The winner of the debates will win Iowa senate race. The governorship is settled.
Suffolk University Poll
A high-quality Suffolk University Poll opens up a four-point lead for Democrats.
Over the past two months, Iowa Democratic State Representative Josh Turek has overtaken Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson in the closely watched race for US Senate, 48%-44% with 6% of voters still undecided. In a Suffolk University poll conducted in August, it was Hinson who led Turek 45%-41%.
In the Iowa governor’s race, Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand now has a commanding lead over Republican businessman Zach Lahn, 55%-43% with just 2% voters still undecided. In Suffolk’s August poll, Sand led by a more modest four points, 48%-44%.
The statewide results almost exactly mirror the midterm Iowa bellwether of Muscatine County, where Turek leads 46%-44% with 7% undecided, and Sand leads 51%-41% with 8% undecided. In the Senate race, the outcomes of both the statewide and bellwether polls are within the statistical margin of error.
The most recent poll showed Turek is leading 58%-30% among those likely voters who consider themselves independents, and in Muscatine County he leads 60%-23% among that same group. He appears to be paring away some voters who chose Trump for president in 2024. In the statewide poll Turek received 7% of Trump voters, while in Muscatine County he received 9%.
The highest demographic concentration among undecided voters in both surveys was of nonwhite voters—a group often ignored in a state that is predominantly white. In the statewide poll, 21% of nonwhite voters were undecided and 12% of nonwhite voters were undecided in Muscatine County, home to a higher number of Hispanic/Latino voters than the rest of the state.
Independent voters are key swing bloc across the Midwest
The behavior of independent voters is shaping up to be especially important in midterm races in swing states like Iowa, Ohio, and Michigan, said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
“We’re seeing overwhelming support for Democratic nominees among those who identify as independents in these three states,” Paleologos said. “These are the people who swing state elections. They feel unfavorably about a range of issues, including the war in Iran, high fuel prices, their own strained personal finances, and federal tax benefits for local AI data centers that could potentially impact their water and power grids.”
In Suffolk surveys conducted in these three states over the past month, Democratic challengers for Senate seats have large leads among the influential group of voters who identify as independents in each state. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed leads among independents by 16 points, while in Ohio, former senator Sherrod Brown leads by 27 points among the same voting bloc. In Iowa, Turek is up 28 points among voters who have not chosen a party affiliation.
Suffolk University Iowa Poll Breakdown
Debate Schedule Overview
- First Debate (Tonight): October 7, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM local time
- Host: Iowa PBS
- Participants: Republican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic State Representative Josh Turek
- Second Debate (Upcoming): October 13, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM CDT (Pre-debate special at 8:30 PM)
- Host: WHO 13 and Nexstar (Debate Night Iowa)
- Participants: Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek
The winner of the debates will take Iowa.
How Betters and Aggregators See the Iowa Senate Election
- Nate Silver Deluxe: 61.3 percent Democrat
- Nate Silver Classic: 57.7 percent Democrat
- Nate Silver Lite: 63.3 percent Democrat
- Kalshi: 54 percent Republican
- Polymarket: 54 percent Republican
- Mish: 52 percent Democrat
Q: Is Nate Silver too overconfident of Democrats?
A: I think so. Anything can happen in two debates.
I will give a nod to a quality poll, but will feel more confident of polls taken after the debates.
What I Do Differently
I look at the polls and betting markets, and then I factor in my expectations of the economy, making an educated guess based off that.
The economy (inflation and the war) is why I was at 65 percent for Democrats taking the Senate way before everyone else.
But it’s also why I am reluctant to go any higher right now. There are going to be polling errors, and they could be in either direction.
It’s possible Sue Collins holds Maine. Iowa can easily go Republican. Is Ohio Republican that far-fetched?
Clearly, Silver is factoring out the betting markets. I think that is an additional mistake.
Kalshi Since Labor Day
Kalshi was under 50 percent for Democrats on Labor Day.
Overall Senate Odds Synopsis
- Nate Silver Deluxe: 74.6 percent Democrat
- Nate Silver Classic: 71.3 percent Democrat
- Nate Silver Lite: 73.6 percent Democrat
- Kalshi: 64 percent Democrat
- Polymarket: 65 percent Democrat
- Mish: 65 percent Democrat
Silver is too high on Iowa. For the Senate as a whole, I may be a bit too low now.
Democrats have 7 possible pickups and are ahead in polls in five of them, possibly all 7 depending on what polls you believe.
I am on the verge of calling this a 70 percent thing, but I am not quite there yet.
Ohio, Kansas, Maine, and Iowa are all within or close to the margin of error. It’s possible, the polls have overrated Democrats again.
Any further move in Kansas or Iowa in polls or betting markets would have me at 70 percent.
My best guess on the most likely outcome at the present is a Democrat pickup of 5-6 seats, followed by 4 or 7, followed by 2-3.
If Iowa and Kansas polls move in Democrat’s favor, we are looking at a likely Democrat pickup of 6-7.
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“Clearly, Silver is factoring out the betting markets. I think that is an additional mistake.”
No. Polls are about ALL people’s VOTES. Betting markets are about SOME people’s MONEY.
Very likely that Turek is a conserva-Dem. Add yet another “rotating villain” to the list. Yippee!
Can’t wait to hear the lines about how trans kid socialist furry vampires are behind beef, gas, toilet paper, and car parts becoming luxury items! Bonus points if Epstein is brought up and subsequently tapdanced around faster than Danny Kay on coke.
See this is why you don’t make an entire platform on hate alone. Eventually you run into a problem that can’t be blamed on your boogeyman who is supposedly terrifying and pathetic at the same time.
Don’t be so sure. Americans are experts at cognitive dissonance.
I still remember how they went from the pre-war “Iraq will wage chemical warfare on the eastern seaboard” to “Iraqi aircraft are afraid to take off because if they fly, they die!” in the matter of a few weeks.
Solid analysis !