Estimates range from a few days to a few weeks. But is that the right question?
The Oil Mystery Question
The Wall Street Journal discusses the The Oil Mystery at the Heart of America’s Pressure Campaign on Iran
It has become a multimillion-barrel mystery at the center of the U.S.-Iran war: How long does Tehran have before it runs out of room to store the oil it can no longer export?
The answer may help determine the outcome of the conflict.
A five-week-old U.S. naval blockade has trapped much of Iran’s oil inside the Persian Gulf, forcing Tehran to pump stranded barrels into rapidly filling storage tanks and aboard a flotilla of ships nearby.
U.S. officials are betting that when Iran exhausts places to stash the oil, it will face a costly, high-risk shutdown of its oil fields, forcing Tehran to blink in negotiations over its nuclear program and the wider conflict.
The U.S. government, oil traders and private analysts, however, are divided over exactly how much time Tehran has until it reaches “tank tops,” industry parlance for running out of storage.
Estimates of Iran’s onshore capacity range widely from 57% to 90% full, meaning Tehran could hit the wall in days—or hold out for weeks. Slowly throttling wells and using idle ships as floating storage are further helping Iran stretch the clock.
Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist at Macquarie, estimated that Iran’s prewar oil-sales revenue contributed roughly 10% to its gross domestic product.
“So even a total loss is not a catastrophic hit to their GDP, but it is an extremely large hit to their government revenue and the budget for military spending,” said Dwivedi.
S&P Global Energy estimates onshore crude stocks are around 57% full, below the historical range for this time of year. JPMorgan puts the number at 64%, leaving the equivalent of about three weeks of exports before they are full.
On the other end of the spectrum, data provider Kpler estimates onshore tanks to be 90% full, meaning they would be exhausted by the end of the week if the blockade continues.
The wide spread in estimates reflects the opacity of Iran’s oil system. Analysts use satellite images to measure the rise and fall of floating tank roofs, estimating from the size of the shadows they cast how full they are. However, fixed-roof tanks, private storage sites and damaged infrastructure are harder to assess. Some estimates don’t include storage at domestic refineries.
Meanwhile, Tehran has been slowly throttling well production. Instead of having to cut it all at once, it is easing back output in stages, hoping to avoid the more costly step of shutting fields and later spending weeks or months bringing them back.
Iran is also actively increasing refinery production. And it is able to export a modest amount—some 200,000 barrels a day, Eurasia’s Brew estimates—overland via rail and trucks, and the Caspian Sea.
This isn’t the first time Tehran has had to mothball its energy sector to outlast Washington, raising questions about the effectiveness of the U.S. pressure campaign this time around.
For more than three years after Trump imposed sanctions on Tehran in 2019, Iranian oil exports plummeted. Production also suffered, dropping below 2 million barrels a day. However, output surged back in 2022 and reached multiyear highs earlier this year.
That track record points to limited lasting impairment from prolonged disruptions, said Kim Fustier, an oil and gas analyst at HSBC, suggesting Tehran can afford to play the long game.
The Wrong Answers
- At the end of April, Trump said that Iran had about three days before its oil pipelines risked explosion from being clogged up.
- Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Iran’s oil storage had filled up and Tehran would need to shut down oil production.
The Wrong Question
While analysts debate how much time Iran has, I laugh because it’s not the right question.
“Expectations may need to be adjusted,” Fustier said. “It’s hard to imagine that a weekslong blockade is going to achieve something different than 3.5 years of little exports did.”
Give Fustier credit for the correct line of thought.
The Right Questions
- How much more inflation can Trump take?
- How much more inflation on diesel and fertilizer will farmers take before they abandon Republicans in the midterms?
- How much more graft and incompetence will the US electorate in general take?
- How much oil well damage is Iran is willing to put up just to stick it to the US?
- How much pressure from Republican Senators and Congress can Trump take?
- How much global pressure from the world can Trump take?
- What is China directly pressures trump with rare earth minerals?
Those are the right questions. No one knows the answers to them either.
Regarding point 5, the Senate bucked Trump to pass the War Powers Act limiting Trump’s ability to fight this stupid war.
The House was scheduled to do the same, but Speaker Mike Johnson cancelled the vote. The Senate and House are now on recess until early June.
That’s a symbolic vote because Trump will veto it. However, that would be a very unpopular veto because the US public is sick of this war.
Not a Matter of Iran’s Time
The key question for Iran is number four: How much oil well damage is Iran is willing to put up just to stick it to the US?
I happen to believe it’s unlimited, or nearly so.
Meanwhile, good luck with the other six questions if JPMorgan is correct in its analysis that Iran has another three weeks before it matters.
My Basic Assumption From Day One
My basic assumption at the start of this stupid war was Iran primary goal is to inflict as much pain on the US as possible.
So far, that looks like the correct analysis. Iran has not budged. If anything, Iran has added demands.
