Marines Arrive in Middle East. Pentagon weighs sending 10,000 more.
Polymarket Rules
Polymarket Rules: This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran’s maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.
The odd of an invasion by April 30 are 63 percent. For the full year, the odds only go up 71 percent.
If I played this market and thought an invasion was likely, I would bet on December not April. The time value is worth more than the difference in my estimation.
One could also try various combinations of unequal bets against April but on December.
Another 10,000 Ground Troops to the Middle East
The Wall Street Journal reports Pentagon Weighs Sending Another 10,000 Ground Troops to the Middle East
The Pentagon is looking at sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East to give President Trump more military options even as he weighs peace talks with Tehran, Department of Defense officials with knowledge of the planning said.
The force, which would likely include infantry and armored vehicles, would be added to the roughly 5,000 Marines and the thousands of paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division who have already been ordered to the region.
It is unclear where precisely forces will go in the Middle East, but they will likely be within striking distance of Iran and Kharg Island, a crucial oil export hub off Iran’s coast.
Trump has repeatedly said he will open the Strait of Hormuz, with or without the help of U.S. allies.
“All announcements regarding troop deployments will come from the Department of War. As we have said, President Trump always has all military options at his disposal,” said Anna Kelly, the deputy White House press secretary. A spokesperson for U.S. Central Command, which is responsible for U.S. forces in the Middle East, declined to comment.
Military Experts Break Down Capabilities
PBS reports As more U.S. forces head to Mideast, military experts break down capabilities
As President Trump says he’s working on a deal to end the Iran war, more troops are heading to the region. John Yang discussed the capabilities of the forces and how they could be used with Joel Rayburn and Frederic Wehrey. Rayburn is a retired Army colonel and is now at the Hudson Institute. Wehrey is a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
John Yang: Jack Rayburn, let me start with you. What new capabilities will the United States forces have with these new troops?
Col. Joel Rayburn (Ret.): Well, the troops of the 82nd Airborne Division that are being deployed, that’s part of the Rapid Deployment Force that can deploy anywhere in the world with very short notice. The 82nd Airborne Division, the brigades and battalions of that division are uniquely trained for forcible entry into contested territory.
And they usually do that in order to pave the way for, open the way for follow-on, more robust, heavier forces to come in after them. So that’s an insertion force. The Marine forces that are coming, there are two Marine expeditionary units that are on their way as part of amphibious ready groups.
Those are the kind of forces that are trained and equipped to do amphibious assaults onto islands, onto ports or to seize vessels. So, two very similar forces, move rapidly, be able to be able to seize key infrastructure quickly.
John Yang: Fred, anything you don’t want to add to that?
Lt. Col. Frederic Wehrey (Ret.): I agree. These are remarkable forces. They strike deep. They strike hard. They’re quick Response Forces. As was mentioned, they’re designed to seize assets very quickly so that other forces can flow into a region as part of a larger assault force.
They’re not designed for longer-duration operations. And they’re also, I should add, self-contained, especially the Marine units. They have their own air support, their own armor, their own helicopters. And that makes them able to really go anywhere in the world and operate autonomously.
John Yang: Jack, how would you expect these troops to be used?
Col. Joel Rayburn (Ret.): Yes, I think clearly what’s happening here is that the president and Central Command are moving these assets into the theater to signal that they have the option, they have the capability of seizing islands such as Kharg Island or seizing potentially the islands that the Iranian regime uses in order to threaten the Strait of Hormuz.
There are several islands closer to the Strait of Hormuz from which they traditionally have done that, or also to provide supporting kind of seizure operations if there’s a military forcing of the strait. So it really increases the president and Central Command’s options.
John Yang: Fred, are these things a good idea? Is it a good idea to do this?
Lt. Col. Frederic Wehrey (Ret.): They’re, quite frankly, fraught with risk.
I mean, very — obviously, these forces could accomplish their tactical objectives. They could seize the island. They could destroy coastal missile batteries. They could seize various sites along the Strait of Hormuz.
But then the question is, what next? And, really, the question is, does that tactical advantage become a strategic liability? Because those forces are now exposed. We know that Iran has trained for this sort of scenario. There’s a saying among military planners that the enemy always gets a vote, right?
And so the Iranians may have multiple retaliation options against these forces, against staging areas, against the supply lines. The other big risk is that it will not completely free the Strait of Hormuz, right? It will certainly degrade Iran’s ability to disrupt the traffic coming in, but it won’t solve the problem completely.
And then I should also add, we have seen this before, where there’s an initial force, and because it doesn’t achieve its strategic objectives, it may achieve its tactical objectives, those strategic objectives remain unobtained or unfulfilled, that requires more forces.
You have to set up a buffer zone to protect those forces. And very quickly, you’re in a situation of mission creep.
John Yang: Jack, what do you think of — make of the fact that these forces were not in the region when this war began? What does that tell you?
Col. Joel Rayburn (Ret.): I think it means these were an option. I mean, look, military planners plan everything to the nth degree. I used to be one. I think Fred did too. You planned scenarios in branches and sequels to all of your base plans.
I just think it just means this was an option that they maybe hoped not to have to employ, but also they adapted to the situation. I think, look, as far as whether it’s a good idea, it’s a high-risk tactical operation, but the payoff is huge.
If there’s a U.S. seizure of Kharg Island, if there’s a U.S. forcing of the strait, militarily forcing of the strait, sort of game over for Tehran at that point. They’re pretty much — they’re out of strategic military options. They have been quite degraded.
We are the enemy that has gotten a vote in their game plan. They are off their game plan. I don’t think their command-and-control is coherent enough to be able to adapt. I think our forces are inside their OODA loop, if you will.
So, as I say, tactical risk of that kind of operation is high. The payoff strategically would also be quite high.
John Yang: And, Joel, I apologize for calling you Jack.
Fred, are these troops, do you think that they are leveraged for negotiations? Or are the — is the United States looking to change the trajectory of this war?
Lt. Col. Frederic Wehrey (Ret.): I think both could be at play.
And I agree with Joel that the military has obviously thought through multiple scenarios, but I’m just very concerned that the Iranians have thought this through before. And we don’t know their strategic calculus.
You seize a critical oil terminal like Kharg, you could empower hard-liners. You could really force the regime to dig in even deeper. I don’t think it’s game over for them. I think they have got redundancy. They have got resilience. They could open conflict in another theater. They could engage proxies.
So we don’t know their retaliation options. I think they see this as a long game, right? I mean, you’re talking about a generation of leadership that weathered the Iran-Iraq War. This is very short term for them, right? And so simply seizing these islands and these assets, I don’t know if it’s — I don’t think it’s going to change their strategic calculus about suddenly giving in to Trump’s terms.
