I expect Republicans will lose nearly every seat the consensus now labels as tossup.
What Is a Blue Wave?
Polymarket This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
– Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
– Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the SenateOtherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
House Nearly Guaranteed for Democrats
218 House seats is a very easy target. I expect a Republican bloodbath.
In the consensus map, there are currently 18 tossup seats, 17 Lean-Democrat seats, and 3 Lean-Republican seats.
Mentally put all 17 Lean-Democrat and 18 tossups seats in the Democrat column. That would give Democrats 230.
And that’s the bare minimum I expect. The top end is easily in the 240s.
Polymarket Senate Odds
The Blue Wave question really comes down to “Will Democrats pick up at least two senate seats?”
But a Blue Wave only requites two pickups. A “win” for democrats requires 51 seats, a pickup of four.
Please note the Polymarket question Which party will win the Senate in 2026? has recently flipped to Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
As I type, Democrats have a 56 percent chance.
How Bad Can the Senate Get for Republicans?
In a singled word “Very.”
The consensus map has 4 tossups and 2 lean republicans.
The tossups are Michigan, Maine, North Carolina, and Georgia. I expect all of those to end up in the Democrat column. But that’s only a net pickup of two. Georgia and Michigan are already Blue.
The consensus is Ohio and Alaska are tossups. I believe both are going Blue. That would be two more pickups, and control of the Senate.
I even have Iowa and Texas in play.
Q: Why Iowa?
A: Farmers are getting killed twice, first by tariffs, second by war policy that blasted fertilizer and diesel prices higher. How much more can farmers take?
Q:Why Texas?
A: It depends on whether Republicans are foolish enough to choose Ken Paxton over U.S. incumbent Senator John Cornyn.
MAGA is for Paxton despite the fact that Cornyn has a far better chance of winning the election, at least in my view.
It’s a case of vindictive politics by Trump and MAGA over a Senator who votes with Trump 90 percent of the time.
That’s not good enough for MAGA or Trump which demand perfect loyalty. And as I have said, Trump prefers loyalty over winning.
Right now, Paxton is a 61-39 Polymarket favorite to win the runoff. The splintering is a plus for Democrats, especially if Paxton wins.
The Betting Markets
I think the betting markets generally have things right.
Polymarket has the right direction for sure. Democrats have gone from 24 percent on October 24, 2025, to 56 percent on April 12, 2026.
Kalshi House Predictions
Over 240 is my top end of how nasty things can get for Republicans in the House.
Kalshi Senate Predictions
Kalshi Links
Mish Election Theory
As noted, my current forecast is that nearly every tossup seat in the House and Senate will break hard for Democrats.
I do not see my theory changing by the election. But the starting point easily can, higher or lower.
My “nowcast” numbers are current estimates of what would happen IF the election was today.
Mish Current Nowcast House
If my theory holds, the current “nowcast” looks like 230-240+ for the House.
Things are going so bad for Trump economically and politically that lean Republican is in play for Democrats.
But the reverse is not true. Lean Democrat is not in play for Republicans.
Mish Current Nowcast Senate
My base case right now is 49 Senate Seats for Democrats, a pickup of two, sufficient for a Blue Wave.
But let’s dive deeper with a look at key races.
Key Senate Races
My current nowcast is Democrats are +4 with two more outside shots in play.
In Iowa, how much more losing can farmers put up with?
In Texas, I believe Cornyn would beat Talarico today, but the election is not today, and it is unclear who will oppose Talarico.
Texas Turnout Is Key
Texas is one of those states that is perennially said to soon be purple, always dashed on the hard rocks of reality.
This is likely the Democrat’s best real shot in decades. However, Talarico has a lot of progressive issues that will not go over well with most White Texas voters.
Texas will boil down to how energetic voters are on election day.
Here’s the good news for Democrats: Forty percent of Texas is Hispanic. And 13.7 percent of Texas is black. Factor in disgruntled youths.
I expect a massive surge of Hispanic voters to switch from Trump.
If White turnout is low, Talarico is going to win. You heard it here first.
A Word About Loyalty
Trump is more interested in loyalty than fielding winning candidates.
In prior elections, Trump’s loyalty requirement cost Republicans two Senate seats in Georgia, one in Pennsylvania, and one in Arizona.
That’s right. Republicans could easily have had 57 Senate seats instead of 53. Democrats can thank Trump.
The loyalty requirement is also why Trump has dysfunctional departments of Defense, Homeland Security, FBI, National Security, and Justice.
Vengeful Trump
On January 8, the New York Times reported A Vengeful Trump Urges Voters to Oust Republicans, Including Collins
With Republican control of the Senate at risk in November, President Trump on Thursday took the unusual step of urging the defeat of his party’s most vulnerable incumbent, Senator Susan M. Collins of Maine.
After she and four other Republicans joined with Senate Democrats to vote to start a debate over restricting the president’s ability to use military force in Venezuela, Mr. Trump used social media to take a harsh shot at them.
“Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Rand Paul, Josh Hawley, and Todd Young should never be elected to office again,” Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social, condemning their “stupidity” and saying that Republicans should be “ashamed” of the senators from Maine, Alaska, Kentucky, Missouri and Indiana.
We may be adding Texas and Maine to the list of Senate seats sabotaged by Trump. My base case is Collins loses. Trump will get his Collins wish.
I do not at all rule out Democrats gain five seats or even six seats in the Senate.
What a shocking turnaround if that were to happen.
Understanding My Theory
Nearly every tossup seat in the House and Senate will break hard for Democrats.
I never discussed why.
It’s the economy stupid, and wars, and deportation ugliness, inflation promises, Epstein, arrogance, etc. You get the idea.
The last time I made a call like this was in 2008. My call then was the same. I got 49 of 50 states correct before the nomination was even in the bag for Obama.
Flashback February 10, 2008: Obama: The Next President Of The United States
Meet Barack Obama, the next president of the United States of America.
Unstoppable momentum is now a gale force wind propelling Barack Obama towards the Democratic nomination. That same wind is blowing stiffly in the face of Hillary Clinton and even more so (when it comes to the presidential election) John McCain.
Grass roots will carry the banner for the first time since McGovern in 1972. Barack Obama will win the Democratic nomination and go on to beat McCain in the presidential election of 2008.
The reason, believe it or not, is an attitude change about “walking away”.
Destiny: Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States of America.
Massive Attitude Change
In my 2008 post, I discussed walking away in terms of the economy (housing) and the war in Iraq.
History thymes. We are discussing Mideast ineptitude again, this time Iran instead of Iraq.
Obama did not clinch the nomination until June 3, 2008. My post was February 10, 2008.
Most expected Hillary to win. The warmongers and establishment certainly wanted Hillary to win.
My post brought out an amazing number of taunts. I was called a “N***** Lover” and many other unprintable things, just for making a prediction.
I had two friends in private emails tell me I was crazy when I listed the states I expected Obama to win.
One friend replied “What planet are you on thinking Obama will carry North Carolina and Virginia?”
My friend’s reply was understandable. Obama’s win marked the first time a Democratic candidate won states like Virginia and North Carolina in decades.
The thing is, I never voted for Obama. I have not voted for a major political party for decades. In 2008, I wrote in Ron Paul.
I am proud of that vote, And I am proud of my vote in the last election.
On October 31, 2024, I announced I Wrote In “Mish” for President of the United States
People told me I wasted my vote.
Many people told me that a Libertarian vote was a vote for Kamala. I had others tell me that a Libertarian vote was a vote for Trump.
Logically, a vote for “Mish” was a vote for me, no one else. I refuse to vote for lesser of two evils.
Here’s someone who feels the same.
MAGA Is Now an Obedience Cult
I am told I must consent to my own betrayal to avoid a greater evil. I refuse. My vote is not a hostage to be bartered. It is a sacred instrument of accountability, and I will not wield it to endorse my own subjucation.The movement that promised to be a coalition of patriots has devolved into an obedience cult of mindless idiots demanding loyalty even as it marches in the opposite direction of its founding principles.
The cult itself will never see itself for what it is. They will even cheer as unworthy those who leave.
The Economy or Attitudes?
People are sick of inflation, wars, deportation terror, lies, Epstein, etc.
Q: What does the election ultimately boil down to?
A: Attitudes about all of the above things.
Trump won the battle of attitudes in 2024. The economy, like everything else, feeds attitudes.
In 2024, Trump won over many Hispanics, Blacks, and young voters, with record inroads. In 2025 and especially 2026, attitudes have since shifted back in a major way. You can see the shift in every poll.
People are not just sick of the economy. They are sick of Trump, the person, for his massive set of lies and arrogance about everything.
Two Key Things
Trump promised no more wars. And he promised to bring inflation down. Specifically, Trump promised to cut gasoline and electricity prices in half, repeatedly.
He also promised to release the Epstein files.
In 2024, voters gave Trump and Republicans the benefit of the doubt on those messages. It was easy to do then because the opposition was a senile president and a despised Kamala Harris.
Everyone but the cult now knows Trump lied. The cult even cheers the war. No one else does.
Trump Likes Hanging Around With Losers
On March 28, in a roomful of billionaires, Trump quipped “I always like to hang around losers actually because it makes me feel better. I hate guys that are very, very successful and you have to listen to their success stories. I like people that like to listen to my success.”
Trump added later that he was “only kidding, I want to say that — eh, sort of.”
Attitudes have changed everywhere but the cult. The cult is incapable of change because Trump is incapable of change.
Trump is forever a liar, in love with no one except himself. To the cult and to himself, Trump is always right, even when he contradicts himself.
Here are two Trump statements from a March press conference.
- I love the government like I love myself economically.
- And my predictions have been right. Trump was right about everything.
