Long-Term Bond Yields Surge to New 24-Year Highs […]
Bessent is a fleck of bird dung on the bond market’s windshield, on a good day
Do higher interest rates make stock buybacks more expensive. Just asking for a friend.
Government Interest rates are still low considering todays High Risk, High unpayable debt, uncontrolled debt and the constant out of control spending into politically made money pits from the US and all European countries.
I find the 2 year to 30 year U.S. Treasury spread of interest. In 2021 it went out to 240 basis points as against 90 basis points currently and with a combination of broad money expanding at about 7.5% a year and huge demand for credit not only via government deficits but A.I credit demand combined with the massive input to the real economy the A.I. spend is doing I see no reason why the 2 to 30 year spread could not go out to the levels seen in 2021. On that basis the 30 year has another 150 basis points to move. That would take the 30 year yield to about 7.20 yield. Hold onto your hats.
I understand your ‘analysis’ but it doesn’t account for the underlying factor you picked a random and completely weird period of 2021 to compare the ‘base’ scenario of 240-point spread.
The two-year yield closely follows the short-term fed funds rate which was brought to zero in 2021 during and after COVID (as was the two-year yield). That is NOT normal and so any yield-spread comparison to that time period is not how I would invest my money in the short term. Be aware.
The curve spread in 2021 was a random example, but is relevant. The spread may well tighten or be inverted at some point but that is more than likely on the brink of or during a recession. The U.S. economy is ticking along nicely thanks to fiscal deficits and capital expenditure on A.I. I could also have chosen other random examples of the curve steepening. Oct 2025 137 b. p, Oct 2013 356 b. p., April 2011 391 b. p. , July 2003 341 b. p. or July 1992 357 b.p.
A strong economy combined with rising broad money supply does not indicate to me at least that the curve is about to flatten but steepen further.
Then invest your money accordingly. That’s what makes a market.
But your ‘analysis’ had the conclusion the 30-year bond was going to 7.2% (based upon a 30-2 year spread you calculated for 2021).
My market bet is that you’re wrong. I think long-term bond yields will continue to increase (as they already have in the past month). But we won’t see 7.2% on the 30-year bond for quite some time.
If you’re right, you should be shorting long-term bonds like crazy right now. Are you?
More bucks, faster feed
Their smart bombs recognize us.
Buh bye, you and me.
Treasury yields are back to where they were 25 years ago. The reason why Bessent is operating out of a crumbling house is that the Federal debt-GDP ratio has surged from roughly 30 percent of GDP 25 years ago (God bless Clinton’s highly responsible fiscal policies!) to roughly 100 percent of GDP now. No wonder, Bessent sounds like a complete phony.
Yet Congressional Democrats in 1993 were more fiscally responsible than Clinton.
“Congressional Democrats agreed Monday to cut $56 billion in spending from the president’s economic plan over the next five years. The cuts, which the White House at first opposed, were the direct result of pressure brought by party conservatives and a large number of the 63 Democratic freshmen elected last November.
The plan, a painfully crafted compromise between liberals and conservatives, is expected to bring the federal deficit below $200 billion by 1997, the end of Clinton’s first term.
Although the level of cuts falls short of what Democratic conservatives hoped to achieve, most of them agreed to the deal. Clinton said he needed congressional approval of his plan to spur the budding economic recovery and lay the groundwork for long-term growth.”
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/1993/03/09/democrats-agree-to-cut-56-billion-out-of-plan/
Whatever Bessent’s machinations are He is the HOUSE:
Here’s a list of 30 year treasury auctions going back 2 years.
Auction DateOffering AmountClearing YieldAuction Cycle Type
September 10, 2026$22 Billion5.308%Reopening
August 2026$25 Billion5.216%New Issue
July 2026$22 Billion5.058%Reopening
December 11, 2025$22 Billion4.694%Reopening
Full Year 2025 Avg.~$23 Billion / moCyclical Mid-4%12-Month Total: $276B
September 2024~$20 Billion~4.100%Baseline pre-easing
There weren’t any 30 year Treasuries issued between September 2024 and December 2025, Then starting in May of 2026 Treasury started issuing them like crazy.
It has been the recent issuances from Treasury that have spiked the yields There has been just a small increase in inflation expectations. The big increase has been the expected return to bondholders after inflation.
I don’t know WHY Bessent wants higher yields, but he’s got them.
There is another 30 year Treasury auction tomorrow.
“The U.S. Treasury regularly issued 30-year bonds during this timeframe. For example, in 2025 alone, the U.S. Department of the Treasury held 12 separate auctions of 30-year bonds—one in every single calendar month—selling a total of $276 billion in debt.”
You are simply wrong.
Bonds of any kind are nothing more than IOUs. Avoid them.
Lol. Do you even know what you are talking about? That $20 bill in your pocket is an IOU, it’s literally worthless, not backed by anything. The entire money supply around the world is worthless IOUs but that’s what the world runs on.
i thought i get one ounce of gold for every 20 paper dollars, down at my local bank?
How about China and Japan unloading treasuries? Perennial doomer Ray Daleo thinks it might happen.
https://www.financialexpress.com/market/global-markets/ray-dalio-warns-china-japan-may-cut-demand-for-us-treasuries-flags-risks-of-ai-bubble/4354946/
bessent is simply playing his role as a boot licker in an attempt to accommodate his deranged superior.