John Yang: Fred, I want to stay with you for a second. There’s been a lot of talk about the rhetoric of the secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth. He talked about no quarter, no mercy for our enemies. He said there would be no stupid rules of engagement.
Early this week, he prayed that every round find its mark against the enemies of righteousness. What do you make of this?
Lt. Col. Frederic Wehrey (Ret.):
Well, it’s, quite frankly, shocking. It’s irresponsible, strategically reckless, ethically problematic on multiple fronts.
I mean, look, the Constitution specifies a separation between religion and state, between church and state. And so public officials are not supposed to use their office to push a particular religious vision. And that’s exactly what the secretary is doing with this very apocalyptic Christian nationalist vision.
The second issue is, the U.S. armed forces are very diverse. You have men and women of diverse faiths or no faiths at all. And that’s going to create frustration or alienation. It’s not a good leadership strategy. You’re not building inclusion.
I mean, the other problem with framing this…
John Yang: Fred, I’m going to interrupt you, because we’re running out of time, and I’d like to hear Joel’s thoughts on this.
Col. Joel Rayburn (Ret.): Yes, and I think Secretary Hegseth is the secretary at war. He’s trying to explain to his forces who are engaged while they’re fighting. And he’s trying to inspire them. He’s trying to — he’s trying to get — show them confidence in the campaign.
And I think he’s also — he’s also a little bit frustrated about the depiction of a campaign which is a one-sided contest being — as being something other than that.
Weeks of Occupation?
With just 20,000 troops?
Desert Storm Comparison
Operation Desert Storm took place from January 17, 1991, to February 28, 1991. The US-led combat phase began with an intense aerial bombardment on January 17, followed by a ground offensive starting February 24, ultimately liberating Kuwait from Iraqi occupation in 42 days.
The United States deployed approximately 697,000 troops to the Gulf region for Operation Desert Storm, making it the largest contributor to the coalition forces.
These forces, combined with coalition partners, formed a massive military presence to liberate Kuwait from Iraqi occupation, with over 500,000 U.S. troops located in Saudi Arabia.
Now we are talking 15,000 to 20,000 against a much better equipped Iran.
Seriously, what the hell?
US Would Need a Million Troops
The Independent reports The U.S. would need a million troops to control Iran – not the few thousand currently on their way
Donald Trump is thinking about sending an extra 10,000 soldiers to the Middle East, to join around 3,000 paratroopers and 5,000 U.S. Marines in carrying out ground attacks on Iran.
This is laughable. To succeed, Trump would have to deploy every single member of the U.S. armed forces to Iran – upwards of 1.3 million.
At the height of U.S.-led operations in Iraq, during the 2007-2008 “surge” ordered by George Bush Jr, around 185,000 American and allied troops were sent to quell an insurgency that had grown since its dictator had been toppled four years earlier by an allied invasion.
Add that number to the 450,000-550,000 Iraqi government forces working with the allies.
And then remember that the so-called Islamic State, formed by thugs from al-Qaeda and Saddam Hussein’s Baath party, took much of the north of the country in 2014, set up a “state,” and sponsored global terror for years. So three-quarters of a million soldiers were not enough to sort out Iraq.
The number of U.S. troops currently tasked with, or being considered for, carrying out military operations against a nation of 90 million people, which is about the size of Western Europe, is less than were sent to fight in Helmand, southern Afghanistan, at the peak of that conflict.
These are the kind of scenes that Trump promised Americans would never again have to witness in unnecessary wars of choice, especially not in the Middle East.
Kharg Island is more than 300 miles north of the Strait of Hormuz. It’s a valuable economic target, but would leave U.S. forces badly exposed to Iranian air attacks. And any coastal operations will, inevitably, take such troops deeper into Iran, where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps looks forward to applying the tactics and techniques it exported to Iraq and trained Hezbollah to use in Lebanon, on soldiers wearing the uniform of the “Great Satan.”
Lieutenant General Sir Nick Borton, a combat veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan who was also Director of Overseas Operations in the UK Ministry of Defence, estimates that the U.S. and any allies who joined it in an Iranian ground attack would need “many hundreds of thousands.”
Some former Nato generals have said that the U.S. would need to send “over a million, well over a million” troops to succeed in a ground war in the country.
“Ukraine is less than half the size and population of Iran. Russia invaded with 250,000, failed, and now has 800,000 there and still not winning. So one can conclude that a successful operation on a large scale in Iran would need a lot more than that. Of course, there could be a tactical operation to seize Kharg Island, or part of the coastline would require less – but for how long?” he told The Independent.
Iran has about 600,000 men in its ground forces, including the IRGC, the regular army, and the Basij militia. All of them are spoiling to get the U.S. sucked into an “Iraq 2.0” – the “nightmare” scenario.
So, for the Trump administration to send U.S. troops to the Iranian conflict may be an exciting activity for people in the Oval Office. But it is pointless, and risks delivering to the Iranians more Americans to kill.
April 30 or bust? If so, then what?
If not, then what?
Trump has no good options.
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Trump’s Top 4 Goals in Iran War
1) Carry out Israel’s Wishes
2) Get Everyone’s mind off Epstein
3) Win Lindsey Graham’s Praise
4) Hand the House and Senate over to Democrats so Republicans can again moan about deficits
Number four is not a confirmed success yet, but likely
1) Destroy Iran’s ability to make nuclear weapons
2) Recuperate the enriched uranium
3) Degrade their ability to destabilize the region
4) Give Mish something to talk about
1is done. 2 is in the works. 3 is almost done. 4 has been a resounding sucess.
1) not possible without complete control of Iran
2) (recover?) not possible without complete control of Iran
3) geography is king, not possible without complete control of Iran
4) economics guy charting the biggest economy “own goal”
There is also a 5th. Gain political control over oil and gas exports to get china to behave and europe to take care of its shit.
This is where mish should be spending his time on and not feeding TDS to doomsday cultists.
I prefer to be diplomatic to our host.
Europe is already working on that because of Russia. Far too slow, but they’re moving away from the US for sure. And China is panicking so hard right now that they are …. Doing nothing? Right. China is loving this, with their cheap Russian oil, months of stock and of course, the rare earths Card to play.
hmm, moving away from the US and towards China?
Not a good plan.
What they really need to do is patch up things with Russia and bring them into the western fold.
As for china, they just lost Venezuela and Iran’s cheap oil, and their hyper-sonic missiles and radar defence systems were just proven useless. They are anything but happy.
Although having big reserves will soften the blow, China’s export model is more exposed to a global slowdown than any other country. It hasn’t been reported in a long time here but China has been on a continual downward slide since Evergrande. They are in no position to handle a global shock.