So how much more is Trump willing to put up with? Ultimately, that’s what it boils down to if my basic assumption holds.
To date, the blockade has been a miserable US failure. So when does Trump capitulate if Iran doesn’t?
Related Posts
May 19, 2026: Iran Reiterates Peace Demands, Trump Caught Lying About Negotiations Again
Allies know nothing of Trump’s statements yesterday. Meanwhile, note bond yield breakout.
May 20, 2026: War Powers Act Passes the Senate, Four Republicans Vote Against Trump
The bill will likely pass the House, but face a Trump veto. Rep Massie Outed.
May 21, 2026: Memorial Day Weekend Gas Prices Hit a Four-Year High, and Headed Up
How long before we have a new record high?
May 21, 2026: GOP Senators Break with Trump Over $1.8 Billion ‘Anti-Weaponization’ Slush Fund
Addendum
VLCC’s are now even turning on their AIS tracking systems as they fill up at the South Pars oil fields FSOP’s (Giant floating production and storage facilities).
They are starting to sail straight through Hormuz and on to China, India or Pakistan..
This paves the way for insurance companies to start to re-rate transit through the strait and relax the market.
The only real reason the Strait was closed is U.S. military action and the freeze up of the insurance market.
PaPa Dave can probably give us a better update on the repairs being made and how much production has been restored?
Bueller? Bueller?
People don’t seem to consider that if Iran was seriously looking at oil well damage from lack of ability to sell the oil, they could just dump it into the Gulf.
People cant think either.
Iran would damage its own coast and that would give Trump or Isreal reason to bomb the wells.
Here’s another question: is USA “negotiations capable”? The asking budget for (ahem) defence (pork pork pork) is $1.5T, and as a diplomatic team USA has no one better to send than the Re/max real estate twins Kushner and Witkoff, not just to one hot spot but to every negotiation: Iran, Gaza, Russia, EU, Saudi.
Maybe state dept needs some H1B hires to broaden and diversify their lineup.
Not only are those clowns incapable of negotiating anything, the US is agreement-incapable because we break our word whenever it suits us. Pulling out of the intermediate nuclear weapons treaty, pulling out of the JCPOA, for example. NATO not moving “one inch” to the east. Pretending – on two occasions- to be negotiating with Iran only to launch a sneak attack.
Whether oil sales make up 10% or 50% of Iran’s economy is irrelevant. In a dictatorship, everyone has a job.
Iran is not a dictatorship. They have contested elections and power changes hands as a result of those elections.
Iran’s oil fields and pipelines will not suffer any “serious” damage. Iran has had to throttle down, or even shut production many times after being sanctioned repeatedly over the last few decades. Those cut backs have never had a long term effect. To think that this time will be different is wrong.
Additionally, Iran still has storage space available. They are very clever at finding more storage.
And of course, Iran is still exporting a lot of oil. A few tankers have been blocked, but certainly not all of them. Many still pass through the US blockade. And they are still exporting through the Caspian, as well as rail, pipe, and truck.
Even if their exports are down by 10-20%, they are selling their exports for double the price they were before the war, so their income has actually gone up. And remember, the US allowed them to sell as much as possible in April, before finally trying to shut them down in May.
In addition, many of Iran’s neighbors have had to shut their wells down for two months now. Where is all the concern about their oil fields and pipelines blowing up? There isn’t any because talk of fields blowing up is all a crock.
The US (and the rest of the world) is rapidly depleting storage. We will crack long before Iran will.
If they’re making more income is there really any incentive for them to stop the blockade? Seems like they’ve become emboldened and this may be the new normal. If Trump bombed their infrastructure Iran would just bomb the same in other countries which would be an even worse situation so I just don’t see that happening. But Trump has to find a way to save face.
Iran wants the war to end. No one wants war. They also want the US blockade to end as it reduces some of their exports. They would prefer to ship all the oil that they can.
However, one thing they have learned from this war, is how easy it is for them to control the strait of Hormuz. They will now want to continue to control the strait as that control can provide another source of revenue for them. It also gives them leverage that they didn’t have before. Leverage that they were hoping to get with a nuclear weapon.
This war has completely backfired on Trump. Rather than an easy win, it is now a lost cause that he is desperate to find a way out of, without looking like a loser. He cannot win it with brute force. He hit Iran with close to 20,000 missiles and bombs and Iran simply kept firing back. He depleted enough of our munitions inventory that it will take 3 years to replace it. Estimates of US losses in bases, planes, radar, etc is significantly more than the government is admitting. If Trump attacks again, it can’t be for long, because we are literally running too low on munitions. And it would not change anything.
It has to be a negotiated settlement. And Iran has all the leverage now. It’s going to be a bitter defeat for Trump to accept. He will try to spin it as a victory, and his cult will believe it. But no one else will.