With inflation surging and Trump mired in a war for over five weeks that was supposed to be over in a few days, it take a hell of a lot of gall to say you are right about everything.
Heck Trump promised to end wars not start them.
Lies No Longer Hidable
Trump’s lies are no longer hidable to all but the diehard cultists.
Ironically, this is the same setup Biden was in with dementia. And that’s in play again too.
Trump has done everything conceivable to irritate the most people.
Even some core supporters have abandoned Trump. Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones abandoned Trump over the war.
For discussion, please see The Implosion of Maga from the Core Is a Sight to Behold
MAGA splinters big time over the war. Trump’s reaction makes things worse.
Those attitudes have changed, and they are not changing back. Attitudes are irreparable because Trump is irreparable.
In 2020 Trump was lucky to be running against Harris/Biden. Now Trump has to run on his own track record.
It’s hopeless.
Expect a Republican bloodbath in November, perhaps a very shocking Senate result one that no one else is even discussing, yet.
Addendum
I had just finished this post when this came up.
Pope Leo Is Weak on Crime
Truth Social: Pope Leo is WEAK on Crime, and terrible for Foreign Policy. He talks about “fear” of the Trump Administration, but doesn’t mention the FEAR that the Catholic Church, and all other Christian Organizations, had during COVID when they were arresting priests, ministers, and everybody else, for holding Church Services, even when going outside, and being ten and even twenty feet apart. I like his brother Louis much better than I like him, because Louis is all MAGA. He gets it, and Leo doesn’t! I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s OK for Iran to have a Nuclear Weapon. I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s terrible that America attacked Venezuela, a Country that was sending massive amounts of Drugs into the United States and, even worse, emptying their prisons, including murderers, drug dealers, and killers, into our Country. And I don’t want a Pope who criticizes the President of the United States because I’m doing exactly what I was elected, IN A LANDSLIDE, to do, setting Record Low Numbers in Crime, and creating the Greatest Stock Market in History. Leo should be thankful because, as everyone knows, he was a shocking surprise. He wasn’t on any list to be Pope, and was only put there by the Church because he was an American, and they thought that would be the best way to deal with President Donald J. Trump. If I wasn’t in the White House, Leo wouldn’t be in the Vatican. Unfortunately, Leo’s Weak on Crime, Weak on Nuclear Weapons, does not sit well with me, nor does the fact that he meets with Obama Sympathizers like David Axelrod, a LOSER from the Left, who is one of those who wanted churchgoers and clerics to be arrested. Leo should get his act together as Pope, use Common Sense, stop catering to the Radical Left, and focus on being a Great Pope, not a Politician. It’s hurting him very badly and, more importantly, it’s hurting the Catholic Church! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Wow
Add Catholics to the list of those Trump has offended.
Related Posts
January 27, 2026: Trump Cheers a Plunge of the US Dollar “I Think It’s Great”
“Look at all the business we are doing,” says Trump.
A sinking dollar adds to inflation.
January 30, 2026: Dear Zoomers, Trump Says He “Wants to Drive Up Housing Prices”
I don’t want to drive housing prices down. I want to drive housing prices up. They can be sure that’s what’s gonna happen.“
Somehow, I doubt Gen Z will like this message.
April 10, 2026: March CPI a Blistering Hot 0.9 Percent Led by Gasoline Up 21 Percent
Inflation in March was a scorcher. Here are some month-over-month and year-over-year charts.
April 10, 2026: Consumer Sentiment Drops to Record Low in April, Consumers Blame the War
The war and resultant inflation is what forced capitulation by Trump.
To me it is now clear that Trump does not care about the mid-terms – in fact he seems to be on a nihilistic rampage to make them even worse. This will then set him up as a martyr in the 2nd half of his term. He can blame outside forces/constraints rather than his incompetence.
So then the question is:
Is this just Trump being Trump and wanting to be the centre of attention regardless of the outcome?
or
Is it some kind of mechanism to increase his own/family wealth. Increased volatility leads to lots of money making opportunities.
I don’t quite get how the latter actually works so tend towards the former. Whatever the reason he really has lost sight of being a President for Americans. Polymarket currently gives chance of him leaving office early at 18%. I think it is way higher – he needs Vance to pardon him.
there is a lot of “insider trading” going on with the war. Shorts and longs having a day trade field day. Gee I wonder who is making the money.
Those tweets are getting more and more extreme because the market reacts less and less.He will have to threaten nukes to get the volatility those traders want.
You know if Vance showed some spine he would just stop defending Trump. He doesn’t have to harangue him just apologize. It would make Trump furious. He could sideline him but not fire him. This could ingratiate him with the Congress, and if he’s public about it, it could make an impeachment more palatable to republicans. Maybe he’s waiting for the midterms but he should see there is almost no way in hell he will ever get elected president in 2028.
If Lindsey Graham loses it’s over for the Repugnant Tans.
I have started to stop read Trump’s social media rants.