China is in a better position to handle a global shock than we are. Venezuela is still selling oil to China. China remains the largest buyer of our American oil from our Venezuelan colony. They are increasing purchases of oil from Russia and Brazil. They have been rapidly expanding solar, hydro, and wind power to move quickly to electric vehicles, so that the US cannot ever control them unless we invade them.
I’ll need links for that. My searches came up with the exact opposite.
As for relying on wind, solar, and hydro to go electric? Well as they say “good luck with that”
Donald Trump ended all sanctions on oil from Venezuela, Iran and Russia. China is getting more oil than it knows what to do with and Iran is making big money for the first time in a decade.
Russian western defense strategy has been the same for 400 years. Expand west until Russia can hide behind the Carpathian Mountains and forward position its troops on the Polish plain and the Bessarabian Gap.
Make no mistake, the Kremlin’s plan is to invade everything to its west until you can draw a strait line from Transnistria to Kronenberg.
The doomsday cultists are the Trumpers…
Sound familiar?
Meanwhile Trump is about to crash the global economy and start a nuclear WWIII.
ignorant masses will always be ignorant.
Let me provide some enlightenment:
Attacking Iran has nothing to do with Iran and is everything about containing china.
as for Woke trannies/Illegal immigrants/DEI this is Marxism 2.0 that started with Russian agents in the 60s and has massively picked up steam with social media heavily promoted by China through TikTok. Yes it is wrecking the world.
UK is just down right dystopian claiming the title of rape capital of the world while arresting over 10,000 people a year for twitter posts. Canada and Australian law makers are following lock step and Europe is closing in behind us (Sweden and France now take top spots in rape statistics since the UK shutdown reporting).
Quod erat demonstradum
Your enlightenment smells like Fox News
Irrelevant and I’ve never watched it.
Maybe they’re on to something.
So you’re running a protection racket.
Love those down votes!
You will never catch me!
Iran has always had the ability to do what it is doing, but didn’t.
Even now it is holding its punches (civilians [residences, children, hospitals schools; unlike US/Israel], desalination, power, internet, nuclear plants — it’s following a strict tit-for-tat and announces how it would respond in advance.)
Pray tell what do you mean by destabilize if you are interpreting current US efforts as “stability”.
The US will likely succeed in convincing these people to let go their religious and moral qualms and go for nuclear deterrence as a necessary evil.
Ah yes. The famous “Black Kinight” strategy that works every time.
The only protection against American and Israeli aggression and treachery.
Bullshit.
https://x.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/2031531835453309125?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2031531836816359851%7Ctwgr%5E223b3e86fa514ef86dd52046410d597347eff511%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fmishtalk.com%2Feconomics%2Fwho-has-the-upper-hand-in-the-war-iran-the-us-anybody%2F
LOL. “Recuperate” the uranium?! Where are they going to send it to? Some kind of health spa?!
What an idiot.
1) Destroy Iran’s ability to make nuclear weapons (You cannot be assured of this unless you get a fundamental change in Iran’s leadership that is not a theocratic dictatorship. An Iranian leadership hellbent on destroying Israel and confronting “the West” will either restart their nuclear program or simply get nuclear weapons from North Korea or Russia.)
2) Recuperate the enriched uranium. (Same as above)
3) Degrade their ability to destabilize the region. (Without true regime change, what we are doing is temporarily degrading their ability to terrorize the region.)
4) Give Mish something to talk about.(No comment)
I could make a chair but it’s so much easier to buy one. Couldn’t the same be true of nuclear weapons?
Hi Mish,
Agree with 2, 3, 4.
A bit of disagreement on 1.
Total agreement that their will be boots on the ground by Dec 31.
When a 400,000,000 “present” of a plane is given as a sweetener above board and then the simple unspoken request is to “Protect” us from our enemies – one first thinks Israel, but the real fear is Iran and its Shia leaders will eventually figure out how to make a nuke – and use it against Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the other smaller practically defenseless Arab states. How to play an oil shock is not an old investment strategy – I am sure that all the insiders have made and will make lots of capital. I would also imagine that every US envoy to Arabia has gotten the red carpet rolled out for them and many ‘special’ favors granted them that even epstein wasn’t in a position to grant.
This is actually a Sunni vs. Shia war. The Gulf states want stability to mine and sell the oil. The “war” increasing the price of oil will be an offset (I have not run the numbers) to the reduced production so the tiny fraction of Arabia’s population may have to scale back some grandiose projects – but they will not suffer like the Sunni on the street will. Win for Arabian states. Loss for Asia and the World’s consumer class and all the poor of Arabia. That’s OK though – they will be fed the enemy propaganda that it’s all Israel. First the US middle class pay the tariffs, now we pay the higher oil prices. Soon, the cost of energy – which we all know is rolled into every product and service that is bought and sold.
Later we will pay the higher debt costs on 500 Billion or so dollars – a potential real cost of this war (not including future interest). No longer “Our Dollar Your Problem” its “Our Dollar Our Problem”
Finally the end (or significant reduction) of Social Security will come earlier and many in the US will suffer due us protecting the Oil producing states and their elite and infrastructure. Most likely massive slave reparation payments will precede our collapse. May need to relocate to the future great independent state of Texas!
I think the plan is to have the US consumer give back the last 70 years of prosperity.
Inflation from this event will take most American’s lifetime of saving value away from them a lot faster then if it had not happened.
We are the pawns of Arabia for the Petro-dollar. Israel is just an opportunist creating short to mid term “security” at the cost of long term peace. I honestly don’t expect Israel to survive the next 100 years.
Most of you know this already but the history of Aramco’s US ownership began in 1933 when the Standard Oil Company of California (SoCal, now Chevron) won a concession to explore for oil in Saudi Arabia, forming the California Arabian Standard Oil Company (CASOC). The company was renamed Arabian American Oil Company (Aramco) in 1944 and was owned by a consortium of major US oil firms: SoCal, Texaco (joined 1936), Standard Oil of New Jersey (Exxon), and Socony-Vacuum (Mobil). Energy is power, power is control, control is profit.
Future administrations will import displaced Arabs for ‘humanitarian’ reasons-they will rise to power and take political positions and use our military any way they see fit – isn’t now obvious that the government of the people for the people by the people is nothing but “noble lie.” There are already stirrings around the world looking at ‘radical Christians’ as a potential target. Don’t think that is an accident – bags of money can cause people to do things that seem out of place to the observer.
https://dailydeclaration.org.au/2026/02/18/nz-christians-war-games/
Do you want this here in the US?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g4x2zyer2o
Israel will be left to fend for itself. If I were Israel; I’d be negotiating with the rest of Arabia to sell them their country and simultaneously looking to buy somewhere else that needs the capital – say Argentina – but that may be like Pablo Escobar offering to pay off Colombia’s external debt – possible – but not practical.