Since the war was all about Iran having nukes, and since they now control the strait, seems it would be in their best interest to capitulate on nukes and in return continue collecting tolls with the strait fully open.
Trump would claim victory and tell the world the now elevated price of oil is a shared cost that must be paid to Iran to prevent them from becoming a nuclear power. He would act like a genius though everyone would see him as a fool as it would be a worse deal than Obama’s.
Iran has to know if they don’t capitulate the B-2’s will continue to show up and take ’em out.
No, because with nuclear weapons, the United States and Israel will load up and take another swing, and again and again.
The United States and Israel are utterly vicious and untrustworthy. Force is the only language they understand, a lead pipe to the face, over and over again.
Everything you mention here is established fact, though one has to extract it objectively in the face of the MaGa propaganda spin
yet the MAGA morons on here still believe it’s untrue because they can’t get their heads around supporting a complete moron
maybe they need to read Daniel Kahneman’s research on the deficiencies of the human mind, but that would taken an open mind. Ironic.
That would require functional literacy, something they not only fail to demonstrate but actively demonstrate failure.
Still trying to guess how Trump gets out of this mess.
Possibilities:
1. Iran begged me to stop as they just can’t take it anymore. So we are leaving because I don’t want to exterminate their civilization. We did our job. Now the rest of the world can deal with the strait and the nuclear dust.
2. Our allies in the gulf begged me to stop for humanitarian reasons. And since I am the greatest humanitarian ever, I will withdraw our forces. Our gulf allies said they would now negotiate the opening of the strait. And our amazing destructive campaign ended Iran’s nuclear program forever.
3 The nations of the world begged me to stop. They have all offered to negotiate with Iran and thank us for doing the hardest part with the greatest military campaign the world has ever seen. The rest will be easy now thanks to us.
Of course it will all be a lie. But that’s all Trump knows how to do.
Its a good question. I think it will just drag on until he can blame the political opposition or some outside force thats not iran
“If it were up to me, we would go pound them into submission but the congress has made it impossible for me so its not my fault.”
And the repubs in congress will be in on this strategy for lots of reasons
The rest of the world should be insisting that the Strait remain open. Singapore has already said so. Whether Persia should have an atomic bomb is another matter. I think China should have been stopped from developing one: the civilized world could have done it then. Now it is too late, and I don’t see why Persia shouldn’t have one (sorry, have as many as it wants). I can see that Israel doesn’t like it, and neither do the other Semitic states (i.e. Arabs).
I’m one of the MAGA idiots, and I’ve read Daniel Kahneman. It sounds good, but I am not sure it is going to age well, apart from some of the basic stuff about fast and slow thinking. That’s enlightening, but I think the book is over-hyped.
this is a great question to throw to the seals in the comments! let me heat up some popcorn and be entertained!
How much damage to the productive capacity of its oil wells is Teheran prepared to risk?
I n f i n i t e
For Iran this is not a project or an operation: it’s life & death.
People sacrifice limbs and all their wealth when their life is at stake.
They will risk their own death to save their children.
You cannot negotiate with someone pointing a gun at you to kill you.
Until the gun is removed from the scene.
America is thinking about the risk of costs.
For Iran, costs are a minor side issue.
This is what happens when you get everything wrong and think your counterparts are thinking along the same lines. Russia & Iran are both in a life & death struggle with US/NATO and cannot afford any other outcome than the US backing down definitively.
That’s if you think you have a chance of winning. I wouldn’t have thought that the Persians would think so, given that they have driven all the Arab states in the Persian Gulf over to the American side. I can understand the Russians feeling that they still have enough of a chance to make it worth fighting.
Winning? When they want to kill & destroy you?
The Arab states weren’t driven over to the American side – they were already there. The mistake they made is trusting that by hosting U.S. bases and even actively aiding strikes on Iran, they would be protected by the American military. That fiction has been laid bare – Iran can strike anything, anywhere in the region at will. Now Saudi Arabia is engaging in talks to have a new security architecture that DOES NOT involve the U.S., but have security arrangements between all willing parties, including Iran. The U.S. military will be ejected out of the Middle East and will not be invited back.
Iran is willing to light the whole shithouse on fire. Storage is a much lesser concern.
willing as in “response to blackmailed by USIS”
Tipping point? Unrest goes global over soaring fuel prices…
YouTube – FRANCE 24 English
Time is running out.
If there is no solution or late solution there will be global chaos and economy will collapse within a few weeks.
It will not stop there but the problem will eventually come back home to roost.
will be global chaos and economy will collapse within a few weeks
I read that weeks ago that “its coming its within a few weeks”
???
Sooooon…
Ask Tulsi… Wait, she was resigned. No clue why, since she’s always been so attentive to her orange master’s voice.
Her husband got cancer.
Pick your rerason for leaving before you agree to “serve”.