What is the point, it is either a) crass, inflammatory, and empty, b) contradictory to another post the next day, c) lies, or d) all of the above.
What a waste of my time.
the next pres willl be a general. he will run as a d and win in a landslide.
Could be but it won’t matter. Sooner or later tds sufferers will realize he’s term’d out.
On the other hand, nothing is funnier than watching Democrats shiv each other, claim they’re horrified by SA, while voting for and supporting the perps.
never underestimate Dem ability to screw it up. we’ll have campaigning and if Dems start talking about trans-rights, opening the border, DEI . .. the gains may not be as large as we now expect.
Team D know what to say before the election, only to do a 180 after polls have closed.
In 2006, they talked about ending the Wsr On Iraq.
In 2018, they stopped talking about the russiagate conspiracy theory.
Solidly Blue House + Senate = Impeachment across the finish line.
The red/blue pendulum will swing more and more violently between red & blue.
The polarization is not the cause but the effect of a completely flawed system.
And yet, Americans will lemming like continue on the path to dystopia.
The chances for any political renewal are nil.
Too much mind control.
Too many weak minds.
“Team R is red.
Team D is blue.
Neither one of them
Gives a fuck about you.”
Watch American voters bounce from Team R Tweedledee to Team D Tweedledum, over and over again, hoping that this time, it turns out different.
I’m just noticing the picture Trump posted of himself dressed up like Jesus healing someone. To me it screams: “Hey, I’m the Anti-Christ”.
Yeah but to MAGA it represents the Messiah.
Rural, red, south central Ohio here. This centrist says vote the bums out in November. Only two issues matter to me 1) Where do you stand on impeachment? 2) How would you promote term limits?
Serious question: How’s the school quality, as in graduation rates, literacy and math comprehension? What about crime and homelessness?
tds is preventing your synapses from firing.
Throw in rank choice voting to get some new blood before the empire finally collapses. I think we’ll have to change that at the state level though.
“In Iowa, how much more losing can farmers put up with?”
Depends on how bad they want to be able to hang around with Trump. He prefers being around losers who can listen to his stories instead of the other way around.
He loves the poorly educated!
We’re in a period of political cultism, and I think refusing to vote tactically risks becoming a form of cult behaviour in itself rather than a way out. Of course not trying to imply it is in anyway equivalently bad as MAGA!
I understand the appeal — it feels more principled to treat your vote as an expression of what you truly believe. But that can slip into a mindset where the act of voting becomes about identity or purity, rather than shaping outcomes.
The idea that “if only enough people voted this way, the system would change” sounds attractive, but in practice it rarely happens in the system we actually have.
More often it just fragments opposition and makes the least preferred outcome more likely.
So while it presents as independent thinking, it can end up being a bit detached from reality — another kind of belief system that feels right, but doesn’t deliver better results.
I decided that awhile back. I’ve been a Republican since the age of 18 and Reagan’s first term. Voted for GHW Bush after he raised taxes, because he cared about the budget deficit. Bob Dole was my man opposed to Clinton. But I refused to vote for the idiot war-monger Bush the Jr. Voted libertarian and even Ralph Nader all the way to the end of Trump’s first term (one exception was Romney). That’s when I swallowed hard and voted for Biden. Not because I liked any of his policies (not sure he had any), but Trump is a disaster of a human being, much less a President. Then I voted for Harris knowing only that she was bright enough to work her way from California attorney to the Vice Presidency. But anyone but Trump. And here we are. At this point the Dems could put up AOC and they have my vote. The difference now is that it will be Democrats all the way down the line. The current batch of treasonous cowards we call Republicans have to go. The entire slate has to go. Okay, maybe keep Rand Paul. Sorry for the rant.
Most voters avoid looking at what’s occurring in their own communities. Funny how the D v R mythology falls apart when crime is out of control and the schools aren’t functioning.
The MAGA Catholics I know are full-blown bull goose cult members.
If Jesus Christ were to return to earth for the express limited purpose of denouncing Trump, they’d sign up for Satan.
To be fair, it goes both ways. Trump could cure cancer with his moronic touch, and democrats and liberals would cry about the doctors he put out of work and besides, Evil Russians made him do it.
You might want to cut down on the caffeine.
Feral indeed.
“The loyalty requirement is also why Trump has dysfunctional departments of Defense, Homeland Security, FBI, National Security, and Justice.” [emphases mine]
I think there’s something not phrased right here.
Sending the Epstein Scout to Hungary did nothing to help Orban, whose party was caught a few years ago with an Epstein Club member, that is a pedophile, pardoned by Orban’s cadres. Hopefully, the Epstein Club will double down and guarantee the defeat of its clubbers.
What’s interesting is that Hakeem Jeffries will probably become Speaker and 2nd in line to the presidency. Not my choice, but Mike Johnson doesn’t merit the job.
I remember when Hakeem was touted as the next up-and-comer Dem. The more I see him in interviews, the more underwhelmed I get.