Neighbor’s kid has been deployed; the whole family knows why they are really going – protect Oil Infrastructure and keep the Arab Elite from losing sleep at night. The youth of the US as the World’s police pay the ultimate price.
Starmer was the smart one to keep the young English kids out of a war that has no justification but is going to cost the US.
Well, back to the pop corn on this sh*t show – in Las Vegas or NY you can have 24k gold sprinkled on it. Makes it a Golden S-Show.
They are already trying to sell the theory that boots are not on the ground if the ground is one of the Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf.
Bet they wouldn’t be saying it if troops from Russia/China were to set foot on Catalina Island..
I don’t think he’s that patient to wait until December.
There’s a tremendous Evangelical angle you might consider. If they take Kharg Island on Easter it will fit in well with their Evangelical heresy. Kegsbreath might blow his load just screaming about the destruction and death for his God.
Considering the number of troops he’s bringing in and the type, this is not a mainland occupation force, nor is it a beachhead landing.
I think this is just to take the island. He’s not trying to open up the straits of trump (yes, he alluded to this already), but he’s trying to inflict more pain on Iran.
I would not be surprised if the Marines were effectively slaughtered. Not because they are marines but they are following orders of a mad man.
We the people of the United States have already bombed Iran into the dust of the desert. Only fitting that we now sacrifice our sons in the name of Donald Trump.
Does it look like we’re inside their OODA loop?
Or like they’re inside the US OODA loop?
The landing picture above shows a beach.
Iran’s coast is lined with mountains and cliffs falling deeply into the sea.
Deep State policy has been in force for decades.
Trump is not in charge; he is manipulated.
The policy is like a tanker.
The Donald is just a monkey on the deck performing antics to distract the attention from the actual course being set.
» The goal is to control maritime choke points, trade flows, especially energy.
» In a last ditch effort to stop off China and re-install US full-spectrum global dominance.
The end result is often a clue as to the intention.
What does it matter if Iran chokes energy flows instead of another party?
The only way to resume negotiations between the US-Israel and Iran would be to return to practices dating back to antiquity: a hostage exchange between the belligerents. Five or a thousand American hostages, for example, would constantly escort Iranian political and military figures, preventing any assassination attempts. A return to antiquity.
Food tasters, lol.
A little history examination is required…
when was the last war that dramatically affected much of the world?
The war in Ukraine is not over yet. I know the answer is supposed to be world war II, but I don’t think that’s accurate. “Dramatic affect” has some subjectivity.
Vietnam was not insignificant.
Taking over Iraq was not insignificant.
If you’re looking for something that affected every single country and nearly every single living being on the planet, then you have to go back to world war II.
Trump will do this will a low number of troops and it will probably be quite bloody, more so than necessary (presuming that a ground invasion is a ‘good’ idea).
What’s the under/over on when Houti and Blowfish close the Baba Booey Strait?
If Saudi sends its oil north through the canal to Europe then it will cover Europe’s needs in oil. Now Europe imports US crude so those cargos could sail for Asia instead of Europe. In all it would cover 40% of Asia’s oil shortfall. There will be some crude mismatches but we will let the refiners figure that one out. They are good at it.
It sounds nice, but you’re forgetting a reality about crude oil. Specific oil fields are refined by specific refineries. You can’t just swap out Venezuela crude for Canada sands and expect things to work.
The interchangeability of the raw material isn’t there like you imply. It’s only after it’s refined.
ULCCs and VLCCs cannot go through the Suez, unless they are empty!. The biggest ships that can pass through are the “Suezmax” class ships. Anything bigger has to necessarily go past the Bab-El-Mandeb Strait.
1) Carry out Israel’s Wishes
2) Get Everyone’s mind off Epstein3) Win Lindsey Graham’s Praise4) Hand the House and Senate over to Democrats so Republicans can again moan about deficitsI agree, that is the real list
perhaps the plan is a massacre on the beach
with lotsa gory video of US troops dying
prompting a further escalation
into the nuke realm
“we can’t have elections”
“I am prepared to have you die for my dreams”
“We could seize that island”
With ~8k troops?? Iraq took nearly 300k just in combat roles alone! What fantasy are we living in? One word: delusional. What in God’s name has happened to our once proud military to enable this kind of insane thinking?
Hegseth is a white-christian-nationalist that believes in speeding the arrival of Armageddon and the return of Jesus. There are many others with his beliefs in this admin and in the military
They itch to push the big button to remove the lesser peoples from the world and bring the triumph of Jesus forward.
History has shown that rabid religion excuses all deeds in war
“Space Jesus”
I never ever thought I would say this but America needs to be totally defanged after all is said and done. We are out of control.
And who would that leave in control?
Xi? Putin? Khomeini? Leyen? (Now there’s a laugh)
An actual out of control world would look vastly different than today.
Be grateful that all you have to worry about is Trump. The devils you don’t know – or worse, sympathize with, – are much worse.
Xi hasn’t launched any wars for pleasure lately or kidnapped anyone so I think Asia would be just fine. Putin is a rump with zero real power, and Iran was abiding by the deal we made and then broke. Please show me some examples of anyone else acting as bad as us who isn’t also a pariah. Go ahead, explain how out of control China’s “do nothing and let America kill itself” strategy is.
Crickets…
I’m only allowed one link, but there are many.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-abducted-forcibly-returned-own-112810220.html
Asia, and Africa, is only fine because the US keeps Russia and China in check.
A simple look into how these countries treat their neighbours, and partners, will quickly show what a mess the world would be in without the US
After the Marines and the 82nd take their respective areas, there is a plan to send the harden MAGA loyalist clowns to hold the ground. (300K)…There should be about at least, another 500K MAGA couch potato clowns to deal with the logistics. Wait, there is more….The reserve MAGA Christian youth. That should be enough….
If the Houthis close the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, then Saudi Arabia could declare force major with the Asian contracts and send the oil to Europe. Since summer is coming and Saudi Arabia’s terminal on the Red Sea at Yanbu is now pumping 7 million barrels a day, that would just about fill Europe’s oil needs. Asian countries would be a bit screwed but on the other hand they would not have to bid against Europe for the remaining oil. Unfortunately the bidding has moved from oil to the LPG market for Asia. On the plus side the US makes a lot of the stuff. The bad part is export capacity is limited. There is also a tanker shortage with so many stuck in the Gulf but tankers are moving out but none are moving back in so the shortage will sort itself out somewhat. Unfortunately that means oil will not be picked up from the Gulf anymore for a while.
JP Morgan supply chain advisory team has mapped out when the last of the Persian gulf oil will arrive in various global markets
https://www.reddit.com/r/PrepperIntel/comments/1s65x4t/jp_morgan_supply_chain_advisory_team_has_mapped/#lightbox
October is the real crunch time.