“After careful consideration, I have decided to spend more time with my family — specifically the ones who still answer my calls.”
“I entered public service to make a difference. Unfortunately, most of the difference appears to be missing from the budget.”
“It has become clear that my talents are being wasted in meetings that could have been ignored by email.”
“I can no longer continue in a workplace where ‘urgent’ means ‘someone remembered the deadline this morning.’”
“I am stepping down to pursue opportunities with organizations that fear accountability slightly more than vampires fear sunlight.”
“Serving the public has been an honor. Explaining basic math to fellow officials has been less so.”
“I would like to thank my colleagues for teaching me that rock bottom does, in fact, have a basement.”
“I leave office proud of many accomplishments, most of which were completed before the committee formed a subcommittee to review them indefinitely.”
“I can no longer defend policies written like they were generated by three raccoons fighting over a keyboard.”
“This administration promised transparency. In fairness, I can now clearly see that nobody knows what they’re doing.”
“I resign effective immediately so I can finally experience the radical luxury of finishing a sentence without interruption.”
“Public office has taught me many valuable lessons, including where all the missing circus clowns ended up.”
“I had hoped to serve the people. Instead, I spent years trapped in a group project with unlimited funding and no adult supervision.”
“The stress of pretending this is normal has become medically unsustainable.”
“I refuse to continue participating in meetings where the phrase ‘data-driven decision’ means ‘whatever Donnie wants.’”
“After witnessing how legislation is actually made, I fully understand why sausages requested anonymity.”
“I’m stepping aside to allow someone else the opportunity to ignore expert advice professionally.”
“I can no longer in good conscience tell citizens to remain calm while I personally am Googling ‘how did we get here.’”
“Effective today, I will be pursuing a healthier environment, such as active volcanoes or deep-sea welding.”
“I originally believed government moved slowly due to caution and procedure. I now understand it’s because nobody can find the correct PDF.”
“The constant infighting has become exhausting. I expected democracy, not an episode of a reality dating show sponsored by lobbyists.”
“I am resigning before I accidentally tell the truth during a live microphone check.”
“I thank the voters for their support, patience, and alarming tolerance for chaos.”
“I leave office with my integrity intact mainly because nobody ever put it on the agenda.”
“This job has convinced me that ancient civilizations probably disappeared after one particularly bad committee meeting.”
Because people always resign from their job when their spouse gets a terminal illness. 🙄
Good China related oil article here:
Unlikely to be true.
Another useless article.
“Iran might be running out of room soon. Or maybe not so soon. Nobody really knows. Regardless, that the wrong question. Here are other questions I feel are more important, but nobody really knows those answers either. In any case, Trump bad.”
Pointless drivel.
Pretty much like anything else that is written these days. The truth is no one knows anything anymore b/c the zone is always flooded with contradictory information.
Wilderness of mirrors.
Look it up.
And people of low IQ are allowed to post. This problem will become more of an issue as AI/robots take over more human work, leaving the unemployed and unsuccessful with nothing much to do with their time.
They will argue with the robots, just like we are.
Of course some people can know things, and a lot of things, if you know where to look. A number of independent analysts have been calling it correctly re: the military situation. I think the reason Iran is called out for storage limitations is not because it is a known existential risk for Iran right now, but because the neocon establishment needs a narrative in play to push back on criticism and keep the ball in play. If and when the narrative falls part in a few weeks time, they will have moved on to another narrative. Just watch!
I’d invite an Iranian into my home long before I would ever let an Israeli get near my property
Broad stroke statements like that are just silly.
The human has a very wide range of emotions, sensibilities and desires.
Personally people on the other side of the world are as distant as those the next county over.
But I would welcome any that are hot young and virgins.
Even the virgins would require comprehensive STD testing both active and dormant.
Israelis dig in then bring the family. Like gypsies, but permanent.
chatGPT says:
—–
The reason oil still matters enormously to Iran is:
Several sources estimate oil historically supplied:
Foreign currency can be accessed via credit. Iran can ask China for credit to purchase war making material in exchange for future barrels of oil at a cheap price.
The government budget can be financed with printed money. It is inflationary, but in a war time economy, the government can limit purchasing power through sales of “war bonds” (what the US did in WWII).
Both of these options are well understood and I can guarantee you in place in some manner or other.
WHY would China do that? China has many of its own problems. It doesn’t give much of a crap about Iran other than its role as a thorn in the side of the US.
And Bessent has cut off most of the shadow banking that Iran was using and which was foolishly tolerated in the past to bypass sanctions. Now the US is threatening secondary sanctions against anyone caught helping Iran transfer money.
And inflation is skyhigh in Iran. People are unemployed and cannot afford food. I just checked. The free market Rial to $1 US peg is 1,7839,000!
Incorrect the banking system Iran is using is very complex and functions as it should.
Find Pepe Escobar’s article describing how it functions.