What this post discusses is important, but it leaves out emphasis on a key issue that will likely drive many voters’ decisions and motivate them to vote in the midterm elections, that being the debt and deficit. At the current burn rate, government will be at the $41 trillion debt limit by the election, so there will be, or at least should be a lot of chin music on the topic. There will likely be little truth concerning our debt and deficit situation in favor of placing blame and more vote buying. If politicians continue to destroy our country fiscally, everything else will not matter so much.
The fed cannot fix the mess with low rates as low rates facilitated excessive spending borrowing. It cannot print our way to fiscal sanity as buying federal debt obligations with printed created an artificial demand for government debt. Fiscal stimulus does not work anymore, the last fiscal year had $1.8 trillion stimulus the bought $0.8 trillion in GDP growth. Politicians can no longer hide behind the erroneous economic idea that we can run deficits since we can print and pay. That does not work because inflation from the printing transfers wealth from the productive private sector that finances government.
The only way to fix the problem is spend equal to or less than revenue, and that at this point is a very difficult task for congress, but failure to do it now only increases the difficulty later when debt, deficits and interest rates will be higher. I honestly do not believe there are many that grasp the severity of our fiscal mess, but it will soon be exposed. I fully expect a severe economic downturn and during it, I will not be surprised if there’s no increase in social safety net spending because there will be no way to fund it without disproportionately making the situation worse.
I wish voters cared about the deficit, but they don’t. And I was a member of the Concord Coalition.
“Do you want your car red or blue? I’ll just write up the order for you.”
@ creamer
Which 3 blogs do you recommend besides this one?
Well this all assumes Trump doesn’t come up with an excuse to block elections which with his demented mind is entirely possible at this point.
But does this mean that if there is a blue wave that Americans are 100% in favor of woke, DEI, open borders, defunding ICE, LGBTQ-soup, etc? Because I was told when repubs won that’s what America was voting for so if dems win the opposite must be 100% true.
Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™
Imo the only reason those issues are in the spotlight is because the republican political machine polices ( as we are currently seeing. ) do not represent their voter base. So the republican have to rely on culture war. Dems are dumb for letting them control the narrative.
There has been no immigration reform since regan nationalized the illegals in the 80s. Like abortion its a problem for republicans were to solve it.
Dei The poor white rep voter/ a does not like competition/ and they dei for their finical decline instead of their politicians policies. Would lgbtq really be an issue if republican politicians did not make a big deal out it. Trans are just the current whipping boy/ girl. First it was women and blacks then it went gays. Eventually trans will be accepted and they will find some other minority to beat on.
Ah remember alll that take about balanced budgets when dem are in power. .
wow, post-Trump, do you have someone who will help put you back together again?
If Americans are as allergic to corruption, lying, and grifting as the Hungarians, there has to be an unprecedented midterm landslide. But that’s the easy part. Cleaning up the mess left by Trump will be a Herculean task.
I would like to see
Immigration reform/ a balanced budget: with pay as u go tax increases if go over.
End citizen united. Campaign voter reform
Ban and punishment for stock trades. Get rid of the ability to graft and the grifters will go away.
Some common sense ruling on ai and social media in general.
Ill take some green energy for national security sake
Throw in some Epstein files for goon measure.
The question is not so much of will the democrats win big time in November but will they screw things up afterward by continuing with hard left policies. The democrats could easily retain power for the next dozen years if they would move a little to center which is where most voters are. Memories are short, if the democrats retain their current trajectory they will win November 2026 and 2028 but we will be sick of them by 2032 and another Trump like moron from the right could get in.
The question NOW is not so much who will win, as it should be the Republicans who will win with this latest change of events.
The Republicans can now state the Middle East is no longer living with a Nuclear Threat each and every day. They no longer have to worry about being vaporized any longer.
Oil is now plentiful and deliveries will be on their way shortly. Not through the Strait, because Trump has closed that. not from Iran, as they no longer have access to oil, or a way to deliver it, or even have it picked up!
The show is just about over, and Iran is as well…
What’s with you, Stu ?
What do you think it means when somebody claims to be able to blow up thousands of bridges and power plants in contested air space in under 4 hours? Or to erase a civilization?
The people of the Middle East have never been this close to nuclear annihilation by the only power that has over decades made realistic threats (and actually done so) to use nukes for political gain [never in self-defense].
– The Middle East no longer has to worry about being vaporized any longer. > Anyone Iran has been indiscriminately attacking., is no longer worried about it. They have been neutered…
– What do you think it means when somebody claims to be able to blow up thousands of bridges and power plants in contested air space in under 4 hours? Or to erase a civilization? > Someone very serious about being attacked and held hostage at sea. I would heed the warning personally, but I would not have caused it to occur by those actions in the first place.
– The people of the Middle East have never been this close to nuclear annihilation. > Agreed, and the threat is now gone thankfully. I was also afraid that if possible Iran would do so. They were already bombing Countries at will, for no real reason.