I agree on part one that Bab-el-Mandeb Strait will be closed, one way or another. However I do not see a tanker shortage because the shadow fleet plus the Russian and Iranian sanctioned tankers have been lifted and are racing to delivery points as quickly as they can secure contracts, empty their cargoes and schedule another cargo.
I said that the shortage will sort itself out as tankers leave the Gulf. There are 85 supertankers stuck there and at the rate of a few each day the number in the Gulf will diminish accordingly.
“ I said that the shortage will sort itself out as tankers leave the Gulf.
Getting tankers out of the gulf does nothing to restart 10+ mbpd of shut in production. The shortages of oil and LNG will persist until the war ends.
I never said it would solve the missing oil. I said that the tanker shortage will sort out only.
Of course Iran could just destroy the Saudi Arabia’s pipeline to the Red Sea.
Might be hard. Pipelines are easy to repair.
It’s very easy. Simply hit the pipeline pumping stations once a week and eventually, Saudi will shut it down.
If you can do it. Ukraine has been having not great success in knocking out the pumping stations for a long time.
Ukraine consultants pleased to assist
Yeah, that was my point. You’re playing chess while others are playing Tic-tac-toe.
Not sure what you are talking about. Europe gets very little oil from the Persian Gulf. Roughly 10%. Which is easily made up from its main suppliers; US, North Sea, Kazahkstan, Africa.
Saudi is only a tiny amount and Europe doesn’t need to get more from there.
The problem for Europe and the world is that with 10+ mbpd of oil production offline in the Gulf, the resulting shortages are forcing prices up, no matter what your source of supply is. Asia is paying $120-$150 for physical delivery and those prices will spread.
On the other hand, Europe gets a lot of LNG from the Gulf. That’s a problem for them. It will be difficult to fill their storage by next winter.
Europe imports 2.2 million from the US so you switch out the US oil and send it to Asia while Saudi Arabia sends its oil to Europe using its Red Sea terminal. It avoids the Houthis and covers Europe’s shortfall with a lot left over which would have to make the long voyage around Africa to get to Asia. Long but easily doable. The advantage is that if the Houthies want to close the entrance to the Red Sea it won’t have an effect on oil supplies. Of course gas is the problem for Europe.
Europe got only 11% of their gas from the Gulf. They get most from domestic production and the US and that is good. However they need to fill up before winter and are in direct completion with Asia for American gas. But China has been producing more gas lately and importing less so if they wanted they could send some gas to some of the poorer Asian countries. It is a possibility.
Probably not a good idea to spend weeks telegraphing our every move to the Iranians.
Keeps the Epstein files out of the news though, and that’s the real goal of this war.
the natives are restless 8 Million Rally Against Trump in Largest Single-Day Protest in US History
With ready-made printed signs and transportion!
Bullshit.
It’s called “planning”.
And financing.
Can we see some proof of le George Soros Jewish cabal funding already or are you and Sy going to continue to talk from your asses?
Yes, because it costs a lot to drive to a demonstration with a stick and some cardboard.
It’s called “George Soros”
I thought he was part of the Israel conspiracy… Hard to keep your lunatic conspiracy theories straight. And the soros things sounds stupid now that we have trump openly simping for Israel.
Old Queens Protest
I was shocked when driving to our local Tractor Supply yesterday to see what looked like 500 people protesting the war. A wide swath of small town rural Americans. So I drove around the perimeter to see if any of the farmers I know were there, and sure enough, a few Trump stickers confirmed that the tide has turned.
After church this morning? Lots of quiet conversations and not one MAGA hat! That is a big change!
I have no idea what the 60’s war protests were like, but without too much effort, you can hear the drums in the forest.
Yep….noticed same, MAGA hardliners in my ‘hood that still were flying their Trump flags in front of their houses have all taken them down.
I’ve heard this as well from a friend in southern NC
Not in mine, but i am surrounded by Bull Goose Looneys.
I thought it was 62% ?
the troops are arriving…. to cover the withdrawl, exactly what biden failed… to do last time.
Pakistan is ready to pounce on Israel. Christians are uniting with Hezbollah, it’s looking like Israel is outside the looking glass. It’s going to take more than 10,000 to take on the world on behalf of Israel.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/03/28/hezbollah-ras-baalbek-village-lebanon-christmas-tree/
Ras Baalbek, beautiful town. I’m sure the IDF will find the necessary “hospital tunnels” and “terror babies” which allows them (in their mind) permission to destroy it.
That comment simply makes me sad…
Hope you are wrong, but fear you are correct.
;-(
Not sure how I would feel about this if I was an American soldier. Sent off to kill people and potentially be killed or wounded with very little support by the civilian population for basically no reason all to satisfy the ego of a total asshole.
I think I would apply for a discharge.
As a minimum Trump should insist that the Israeli army should be the first ones on the beach. Why should Americans die for Israel?
discharge denied. we’re at war.
It’s an excursion!
A casual exercise, don cha know?
I bet that would be the answer.
“Why should Americans die for Israel?”
Cause Jeebus!
Who would Jeebus kill?
By eliminating Hamas and Hezbollah Israeli soldiers are dying for us.
How are either of those a threat to America? Of course, they are not. Whatever animosity exists towards the US is because of the support for Israël, which would make it circular reasoning.
When was the last time Hamas or Hezbollah did anything to America?
Opening up the Straight of Hormuz is a situational imperative, not a mission objective. Blowing up lots of things is not victory. Degrading naval forces and air defenses are tactical objectives. But anything short of fundamentally changing the leadership within Iran will be seen as a failure.
Once again, the entire Gulf (and approach) is within easy range of Iran
The entire Gulf needs to be guaranteed to be attack-free in order for “normal” to resume
This is so stupid, very very expensive, and probably a failure.
On the other hand, if the Americans invade Denmark they would have a seat in the EU and would get Greenland for free. And it would cost much much less.
Maybe Trump and Co. should invade Britain and then he could be a real King.
quoted: The US is wasting time and resources in overseas conflicts, National security should be built on domestic strength, specifically by securing our power grid and reducing global oil dependence. We have the technology, tools, solar, wind, advanced battery storage, nuclear power to make this happen.
We have the wrong people in place to make this happen.
Bravo! +100
And get a veto on all EU decisions!
What happens when an administration with a @36% approval rating gets a bunch of our soldiers killed?
And those soldiers killed in a pure war of choice on behalf of apartheid Israel.
You blame the Joe Biden of course.
Sadly, his approval rating would go up with a mass casualty event as it would result in more public support for the war. See: Pearl Harbor.
I think the Marines are deliberately being sent on a suicide mission for this very purpose.