After Trumpstien shot our wad at Iran and got nowhere, china is the last superpower, you absolutely turnip.
Go to the CRADLE and search for Pepe Escobar’s article on how the Iran toll works. It is very detailed and well thought out method safe from sanctions and de-banking.
Iran seems like the most competent country in the region, and they are that way despite 3 generations of sustained economic and military abuse.
They don’t seem like people you should fuck with.
If Iran has too much oil, instead of damaging the wells why can’t it just pump the oil into the sea or the desert?
Economic damage to its own land or oceans.
Look up oil spill and see what cleanup costs are.
Shoot, down in Houston, we call that a swimmin’ hole!
Maybe of the oil will float to some other random country and Iran will blame it on Trump. Imagine an oil slick hitting UAE or Quatar. And for Iran it will be cheaper than damaging the wells I think. Near Kharg Island Iran doesn’t have that much valueable coastline to lose.
Sry, please put in “maybe half” into the first sentence.
Isn’t this just a stupid question?
Iran can dump the oil if they choose, iy is their oil.
But those paying the YUAN toll are passing.
Someone should find Pepe Escobar’s article on how Iran established their toll payment network.
It is very detailed.
Tulsi resigned today with the usual “family” issue politicians use.
Pepe is worth paying attention to. I’m interpreting Tulsi’s resignation as another sign Trump is going forward with strikes, which of course will be a disaster. While it could be just her husband’s cancer diagnosis, my view on her has darkened considerably this past year and she may be also trying to save herself. Her pattern of behavior before Congress dodging questions marks her as a compromised individual. IMO her resignation is far too late: she should have done so after the U.S. strikes on Iran last June.
Yep.
Also something is planned for Russia and Belarus somewhere near mid June.
A selection of warnings about an imminent Iranian nuclear weapon:
1984 – Jane’s Defense Weekly: Iran may have nuclear weapons within two years.
1992 – Benjamin Netanyahu: Iran close to having a bomb by 1999.
1993 – Yitzhak Rabin: Iran is building nuclear weapons, the world must act.
1995 – US government: Iran’s nuclear weapons plans must be stopped
1998 – Madeleine Albright: Iran is trying to acquire nuclear weapons.
2000 – Bill Clinton: Law against support for Iran’s weapons program.
2002 – George W. Bush: Iran threatens with nuclear weapons plans.
2004 – U.S. National Intelligence Estimate: Iran probably moving toward nuclear weapons.
2005 – Ariel Sharon: Iran close to technical solution for bomb.
2006 – George W. Bush: Iran’s nuclear plans threaten peace.
2007 – US intelligence: Iran paused its weapons program in 2003 but is rebuilding capacity.
2008 – Ehud Olmert: Iran close to irreversible nuclear weapons point.
2009 – Benjamin Netanyahu: Iran three to five years from bomb.
2010 – Barack Obama: Iran’s nuclear program a major threat.
2011 – Leon Panetta: Iran could have a bomb within a year.
2012 – Benjamin Netanyahu: Iran close to the “red line” for nuclear weapons.
2013 – Moshe Ya’alon: Iran very close to the nuclear threshold.
2014 – Benjamin Netanyahu: Iran on its way to becoming a nuclear power.
2015 – Benjamin Netanyahu: JCPOA (nuclear agreement with Iran) paves the way for Iran’s bomb.
2017 – Donald Trump: Iran could quickly obtain nuclear weapons.
2018 – Mike Pompeo: Iran is seeking nuclear weapons despite JCPOA.
2019 – Benjamin Netanyahu: Iran close to manufacturing an atomic bomb.
2020 – Donald Trump: Iran economically weak but nuclear threat remains.
2021 – Joe Biden: Iran must comply with JCPOA to stop nuclear weapons.
2023 – Yoav Gallant: Iran closer to the bomb than ever.
2024 – US intelligence: Iran months away from nuclear weapons.
2025 – Benjamin Netanyahu: Iran could build nine nuclear weapons.
2025 – Donald Trump: US could bomb Iran if nuclear program is not stopped.
Zero Hedge says the Zionists are the cause of all world problems.
No one here seems scared that radical Evangelicals are filling every government spot and every politician has an AIPAC guy, except Massie.
I will repeat that all the pieces are slowly being moved into place for very bad things to happen on US soil.
Trump is the distraction.
People forget about the body bags purchased under Biden and I think detention centers as well. Trump expanded the detention.
I’m too lazy to research but under Biden and Trump government agencies have purchased millions of rounds of ammo and tens of thousands of weapons.
Down voters will be simply stunned when their time comes.
But then again many are paid to up sell or down sell certain agendas.
Everyone gotta eat and pressing a thumb sign for eight hours pays plus it covers the OF account running in the background.
Where and how do I get a job voting up or down? I read MISH everyday, I’d gladly vote for $$.