What is a hard left policy the Democrats are trying to initiate?
Dems should honestly state a policy to the American people on immigration. Also here in CA they are teamed with developers to replace charming actual communities with forced Stalinist high-rise blocs of proletarians. They should thread the needle on energy policies, between new tech and old, without forcing me to buy a radically overbuilt (over-regulated) neo-car. (This may involve escaping the zig zagging regimes in big picture policies between alternating party-dominant years, crushing on businesses like automakers. This would involve finding middle ground and not radical lurching resets on everything.) They should find a way to be neutral on personal freedoms and speech without becoming a parody over-enforcing mirror-opposite of their opponents. These things would be a start. I don’t fear them as much as MAGA, but I do fear them. The activists on both sides always bring woe.
Unfortunately, November is still a long ways and one should never underestimate the ability of Democrats to not just shoot themselves in the foot but the torso and head as well. However, it would be nice to see a landslide like that in Hungary.
Democrats are the party of failure. The entire West coast is proof.
My congresswoman (Ilhan Omar) will win by 55 points instead of her usual 45. My warmongering “democrat” senator, Amy Klobuchar, will become our governor – where she can do less damage. I won’t vote for any Zionist of either party, so I’ll vote for Ilhan (even though she’s a crook) and whichever republican is running for dog catcher (since the democrat will probably favor government funding for dog transgender surgery).
Gas will be at least $1 higher leading up to the election. Dems will get at least 240 in the House and probably take the senate. He latter will obviously be a narrow win if it happens, so the question is whether enough GOP senators will vote to remove Trump. 50/50 on that. Vance is just a better liar than Trump and as much of a warmonger. He could never win a national election for president.
I don’t plan on being here for the election but if circumstances keep me here for some reason (e.g. WW III) I plan on voting for any candidate that puts other countries SECOND and America first. Like you it may need to be a vote for anyone from a different culture that has no allegiance to the middle east (e.g. Buddhists, Hindus, Atheists, etc). Barring that, I will check how much boot licking to middle east nations the candidate has done and the one with the least boot licking gets the vote.
Something needs to change to end this madness.
Find out who Jojo’s for and vote the opposite.
so you know, you’re snorting powdered sugar.
extremist are all over Minnesota, And people wonder why there is so much violence coming from a fly over State. It also don’t help having Tim Walz as the Governor.
Quoted: In the great book, “The logic of failure” by Dietrich dormer, he outlines the process by which people lead themselves to failure. Trump is doing some textbook stuff right now:
People fail in complex situations because they act with too much confidence, focus on the obvious problem in front of them, ignore delayed side effects, and keep pushing a plan even after reality has changed.
Trump’s budget for 2027, a breakdown
https://www.stephensemler.com/p/trumps-budget-for-2027-a-breakdown
Fucking shameful.
The exact opposite of small government, liberty focused Republicanism.
The link has a very good description of the economic situation we are in and what is likely this summer, it’s a big head wind for the incumbents.
nagasundaram041326.pdf
I do believe a large % will stay home, as they often do. Nearly 60% of Gen Z are Registered Independents. Neither party is doing it for them. Its more like 50/50. This is the result imo, of the radical stance the two sides ultimately take, to seem opposed completely with the other party. It’s vote chasing at its worst!!
– TRUMP will be even more of a lame duck. > if the election swings Democrat I agree. He will have lost his own party at that point as well, if it occurs. I see the Senate staying R and the House probably as well, but that depends on what occurs in Iran imo. It will flip D if it drags on, and many soldiers die. It will stay R if the Strait opens, Iran caves a bit, and the Iranian People stay hardline against change internally. Peace, Nuclear Weapons Gone, and Middle East normalcy in terms of fighting, and it could help it be R for decades to come perhaps… Going to be an interesting couple years on the horizon to be sure!
Mish Election Theory:
– As noted, my current forecast is that nearly every tossup seat in the House and Senate will break hard for Democrats.
> So your stating, in this particular conclusion, that toss up seats, are not toss up, but rather lean very strongly Democrat? I don’t doubt that seats will be picked up by the Democrat Party in certain instances, but all of them is probably not going to be the case. Not all that long ago, we had a landslide victory for the Republicans. I don’t see it going in nearly an 100% change.
– My “nowcast” numbers are current estimates of what would happen IF the election was today. > A major point to be sure. Right now we have a war, inflation, higher cost for nearly everything. Tariffs in the mix and misunderstood by many, and one could place Trump in that number, as it seems at times he is clueless. I still blame a portion of this at times on his cabinet, and how his Administration cannot seem to get on the same page at times. I am sure it’s very frustrating for Democrats, as it’s definitely very frustrating for me, and so many others right now. Trump could stay quiet for a couple weeks and that could change things significantly imo. He can be his own worst enemy at times…
Mish Current Nowcast House:
– If my theory holds, the current “nowcast” looks like 230-240+ for the House. > That’s pretty tight, and I could see that or even the reverse of that, but it will highly depend on what changes between now and then. Now it’s tight but yet foreseeable, but months from now, if things go very positively for Peace, and the war subsides, and favorably. Things could easily swing Republican, and in a big way. Especially if prices drop at the pump, at the grocery store, and Rent perhaps? Heck, even homes could fall drastically in price, if foreclosures mount, and people are forced to sell. Lots to potentially happen from today until the next election. Jobs could be a major factor as well, or lack thereof.