I don’t really think it will play that way. Government and Media will try though. I think people have really had enough and something fundamental broke. You give the example of Pearl harbor, I counter with Tet offensive, and believe my example is more pertinent.
The majority will blame Trump.
I hope you’re right and I’m wrong. It depends on the fence sitters.
The US needs to keep an eye on Iran’s proxies: Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis. Israel is dealing with Hezbollah and Hamas, so that leaves the US to deal with Houthis in Yemen. Strategically, the Houthis have disrupted shipping in the Red Sea. 12% of the world’s oil is shipped through the Red Sea, so a US action against the Houthis would prevent a long term disruption. 20+% of the world’s oil is shipped through the Straits of Hormuz. A halt of 30+% of the world’s oil would throw the global economy into a sudden depression. The Houthis have missiles with a range of 1000 to 1500 miles, which creates the possibility they attack the US Navy from the West while Iran attacks from the East.
Based on the threat of further oil shipment risks and military crossfire, I think the US Marines are being sent to eliminate the Houthis in the short term, and present Iran with a threat later.
None of these issues existed before Operation Epic Fucktard ™
I think it would provoke the Houthis and they would close the entrance to the Red Sea to traffic. Perhaps deliberate by Trump since he seems determined to cause humanity as much stress, death and mayhem as possible.
Operation “What Epstein Files?”
“Ukraine is less than half the size and population of Iran. Russia invaded with 250,000, failed, and now has 800,000 there and still not winning. So one can conclude that a successful operation on a large scale in Iran would need a lot more than that. Of course, there could be a tactical operation to seize Kharg Island, or part of the coastline would require less – but for how long?” he told The Independent.”
The US Has assets and tech on the ground in Ukraine and the goals are not to win it and overwhelm Russia. NO WAY!
WAY: it is a MONEY MAKING OP. So, let’s not forget that Wars are about BANKERS, MONEY, the MIC and Presidents and Congressional Leaders bringing home the “Bacon.” The Bacon is had by:
Period, end of Story. DO NOT BE NAIVE. Wars are all about the Money, as well as banking Lobby Money from Commerce, Insurance, Big Pharma and so on.
I finally, the last ten years, began to frame my thinking around “WHO’S gonna Make Bank with this one.” Whatever it is, it always settles in cash.
Russian not winning?….do you know how to read a map?
Pay attention. Whether Russia is winning or losing is irrelevant; the money keeps flowing regardless.
I wouldn’t call this a win for Russia. They will have paid dearly for the Ukraine in blood and money and the hatred of the rest of the world. Kinda like the US and Iran situation.
Have they taken it?
I will not bet on the date of when Military People will be putting their lives on the block… to help push up the Stock Market?… for the Donald.
What has Trump accomplished in this war so far?
1. He has shown Iran how easy it is for them to control the strait of Hormuz. Something they have never attempted before. With this new knowledge, they are now negotiating “deals” with countries to charge tolls for safe passage through the strait. Pakistan and Thailand just announced they have struck deals with Iran for safe passage of some tankers.
Previously, in negotiations, Iran has asked for the right to run a nuclear program, etc. Now they are adding on the right to control the strait of Hormuz to their demands.
2. He has shown the other countries of the region that aligning yourself with the US for defense purposes does not make you safe. It makes you a target. These countries are taking a beating, especially economically. It will be interesting to see how this changes their relationship with the US in the future.
3. He is showing the world how crucial it is to maintain free and open trade with each other. The free flow of oil, gas, fertilizer, etc is absolutely essential to the world economy; a lesson that many are now learning, if they didn’t know already.
4. During both of Trump’s terms, he has been disrupting global supply chains. First with tariffs, and now with military actions. This is forcing our former friends, allies and trading partners into negotiating more trade deals with each other, and even trade deals with China and the other BRICs.
5. The countries of the world are learning how dependent they are on fossil fuels, and will want to diversify away from them as soon as possible. I expect greater interest in nuclear and renewables, two areas where China now dominates.
6. Another accomplishment will be the cost to the US of this war. In terms of debt, and lives. The further Trump doubles down, the more expensive this will get. If he sends in ground troops, expect the costs to skyrocket.
Point number two is exceptionally important to our economic future IMO.
“It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.” A statement often claimed to be made by Henry Kissinger
“Paper tiger”
Once again, the US failed to learn asymmetric warfare
Once again, high-tech expensive weapons platforms provide “shock-and-awe” but are not decisive in the long term
Broken toilets can disable a $13bil carrier
Navy ships are too vulnerable to risk in a combat region
Firing million dollar missiles to stop a drone cannot be done forever
It took 20 years and $2.5tril to replace the Taliban with the Taliban
Turns out, taking control of another country is hard
The sailors will get shore leave in Split. It’s a lovely town. I have been there a few times.
The purpose of the war has already been explained and the successes are pouring in – literally. Money. See where it’s taken from and where it ends up. A few thousand lives and millions of horrific injuries are a small price to pay as taxpayers in the west rush to throw more money into the trough. The rich get richer….
“The purpose of the war has already been explained and the successes are pouring in”
LOL! Really? I must have missed it.
Then please explain the purpose here to everyone. As well as the successes.
Trump’s Top 4 Goals in Iran War
1) Carry out Israel’s Wishes
2) Get Everyone’s mind off Epstein
3) Win Lindsey Graham’s Praise
4) Hand the House and Senate over to Democrats so Republicans can again moan about deficits
Number four is not a confirmed success yet, but likely
A good list. And Trump doesn’t mind spending hundreds of billions and sacrificing US military lives in order to accomplish it.
Probably not the list that John Overington will provide.
You forgot the money part in your list… Where in the list if it were five?
Pecuniary gain from self-induced market oscillation
Real estate deals
Trump’s only mode of thought is adding up money.
He is incapable of understanding anything in any other terms.
3-star Mishelin award for excellent comment!
I will add point
7 – Iran has learned just how much Europe and Asia is dependent on the Strait for oil. So much so that the global economy is on the verge of collapsing. I expect them to extract future “tolls” and concessions for the continued flow of oil, not just once but forever.
Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™
This may be a simplistic question but to me it was an obvious one to ask:
We land these troops, ships, planes whatever on this island with the aim of opening the strait
Okay it’s a success and the strait is open for US oil. Then what? We just up and leave?
I don’t see how that’s possible we’re going to have to be the referees there from now until…
Taking Kharg Island has nothing to do with opening the Strait. It’s where Iran loads its oil for export. You could take that island and shut down Iran’s oil exports, but you could do that with the Navy anyway. Taking Kharg Island would be just for show. Taking land along the Strait stops Iran’s ability to launch mines in the Strait. But does little or nothing to stop it from launching missiles from farther inland. I wouldn’t expect Trump to think through any of this. He’s just too dumb. But it is his style: keep ratcheting up pressure and see what difference it makes. In this instance, it just gets a lot of US troops killed, not that he would care. Hopefully military leaders are working together to find a way out of this. But I doubt it, generals love to play cowboys and indians. Honestly, our best and brightest at the top couldn’t get us out of Afghanistan without a fiasco, and that was with access to overwhelming force.