Bessent:
So far, you’ve been losing hand after hand after hand. Hmm.
Bessent:
Gee, why don’t you share this information?
Mr. Bessent, I’m confused. If you just play the percentages, you don’t need superior information to win. Statistically, the odds favor the house rain or shine, Monday through Friday.
Mr. Bessent, if you really did have superior information, you’d share it and prove Mr. Market wrong, and you’d prove you are an oracle, but you aren’t doing that.
Oh, are you saying that your “superior information” is that Mr. Trump is a genius? Did I see you signal “wink, wink” to the camera during that interview?
In that case I’m following Mr. Market and selling short. If you are as smart as everyone says, you are doing the same with your insider trades.
I get it now — thanks for the tip! You guys are fantastic!
Bessent seemed to think he was a bond trader, making short-sighted moves. Somebody should remind him he is the US Secretary of the Treasury. But all these cabinet guys act like they think they are hot shots. Just like the boss. They remind me of a swaggering caricature of a 1980s action (Dolf Lundgren level) or cheesy Wall Street film. They are all being bitch-slapped by reality at the moment, which would be hilarious, if we weren’t handcuffed to them.
Excellent, Peelo. Funny until you realize you’re a passenger on the train wreck.
Port lander, I regret that I have but one tiny thumbs-up to give for this comment.
Scotty Basement. Howie the Duck. Pete Smegmabreath. Plus several cretins not even worth mocking. Worst cabinet in Presidential cabinet history. Wait until you fully understand train wreck that is happening to agriculture. JD Dunce. Peter NavaOreo. It just gets worse and worse. Every single thing is point-blank stewpudd. There is no sign of intelligent life.
Meanwhile, not entirely OT:
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/guilfoyle-amex-donor-100-000-0e02cdc3
TL:DR Trump admin appointee begs donor for $100K wired to her Amex account, claiming it won’t leave a paper trail.
Good times, good times.
Typical latina, running up bills, saying “ay, mi!!”
Too cocky>>>>>>>>>>> too SOON!
Obviously, the bond markets just have TDS!
(yes, that was sarcasm….)
Good time to start building a bond ladder if you haven’t already. We all know how this ends, with Trump screwing everything up so bad, emergency rate drops at some point and then way more inflation.
Agree 105.7% on building a bond ladder here!
This is fine.
It’s always been fine.
If stocks do crash will be the final nail in the coffin for Trump. Although the market has been rocky, a lot of investors are feeling good and likely to forgive Trump for many errors. But when the nest egg goes south, they may not be so forgiving.
Nope… wont sway the remaining believers one little bit and they’re enough to keep the shitshow playing. He’s the antichrist. Conventional logic and reality do not apply.
DT… Damien Thorn
It will sway the Oligarchs. Especially the ones who would face margin calls.
The oligarchs don’t need Trump – they can drop him any time.
It’s the little maga folk who need him.
Market has been rocky? And by rocky you mean after rock-eting up its annual 15-20% it paused. My God we’ve created an entire generation or two that thinks real-returns MUST be 15+% or we’ll use terms to describe the market as “rocky”.
Investors or any asset holder in this K-shaped economy cannot possibly, without severe cognitive dissonance, believe they aren’t better off than they were last year…or frankly the year before or the year before. Save for Covid and a very tiny temporary blip in 2018, it’s been a relentless enrichment process.
The bond market is just now trying to get its just yield for providing the debt financing that is used to inflate the equity market.
When the bough breaks {US and global composite equities devalue sharply, (like starting tomorrow)}, TYX and TNX interest rates will fall … as money exiting equities enters the relatively ‘greatly undervalued’ debt market … A 5+% ten year rate (retired and sold after a couple of years) in a significant recession is a good deal.
Atlanta’s and St. Louis’ gdp reports out on the 8th and 9th. Should see whether the economy is slowing.
This menu of adversities gives me a very 2007-08 feel. Gas spiked then. Credit card (after new laws) minimum payments had increased; it was the end of a credit era. the gold rush of housing finance technology (and piggybacked credit on top of it) was getting weird. The “global war on terror” had soured. This has that converging cluster feel.
What an absolute tool. Just spouting incoherent nonsense, utterly incoherent.
He’s also got the administration playbook down – shout ‘FAKE NEWS’ when a publication has the audacity to point out the administration mistakes.
Hegseth is hands down the biggest tool in the administration – but Bessent is doing his level best to make a run at him. Oh I almost forgot about Stephen Miller… and wait what about Peter Navarro…. and Howard Lutnick.
Dear lord I give up. It’s like an arms race for biggest tool in the universe.
I’d add Rubio and Ratcliffe. They may have a couple more IQ points than the tools you listed, but they’re still in favor of dumb and evil policies.
Yeah the list is pretty long and deep. Ratcliff is definitely on it, and Rubio gets honorable mention because he is definitely the most intelligent of the bunch but has whored himself out to drumpf because he lusts for more power. I just honestly didn’t bother thinking beyond Lutnick bc it was so depressing going through the list that I had to give up to protect my sanity.
And then you have the pretty young bimbo mouthpiece communication staff who mindlessly read the party line to the press, plus incel Stephen Cheung spewing the incessant administration nonsense.
Rubio is too short to be President. He is too dumb to realize this.
Judging by the past convictions in the republican party the epstien files clear things out pretty quick. Jan 6 files will do the rest.