– Things are going so bad for Trump economically and politically that lean Republican is in play for Democrats. > Again, as of today, but that could easily change very quickly. We are by no means in solid shape in many areas, but very little would need to change, for that to reverse quickly. Timing will be everything imo.
– But the reverse is not true. Lean Democrat is not in play for Republicans. > Not 100% for sure, but hardcore Dems are no better for the party than hardcore Republicans are for theirs. I can see just as many people, on both sides, sick of the games both sides are playing right now. That’s why I give you “If” it was today, but nobody is so sure what pans out just yet for tomorrow… we shall see soon enough.
– Texas Turnout Is Key > I don’t see any chance of Texas flipping personally. If it does, then Republicans are in big trouble, and especially if Democrats change course, and do a damn good job for Everyone. Then many future elections could be in doubt. Screw it up, and it may be Republican’s for the foreseeable future then.
– A Word About Loyalty > Seriously? There is NO Loyalty in Politics, by any stretch, and by every example, you can find the opposite example, and often by the same person, people, party probably holds true. The only loyalty is “What have You done for Me Lately”? That’s it!
It used to be that Democrats would support each other no matter what. Now they are organizing news stories about SA histories so that better funded Democrats can push out their challengers and have a better shot at winning.
Democrats are nothing if not consistent.
The Iranians are going to try to keep Trump pinned down until at least the Summer, so the midterms are a disaster for the Orange man and his enablers.
The international community will play along as long as they can, since everyone wants to get rid of Trump.
I bet the Blue wave is bigger, the economic pain will be intense
Ideally we get rid if all the losers in congress and vote in independents that will amend the constitution to take plutocratic money out of politics- dare to dream
So, 100% replacement? — lofty goal
The corporations who own the politicians will not allow that to happen.
– The Iranians are going to try to keep Trump pinned down until at least the Summer, so the midterms are a disaster for the Orange man and his enablers. > highly unlikely that occurs. Trump just closed the Strait, and all Iran oil shipments have been halted. 60% – 80% of the oil has been replaced and via a different shipping avenue. Now Iran has no oil to sell, no money to make, and they are broke, and need oil. The Strait is closed and no way around it, so that avenue is gone via Trump, and not Iran. Let’s see what they do next shall we…
– I bet the Blue wave is bigger, the economic pain will be intense > Perhaps no such thing now….
– Ideally we get rid if all the losers in congress and vote in independents that will amend the constitution. > I see a lot of Democrats not even showing up for the election now. Why bother, as they are toast. Independent voters now shift back to 5he republicans as a result. Rarely do they support losing parties, but will stay home rather than vote for the other party. So Dems lose in that sequence of events.
Fuck the blue wave. Organize and field your own candidates not backed by the establishment. Or don’t vote.
If you insist on doing nothing other than visiting a fake election booth every few years, consider writing in yourself, someone you admire, or “fuck you”.
Blue beating red does nothing for fixing this country, in my humble opinion. Removing an insane megalomaniac in good, but what do we get as a replacement? Trump started purging conservative Rs in the first term as well – endorsing only Rinos. By conservative, I mean founding father, SMALL government Constitutionalists. I live in the same state as the warm- mongering troll, (SC). We cannot even get our preferred candidate through the primary. Same for ‘presidential’ candidates.
Yes, it is a very sad setup
The Zionist filter is powerful and rich as Croesus. And they leave no stone unturned. They cannot abide one measly backbench voice like Thomas Massie opposing their forever wars. He has almost no ability to thwart them, yet they are spending a gazillion to flush him out of Congress.
TRUMP will be even more of a lame duck for his remaining years in office, assuming he is not removed.
There will be a huge blue wave but it won’t make a whit of difference. Democrats and Republicans are the same party. Might as well be called the Corporate America party. They just switch good cop/bad cop roles each time the other is voted out.
No matter which party is in control, Nutty Yahoo will still get his way with the war against Iran.
That is called Democracy with American Characteristic,
or Democracy with Deep State
or Democracy with Uniparty.
or Democracy with Israel
Nice. It’s why talk about China doesn’t scare people anymore.
The result of Republicans demanding “conservative judges” who performed the full corporate coup d’etat with the Citizens United decision.
To be fair, take away that sweet sweet SuperPAC cash and the HRC, Biden and Harris campaigns all would be dead in the water as well.
I’d be just fine with that.