So here’s the deal: Trump will invade Iran unconstitionally. That’s a given at this point. The markets will initially pop. That will be your last chance to sell into an up market. Then the Iranians will crush the 5,000 or so Marines along the Iranian coast. That’s the point the world, and even the dimwit Trump, sees that we’ve lost. Markets will crash, slowly at first to let the whales out (including the Trumps and Kushners). Then all at once.
you say…You could take that island and shut down Iran’s oil exports, but you could do that with the Navy anyway.
That’s assuming the Navy was willing to risk entering the Gulf–they are a long, safe way away from danger
They don’t have to enter the gulf. All Iranian oil is exported in tankers. The Navy just has to intercept those tankers anywhere in the Indian Ocean outside of the range of Iranian missile attacks. Trump has ended all sanctions on Iranian oil exports because he needs as much oil to hit global markets as possible.
Kharg Island is not loading any tankers and none have been there to fill since this shitstorm started. It is easy to keep Iran from exporting oil.
I do not see any good entry for those soldiers as a ground war is not remotely necessary or appropriate.
The entire Gulf is within easy range of Iranian attacks
“Opening the Strait” is a red-herring
The entire Gulf has to be free of potential attacks for “normal” to resume
The economic time-bomb is ticking
Every week this “excursion” continues, it deepens and lengthens the world’s economic crisis through shortages and destruction of producing capability
By the time this fact penetrates Trump’s addled brain this WILL be catastrophic for much of the world
Time is on Iran’s side–every day this continues it is another demonstration of the decline of the US “superpower” status
A ludicrously small force landing on some unknown scrap of land will be nothing more than Hegseth’s sick need for the “final” battle and will be only glorified in the 2 minute heavily edited war video provided for Trump’s amusement
Maybe this is how they work to get Trump’s interest back for a war he’s becoming bored of. Promises of D-day, Iwo Jima, etc..
Maybe this will give his popularity numbers the boost he’s seeking
Meanwhile, members of the prospective landing force are told to get their personal affairs “in order”
And the economic clock is ticking.
(and this is why there is talk of war in an economics blog)
“Hegseths Gallipoli”
Man, with so many military tacticians and strategists in this comments section I’m not afraid us going to war with any enemy 🙂 Everybody here knows everything about politics, economics and military and if they were in charge the world would be a paradise 🙂
That’s right buddy, we’re all armchair generals…now boot up and die for israel
Can’t blame us for that. We are human beings and we like to speculate, talk, judge and generally find fault because that is what we like to do.
The famous Prussian field marshal Helmuth von Moltke the Elder famously wrote, “Eternal peace is a dream—and not even a beautiful one,” asserting that war is a divine-ordained part of the world’s order and essential for high moral purpose. He argued that peace movements were delusions, as conflict is ingrained in human nature and state survival.
Significance of War: He believed war fosters virtues like courage, self-denial, and obedience, whereas a long, uninterrupted peace could lead to stagnation.
“No Plan Survives…”: This quote is part of his broader, more famous philosophy that operational plans are limited in the face of unpredictable battlefield realities, often paraphrased as “No plan survives contact with the enemy”.
Solders enlist in the military with the thought that one day they may die while fighting an enemy. Whoever believed that they will serve their time just sitting in the bases doing nothing and getting drunk during the weekends has it completely wrong. In other words – bags with bodies coming back is something that’s expected and planned for. The same applies to the world order and economy – from time to time they get disturbed – deal with it 🙂
Gee, how come we don’t trust a back-dealing senile old coot and neo-fascist white Christian end-time warriors with our future.
The real military generals and strategists had repeatedly warned Trump that attacking Iran would be a huge mistake. Trump thought he knew better than everyone else and here we are.
Trump, of course, is a tactician to rival Hannibal, a strategist greater than Nimitz, a warlord whose feats in battle and also golf make Genghis Khan look like a piker.
I don’t think we could have done much worse than Trump and his cronies.
Max stupid, max greed, max evil.
Oh look, another one post wonder!
It would probably be very different from Afghanistan. Many weapons (manpads, drones) would arrive from the north, preventing the relative air protection that existed in Afghanistan. Therefore, a war with many American deaths. The perfect quagmire. I think the main rivals (Russia, China) are dreaming of it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OjrHBjV9pE This is well explained here
Trump Panics as US Bond Yields Explode, Forcing Iran Delay!
https://www.mexc.co/news/988912
Do you think US bonds might get downgraded again? I wonder where that inflection point is?
Absolutely yes! And that presents a large problem. I think we are past the inflection point and it is only a matter of time. The risk for any credit rating agency is wrath from Trump and his sycophants that have been planted in roles where they can be extremely punitive to anyone that tells the truth.
More debt means more bonds, means lower bond value, means higher interest rates. How high can the ten year go?
“The Independent reports The U.S. would need a million troops to control Iran – not the few thousand currently on their way.”
The US goal is to destroy things for the sake of destruction, not to occupy Iran.
Libya is the model here.
A few thousand troops will not “destroy” Iran
It’s a suicide mission to provide different video for Trumps 2 minute daily video summary
You see, he’s bored of the war and wants some “real” war
Remember that IF things drag on: “DANG IT, more money for ME.”
The me’s are the Lobbyists, channeling funding into Congress and TrumpCo and the MIC itself, with higher bonuses.
The troops can be used to destroy coastal facilities. They won’t take and hold.
Iran has 2000km of coast on the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman
Which 5km stretch of beach render Iran impotent?
It’s not like The Guns of Navarrone
Remember Trumps quote, it is more fun to sink their ships than capture them?
and Hegseth, no quarter will be given?
I think Iran will be sharpening their meat grinder at this point.
This has been repeated many times. 80% of young men wouldn’t qualify for a draft because of a long list of issues (Pentagon study). If Trump invades, it will be an economic, military and political disaster – possibly worse than Vietnam because of loss of the Petrodollar and inflation. OTOH, it will bring US hegemony to an end permanently.
We’d probably be better off.
Petrodollar old wives tales the dollar is ledger account math trade and that means convenient transactions so learn what that means…..
Rob Schneider calls for US to ‘restore military draft for our nation’s young people’ amid Iran war
Wow…that’s weird. Let me check his Early Life….