I guess these imaginary jobs only exist in your mind so I down voted your comment for free.
A problem Iran has faced before and survived.
How well do we know the geology of the Iranian oil fields?
The exploding wells was a fantasy told to Trump to forestall Stone Age bombing ( they’ll destroy themselves, Sir!)
Meanwhile the other Gulf countries are facing the same with no prior experience
Where are their exploding wells?
Who is going to buckle first?
Our enemy or our allies?
Burning down the house to get rid of the mice
Probably, as long as they need as taco is more with the bs than actions.
Why not just give the Islamic Revolutionary Guards nuclear weapons, and they can control the Straight of Hormuz and set the oil and gas production quotas for the Gulf Arab countries. That’s what this is about, so why prolong things any longer?
I don’t know how did Viet Nam work out? Korea? Iraq? Afghanistan?
Even the Russians won WW2 but everyone else jumps on that bandwagon.
Why would they need nuclear weapons? They’re already controlling the Strait of Hormuz. And they had no interest in controlling the Strait until we attacked them. They need nuclear weapons for only one reason: to keep Americans and Israeli’s from killing their people.
The only real question should be how long can the world last before they all collapse from lack of oil?
The US is depleting it’s reserves at a rate of 10 million barrels a day & dumping them into the market to smash down prices, that game is about to end with parabolic moves higher. Not having oil is a problem, having too much isn’t a problem at all. It is this dumb thinking that is sinking the west, first Ukraine & now Iran, both times they got their asses handed to them & the real pain haven’t even started.
You mean modern society because the world will be just fine and most likely more tribal than an African nation.
Would not be surprised if Iran has plenty of SPR like storage underground. They build missile manufacturing cities underground, so an big empty storage space should be a layup.
I drilled about 25 oil and gas wells and I cannot think of a reason why a well would be damaged if it were shut in, except in some rare cases.
I’m open to an explanation of how a well would be damaged as well. Iran has a 100 years of oil field experience. The US government 0 years evidently.
Israel has zero or that seems to be the answer to everything.
Plus 30 vessels a day seem to be steaming through the strait now that the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) has been formally established and the application / approval / payment / IRGC-Navy escort process is sorted out.
Interview IRAN LETS 30 SHIPS PASS WITH TOLLS THROUGH STRAIT – w/ Fmr Diplomat & MI6 Alastair Crooke
Yes, mostly carrying Iranian oil or paying fees in Yuan.
So what???
Ships from Iran ports are not being allowed out of the Persian Gulf by the US Navy.
No – Oil shutdown is a known issue. And a serious one.
And Iran’s wells are particularly susceptible to damage. They are older with older technology and not maintined well.
The thing is, it impacts the entire region, not just Iran. But Iran in the worst shape from a forced shutdown.
You should be able to find lots of articles on this.
Lots of US propaganda articles, the same articles that said Iran would collapse in 3 days. Iran has had shutdowns for 30 yrs. Iran having too much oil is a problem but the world having too little isn’t? That’s just pure stupidity, Iran can wait until the US has zero reserves & not be affected but minimally.
Mish is right. Look up “water coning”. Just because the timing has been propagandized, doesn’t mean this isn’t a real issue.
Read what I said, sure there are complexities in oil, I know this. What I’m saying is that it isn’t an issue they haven’t had many times for many years & the blockade is a lie, 99% of their oil is still moving out. I am saying this is propaganda to take away from the real issue which is oil supply & the depletion of all reserves. Put simply Iran has unlimited time & the US has a few weeks. 10 millions barrels a day is being drained from the reserves which will be at 1985 levels in a week.
The fact this is even being discussed shows desperation, if they are waiting for Iran they’ll be waiting for ever. Iran spent 47 years to get to this point, you think they can’t wait another 47 years?
Dude never argue with Americans about anything involving how advanced another nation is.
Put it this way on memorial day we should all remember Grenada as that was the last war the US won.
We even celebrated an ISIS dude as Syrian dictator.
But he did trim his beard and had a nice suit,
LOL! Traveled to Tokyo last October. I was like “Oh F__K! I live in a 3rd world country!”
Vegas has people living in the drainage system for decades.
I guess no one bothered to check LA until now.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/viral-video-reveals-extent-las-homeless-hell
A shocking video making the rounds shows the reality of life under Los Angeles bridges: a sprawling setup of makeshift homes complete with lighting tapped into the city power grid, tables of items, and a self-contained community living off public resources.
I’m 100% certain we won the first Iraq war.
Define “won”. Maybe you mean “quit while ahead” before we lost the second.
Go back to X Jack. You don’t know Jack 💩!
Yeah, but for Iran it’s not a major issue; it’s a minor issue.
When confronting your murderer, you don’t think about wrecking your new clothes.
What?
One way to reduce “water coning” according to the article is to REDUCE the rate of oil being pumped from the well. Seems to be stopping pumping would reduce that rate.