As would I, but no way would the DNC (or the RNC, or anyone else of influence and authority) agree to that.
“There is only one party in the United States, the Property Party … and it has two right wings: Republican and Democrat. Republicans are a bit stupider, more rigid, more doctrinaire in their laissez-faire capitalism than the Democrats, who are cuter, prettier, a bit more corrupt — until recently … and more willing than the Republicans to make small adjustments when the poor, the black, the anti-imperialists get out of hand. But, essentially, there is no difference between the two parties.”― Gore Vidal
Yes, I have some property, and that as a system is one way of not sliding into an endless war of all against all. Am I saying it is utopia? Never, and never would I seek or imagine such a supposed thing. I traded my way in and traded my way up, and yes, some luck or randomness was involved. Welcome to reality. The principal alternative is the rule of some guy or some mob, plus handouts to pals. Pick a lane.
One can only wish that Republicans presently believed in free markets, the way they at least pretended back when Vidal was alive.
I live in Maine, Collins is getting crushed by the current Governor Mills in head to head polling and Mills is getting crushed by an oyster farmer in Democrat polling so you can safely put that one in the blue category. Collins had more integrity than most senators during her career but it’s over
So, like Orban.
As in 1992, “It’s the economy stupid”.
We will see if the Pubs have the balls to remove Taco. If they don’t, the Dems will in Jan. It will also be interesting how the rnc responds this summer when Taco wants to hit the campaign trail.
No way the 25th amendment happens.
Agreed. It should have happened last week with the “destroy civilization” remark. The Rubicon is now in the rear view mirror.
Our system is so flawed that Dems may rightly think it’s better (positive EV in the midterms) to let Trump piss on the GOP and continue eroding that party until November, then deal with A25 or any potential efforts along those lines.
The economy will be absolutely trashed by the midterms. I doubt that the Republicans will win a single seat…
How stupid can Americans get? Both the Democrats and the Republicans are ISRAEL FIRSTERS. But Americans only vote for one or the other – when the simple solution is to vote for ANY other party than those two. You deserve the government you get. I don’t care anymore. Both my children are Democrats. They brought it upon themselves. I don’t feel sorry for any of you anymore. I’m just a little worried the dollar is going to get rejected by the world before I leave this world.
Among Democrats at least, something like 80% are opposed to Israeli influence in the USA according to PEW research. Republicans are a little over 50%. So you have a better chance with Democrats. Having said that, it only works if you keep New York Dems out of power in Congress, which is hardly the case now.
Illinois also.
In IL, it’s the Dems who are AIPAC-funded.
The DNC just voted down three resolutions to stop AIPAC from influencing our politicians. One would have condemned AIPACs role in primaries. One would have conditioned military aid to Israel. The other would have recognized what is happening in Gaza. Here’s is what they are trying to hide (in my opinion). Total pro-Israel lobby spending in 2024: over $126 million across 389 races. 96% win rate. – AIPAC PAC: $44.8M – United Democracy Project (AIPAC’s super PAC): $55.4M – DMFI: $4.8M – NORPAC: $2.7M The NRA spent $1.48 million on lobbying in 2024, just to give you a comparison. AIPAC and affiliated groups spent +$22M on Democratic primaries in Illinois alone in 2026. They operate through shell PACs called “Elect Chicago Women” and “Chicago Progressive Partnership” that are designed to obscure the source of funding. This is not standard political spending. This is a foreignn policy lobby systematically choosing which Democrats are allowed to win primaries, and the scale is only growing exponentially. 80% of Democratic voters now view Israel unfavorably. The base moved but the leadership is paid not to. https://x.com/leahfiles/status/2042612633942048969?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2042612633942048969%7Ctwgr%5Eeb21a2df0bc354b6e2f39df69a1df3c0e1c85b7f%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nakedcapitalism.com%2F2026%2F04%2Flinks-4-11-2026.html
Great post, thanks.
AIPAC actually brought Melissa Bean out of political retirement, to run in last month’s primary. Wonder how much they paid her.
If things get really bad, you could always OD on some drugs and call it a day.
Or jump off the roof of a building
The number can’t be too large.
i am too cynical to care. at one point in my life, I was an election judge. now, it just doesn’t matter.
as someone posted a few days ago, im tired boss.
Thank you for your service!
Lindsey Graham did everthing he could to get Trump to join Israel into attacking Iran. Graham recently polled lower than usual. Hope voters give him a solid boot to get rid of this constant Warmonger.
Graham has been compromised. 3 guess who it is?
A Word About Loyalty
Yeah, show me one administration of minions that wasn’t loyal to the leaderships message.
Show me one MAGA idiot who can think clearly about what I am saying.
I prefer to call the Trump loyalists Trumpistas these days as there is a pretty big split in the MAGA base..I have several friends and family members that are Trumpistas and it is a waste of breath to speak to them, they’ve been hypnotized into mindless lemmings.
Yes, humans are often ignorant, tribalist douchebags.