I expect Democrats will pick up 3 to 6 seats. 4 will win the Senate.
My Base Case
My base case all year has been Democrats win nearly every seat in the House and Senate currently labeled a tossup.
My starting point is the prediction markets but I want do want to see some more polls.
Kalshi Senate Predictions
Please see Kalshi 2026 Senate Prediction Market Prices
This is a forecast map based on the Kalshi prediction market odds for the 2026 Senate election.
Every 15 minutes, the price to buy (the ‘ask’ price) the Democratic or Republican party in each election market is compared.
The Toss-Up tan color is only used where neither party has market odds implying a 55% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Tilt (55%+) Lean (65%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (90%+).
Senate Seats in Play
I have seven Senate seats in play with four switches. I go with Kalshi on Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio. If so, that Gives Democrats the Senate.
Trump has so screwed farmers that I have Iowa and Nebraska in play. And Trump’s meddling with Cornyn puts Texas in play.
Maga Purity
Trump wants to get rid of Sue Collins in Maine and Thom Tillis in North Carolina. He will succeed. Congratulations.
They will be replaced by Senators who instead of voting with Trump 80-90 percent of the time, will vote with him 10-20 percent of the time.
Trump will achieve “Maga Purity”, especially if Paxton loses.
House Seats
Profiles in Cowardice
Tucker
Senator Collins
This is not a shocker to me. Collins losing has been my view all year,
Paxton vs Talarico
I have this as a tossup. I had John Cornyn beating Talarico easily.
I am not the only one to see it that way.
Republican Senators Are Livid at Trump’s Endorsement of Paxton
The New York Times reports Republican Senators Are Livid at Trump’s Endorsement of Paxton
Republican senators reacted angrily on Tuesday to President Trump’s decision to endorse Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general, in the state’s Senate primary runoff, warning that his snub of the incumbent Senator John Cornyn could risk the seat and the party’s fight to keep its majority.
Heading into their weekly G.O.P. luncheon not long after Mr. Trump posted his choice on social media, many Senate Republicans appeared stunned and livid as they learned the news, which dealt a serious blow to Mr. Cornyn, who has served for more than two decades.
“Oh boy,” said a visibly dismayed Senator John Hoeven of North Dakota, as he left the Senate chamber after hearing of Mr. Trump’s announcement.
“Well, obviously,” he added, “I support Senator Cornyn.”
A stone-faced Senator Roger Wicker of Mississippi refused to answer questions about the endorsement as he exited the chamber following a vote.
Senator Lisa Murkowski, the Alaska Republican whose independent streak has often angered the president, said that she was “supremely disappointed” by Mr. Trump’s decision.
Then she went a step further, saying that the president’s endorsement of Mr. Paxton, a scandal-plagued conservative firebrand, could cost Republicans what had been considered a safe Senate seat.
“I think that this puts that seat in jeopardy,” she told reporters.
Many Senate Republicans, including the majority leader, John Thune of South Dakota, had been urging Mr. Trump to back Mr. Cornyn, whom they saw as a stronger candidate in a general election. The president’s decision to do otherwise amounted to a slap at Mr. Thune, an institutionalist like Mr. Cornyn.
“It’s his decision,” Mr. Thune told reporters of Mr. Trump as he entered the party luncheon at the Capitol, throwing up a hand in a gesture of exasperation.
“None of us control what the president does,” Mr. Thune said later. “He made his decision. That doesn’t change the way I feel.”
The endorsement was also likely to further sour an already tense relationship between Mr. Trump and some Republican senators who have bristled at his tactics and decisions during his second term, as the G.O.P. has deferred to him rather than insisting on the Senate’s tradition of independence.
With just a narrow majority, Senate leaders already faced challenges muscling through many of the president’s priorities.
But they are now worried that the defeat of Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana by a Trump-backed challenger last week and the president’s rejection of Mr. Cornyn will further complicate their efforts to pass consequential legislation, according to two leadership aides who requested anonymity to discuss internal political considerations.
Even Mr. Trump’s most loyal allies in the Senate had concerns.
Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina said that Mr. Trump had a right to his endorsement. But, he added, “you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out the pathway for Paxton is there, but it’s more uphill.”
Mr. Graham said that he believed the Texas Senate race would likely become more expensive and competitive with Mr. Paxton as the nominee.
“What we’ve got to do is raise a lot more money now,” Mr. Graham said.
It’s the Corruption
A Word About MAGA Morals
God Wanted the Ballroom
What It Boils Down To
The election will come down to inflation, turnout, independents, women, youth voting, Hispanics, and Catholics.
Every one of those is hugely negative for Trump. I don’t see any of those changing by the election.
That is why I think Trump will end up losing nearly everything currently labeled tossup.
Things can change, and if they do, I will change my call. I just don’t expect to have to.
Related Posts
May 21, 2026: Trump’s Ouster of Massie and Endorsement of Paxton Is a Sad Day for the US
Emboldened by his ouster of Massie, Trump endorses a horribly flawed Paxton.
May 21, 2026: Debt, Inflation, and Populism Renewed Inflation and Is Killing the Bond Market
The Fed will not be cutting rates any time soon.
May 21, 2026: GOP Senators Break with Trump Over $1.8 Billion ‘Anti-Weaponization’ Slush Fund
Republican Sen. Thom Tillis, who is retiring after the president regularly criticized him, called it a ‘payout pot for punks’.
As a former Republican farm owner, I can not see why anyone with a conscience could vote for any Republican.
After watching them support Trump and his lack of allegiance to our nations founding principals and Constitution, I say “Your Fired” to all Republicans.
I’m off to build some soil and grow a healthy future!
Pump the brakes Walmart stock plunges as soaring gas prices hit profits and slam shoppers’ wallets
The thing sat at $25 forever from 2000-2017, then quintupled in the past 9 years
Bubblicious
+++++++++++
…and from the “If Only Dept.”
If you had invested $1,000 in Walmart stock in 1972 and reinvested all dividends, it would be worth approximately $20–30 million today, depending on the exact purchase date in 1972 and the valuation date used.
Jamie Dimon says JPMorgan will hire more AI braniacs, fewer bankers
So much for DEI…lolz…”AI braniacs” is not a diverse group
Fyi, most will likely be from foreign countries, just like Silicon Valley
a 3rd choice could be better