It has to do with the geology. Iran’s wells are particularly susceptible to damage once they are shut in.
Nonsense, Iran will make no decisions based on oil or damage of oil wells. There oil is still flowing out, the blockade is a farce & they got ample revenues from transit fees on top. Why now after 47yrs are they talking about oil well being damaged? All propaganda, it is we that are in the shit with prices skyrocketing & oil depleting daily.
Exactly, ya right, it’s all propaganda to hide the fact they have zero options that can fulfil their wet dream of regime change. still in denial of being defeated & humiliated for the whole world to see. They want an excuse for their inaction in conceding defeat or attacking again, or the wells damage will bring Iran to the table. How sheeple fall for this nonsense is beyond me.
the people of the towel persuation will never agree to anything.
they don’t fly by the seat of their pants….they fly on magic carpets.
when they begin to land ,the shtf.💩
Zionist bots have migrated from Zero Hedge.
The Iranians are a really smart people. I seriously doubt they have not already thought this out and invented or created ways to deal with this. Obviously unlike Venezuela they are very capable of building, expanding or what have you to their oil infrastructure. I’ve read they utilize 70% of their oil production internally so most likely they can throttle down with close to zero long term effects.
Iran has another coast and railways in the direction of China.
What down voter does NOT have a map?
Usonians don’t know what a map is.
They could always burn the oil to save the wells if it comes down to it.
IMHO, Iran’s economy will collapse before their storage capacity and/or thier oil wells being irreparably damaged.
Unemployment and inflation are the issues with the Iranian people. Granted the ones I know aren’t engineers and just one speck of then picture.
we will break long before the Iranian people do.
they have literal ‘skin’ in this game. were over here worried about tje price of beef.
there is no we
There are 3:
We we we
All the way home.
Pork Taco!
Eggs are cheap here now. I hear less than $1/dz in some places. Better protein in eggs than in beef.
Coolhand Luke was setting an example then.
You should go on an all egg diet, and report back about the health benefits.
I eat a lot of eggs and I am very healthy. I also make a mean egg salad sandwich!
The US has until August to find a way out of this war as money for it will run out. If that fails by some miracle, the midterms will wreck Trump. Iran doesn’t have that long to wait
I have doubts there will be an election in November.
Election or overthrow of this regime, I’m not sure it matters any longer.
Unemployment and inflation are the issues with the American people.
No, those are issues with people who don’t matter. As the CEO of a major company tagged them last week “low valued human workers”.
Yes, just like Cuba and Venezuela under weight of massive sanctions.
Sanctions work every time, This is why Cuba is in great shape today.
They do have a tourism industry and some of the best medicine in the world.
They US has no sanctions and how are we doing?
Cuba has an adult literacy rate of roughly 99.7% for people aged 15 and older. This makes the country’s literacy one of the highest in the world, a statistic largely driven by the massive national literacy campaigns launched in 1961
The U.S. has a basic adult literacy rate of approximately 79%, meaning about 1 in 5 adults (21%) lack basic English literacy skills. While basic literacy is nearly universal, about 54% of American adults have literacy skills below a 6th-grade level, which affects their ability to process complex information.
I’m too bored to post how the NONSANCTIONED US has dropped in virtually every category from medicine to intelligence.
There’s an even dumber generation about to git gradiated soon! Some of them will become teachers, and the cycle of stupidity will continue.
US never learn the history properly.
That’s why US make the mistakes one after another.
North Vietnam was very poor. It fought the mighty USA and South Vietnam for 20 years alone.
Afghanistan was very poor. It fought back the mighty USA and its 40 most advanced allies for 20 years alone.
Hoping Iran will surrender?
Are you joking?
Hoping is not strategy.
Surrender = Suicide
Sorry.
But but but we have airplanes and can bomb them into the Stone Age.
Bomb them with what? Ya running out of everything, ya planes got shot down to the tune of 42, ya radars all destroyed, ya bases decimated, ya got ya ass kicked so severely ya dare not even go close to Iran. You keep smoking crack though, what a clown.
Zero Hedge loves the Houthi’s for their continual winning and they have barely entered the Iran fight.
Houthis would probably kill me on sight, but power to them. They’ve been fucked with beyond endurance, and now they’re fuckin back.
They can kick our asses with stones.
The US plan is a perennial.
The plan is always that the natives will rise up and greet the good guys out to liberate them. It’s been going on forever. Remember 1812 when they thought Canada would welcome them? Instead the White House and Capitol were burnt down.
“The key question for Iran is number four: How much oil well damage is Iran is willing to put up just to stick it to the US?”
I think that is almost the right question! Not just to “stick it to the US” which implies petty motives. Capitulation represents the abandonment of sovereignty to the US/West/Israel. Iranians take great pride in their fierce independence. Which is why the US/UK coup in ’53 caused so much anti-US hatred.
That leads to the Iranian decision being one about a nearly-existential sovereignty issue versus the US decision to engage in a war of choice against an “enemy” that did not and does not threaten us. We, the US, have far greater likelihood of capitulating than they do. The outcome of this war won’t make a different to us (hurt egos/pride) but would make a huge (actual) difference to them.
The oceans’ capacities are functionally speaking unlimited
If you are Iran you dump in the sea long before voluntarily damaging your own infra
I have thought of that. Don’t think they would do it. They have not threatened that yet and Trump would probably bomb their wells if they did. but then huge spikes in oil price.
It would ruin their ocean first.
Iran has been in this situation hundreds of times, the damage thesis is all bullshit. They are just pretending they got a plan & waiting for something. The reality is the US is running out of reserves not Iranian full tanks. Iran has gone from 1 million a day to 3 million a day back to 1 million again many many times & all their oil is still getting out, there is no real blockade, it’s just a blatant lie.
How does destroying their own environment benefit Iran?
All the desalinizing plants of their neighbors would mean no water.
UAE is majority Shia like Iran but the royals are Sunni.
Governments overthrown and then aligned for cleanup.
I doubt Iran will destroy the water supply.
It’s religious. Just like WMDs are Haram.
Central to Shia tradition is the martyrdom of Mohammed’s grandson, the true leader of Islam. They trace their lineage to him, just as Christians do to the Apostles.
The water deprivation of Imam Husayn and his companions at the Battle of Karbala (680 CE) is a central tragedy in Islamic history. Despite being camped near the Euphrates River, Husayn, his family, and his followers were denied access to water for three days before being martyred on the Day of Ashura.
Getting Shia to deprive others of water is like getting Christians to execute people by using crucifixion.
More of a James Bond movie plot!
So, who has a better handle on Iran’s storage issues – the Iranians or the the people who haven’t been right about anything ever?
Obviously the people who haven’t been right about anything, ever.
There luck has to change, right? Right?
They are right, until they aren’t.
Exactly! The US won the war on the 1st day. Someone needs to inform the Iranian people that they have already lost.😂
The Iranian people will certainly be sad to hear this news Harrold, as they will then be faced with more lassitude, continued Regime oppression and economic failure from their leadership.
But those factors don’t concern your ilk, as long as the US hegemony can be given the middle finger, yes?
Just yesterday Trump called gas prices “peanuts” – he’s caught in his own delusion. This could go on for months. Meanwhile the world economy suffers possibly irreparable damage.
Perhaps Trump is callously trying to do something about World overpopulation.
At the least there should be a billion that are further malnourished.
This is a very real concern that doesn’t get enough attention. Lots of people will die from reduced crop yields. Trump’s pride, Hegseth’s chest-medals and Palestinian-free Palestine are apparently worth more than the undernourished of the world to our leaders.
it that a feature or a.bug to Trumps crowd?
isnt Elon always moaning about to.many people?
It’s Bill Gates that’s the eugenicist.
Elon has over 100 children. He believes the opposite of that.
This could be bad indeed. There is now a two-thirds chance that this year will be a strong el nino year (per NOAA) and some chance it may even be a super el nino year. This has deleterious effects on rice yields in southeast Asia and maize yields in Africa. A normal procedure to help rice and maize cope with the hot dry conditions in a strong el nino year is to apply higher amounts of fertilizer. Guess what these poor countries won’t be able to do? Apply more fertilizer. So this could be a bleak year indeed for many poor people around the world, who may either experience outright shortages or prices that they cannot afford. Trump and his administration won’t care.
With less dependent populations, these poor countries might be able to pull themselves up by their bootstraps and become less needful, less poor and less dependent on the charity of others!
Unless you become too successful, like China or have smart people and resources like Iran, then the US empire will try to destroy you.
8.5 BILLION people. At a lowball at least 10& want to bring on some type of apocalypse, fool around with Biology and Technology, or just hate you for being straight/white/male/or religion.
That is what 850 MILLION people in the lowball.
And their is no way to keep them all happy, sane, and unmedicated.
The odds are against everyone and everything.
Then we have natural disasters like pole shifts super volcanoes or Carrington events.
Read about the Tick crap going on around the world. Lyme disease was bad enough but now it seems as if they carry five or six different illnesses including Alpha-gal syndrome (AGS).
It’s always a “bleak” year for the world’s poor, some years are just “bleaker” than others.
It’s really too bad there is not a group of people that followed the prophet Jesus, who preached treating everyone like your brother and that helping the poor should be your greatest calling.
Survival of the fittest!
Or maybe he is trying to reduce green house gases via less fuel consumption due to higher prices. He is such a champion of the environment and global warming.
Apparently fuel station revenues are up 12% but fuel volume sales are down 2%.
6 fiddy round these parts. 130 or so to fill my lifted pickup.