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rob_Schneider
And just when we thought it couldn’t get worse? It does…
Restoring production on Kharg and indeed the Persian gulf will take a serious amount of time and resources.The global economy has been sucker punched with brass knuckles.
The US may not need or want the strait to re-open (Blame it on Iran)! With the US being the largest exporter of refined oil products? LNG? Helium? We are relatively self-reliant and have an agile and creative economy…
To me, Occam’s razor says disruption and selective profiteering is the goal. No one is talking about Epstein these daze. Chinas chip industry without helium is crushed. Cashflow to the Middle East is crushed. Many competing nations come to a standstill.
Is global disruption the goal?
This could be simple but massive profiteering without any good solutions for the Gulf States, or those that are dependent on them for energy.
15,000 troops is not an invasion capable or occupying force!
Hmmmmmmmm? Any thoughts?
Sometimes it is best to check your premises and re-evaluate everything.
Is disruption the goal? If so, it is working!
The invasion alternative is a known quagmire. No one could be that stupid and squander our resources & servicemen’s lives.
I agree, and we best not do so, unless we know it’s an in/out strike with massive damage following, losing 100’s of soldiers would be a bad move for sure!
Good Morning!
Well when you look at it that way the main beneficiary for this is Russia. If the Middle East shuts down completely Russia is conveniently located and just happens to have a lot of oil and at $200 barrel Europe might be allowed to buy some if they sacrifice the Ukraine and a few other countries.
Agreed, I’m trying to look at this situation from many perspectives because the only thing I know for certain, is that I do not know what is going on in the mind of Trump or his handlers.
what happens when the Gulf countries are low on American dollars because of the lock on trade Iran has imposed?
We may want to start looking at that perspective.
I would expect a rise in interest rates and a fall in stock prices but I need to explore more what the fall in oil trade will do.
what will be the alternative that the oil money would go into? will it buy oil from another producer? will it go into the refinery owners pockets? Idk, but it seems very few people are discussing this aspect
– And just when we thought it couldn’t get worse? > It can always get worse.
– The US may not need the strait to re-open. > The U.S. needs the strait to open. It’s their top priority. We made this mess, and we must clean it up for the Neighbors, if you will, that had nothing to do with it, but are overwhelmingly feeling the consequences. We probably need it open more than anyone.
– Chinas chip industry without helium is crushed. > Old news, as China has increased their Helium production over the past 4-5 years, and get the rest from Russia & Qatar.
– Is global disruption the goal? > The Globe isn’t disrupted, but parts are. Many nations are doing just fine. Nations that overspent, and underestimated are in trouble (Ex. Germany & UK) at the moment.
– 15,000 troops is not an invasion capable or occupying force! > I thought we didn’t need “Boots on the Ground” Why again do we need to do so. Did we miscalculate our offensive? Not take out as much capabilities than we thought? What’s up?
– Hmmmmmmmm? Any thoughts? > The U.S. Seems to be going in too many directions. Work with the Countries that use the Strait, and Open it back up with help, or leave it closed, until they help. We should all be working together on this topic. They Need and We can help!! It’s probably just going behind the scenes at the moment. I know mind sweeping has to be done too.it’s a mess at the moment, but a very fixable one.
They aren’t dumb enough to occupy the entire country. this operation will be focus on Kharg island and opening the straits. It will be dangerous, I’m glad I won’t participate in this fiasco (this time).
This would be burning your brand new house full of new stuff to collect the insurance money. Some industries in the US may benefit from the Hormuz and oil disruption but the global economy will crash.
Asia’s and Europe’s economies failing won’t be isolated and limited to those areas, every business in America has some type of dependency on those economies. Every 401k will take a huge hit.
“We are relatively self-reliant and have an agile and creative economy”
If manufactured imports from Asia stop, we are FUBAR. The U.S. no longer has manufacturing capability to produce even the basics.
63%…????….try 100%
There, fixed it for you.
This is a complete Farce … so far the Iranians haven’t given a crap about any announcement made by the US so scare tactics aren’t working very well … simply put the economic situation of the world can’t wait much longer for this situation to be resolved one way or the other … so somebody needs to get off their ass and do something …. and Very Soon …
They’ve been lied to and betrayed too many times, they aren’t going to believe anything we say.
“L.O.S.E.R.” Drumpf is accelerating what started a long time ago.
“F u very much” to voters who voted uniparty all these years. Because they failed to find their way out of a paper bag, I look forward to savoring various brands of cat food when my social security buys little else.
With 2 parties as the Uniparty….
Who do you vote for?
If you get full SS benefits in a few years. I’m in the same boat.
Planning should be done months before the war starts. If Pentagon does it now it is not planning, it is improvisation. In this war Pentagon is weeks behind the curve, just trying to catch up with situation. It is not a fault of US military, it is the fault of political leadership which gave wrong marching orders to Pentagon.
Israel is more and more focusing on its war in southern Lebanon. The US is going to end up fighting Iran alone.
Israel tries to avoid enemies that can actually shoot back. Best to leave that to the Americans.
Since everybody “knows” that they are there to take Kharg island and other ones and media sources claim insider knowledge from officials I would conclude that the real objective is something else. Iran has rushed men and equipment to those islands as the rumors came out so if it effectively is a psyop it worked as expected because Iran has to defend them even if they suspect it is a feint. In my humble view Kharg is out. It’s somewhere else.
I imagine Trump/Hegseth would go for it. But also assume the Generals on the other hand may have looked at a map of where Kharg Island is. Vessels would be exposed to Iranian attacks for 100’s of km and air drop from slow transports is even more likely to result in massive casualties. Attacks on the islands at the mouth of the Gulf more likely but still risky. Perhaps a landing in far east Iran to test the resolve of the Govt and people.
– I conclude that the real objective is something else. > This is a mystery. Its vital importance is to Iran for Exports & $ of course, but we could simply blow it all up, if we truly wanted to bring them to their knees. I was under the impression that we wanted to leave that alone, for the New Leadership to have as a resource, as they will need it!
– Iran has rushed men and equipment to those islands as the rumors came out. > This would be an ugly war attempt, with lots of casualties of men and equipment if we try. Iran has nothing to lose at that point, and would throw everything they have at everyone they can reach, and blame America for it! You may be right about this, so then where would they strike, if anywhere else, at this point?
Jask. If you want leverage it would Jask. First it is Iran’s best alternative to Kharg. Second it is isolated in a desert environment and last of all it is a province that is very restive and not happy with Tehran. They are not Persian. It is on the Indian Ocean side.
It is also the port where smuggled missile and drone components land as well as the port where the Houthis get their weapons and missile parts.
A force that size is designed for a limited operation. I think the straits and Kharg are targets.
I recall rumors of amphibious assault ships being brought in for the Strait, but nothing since then? Perhaps this is the plan and it’s been activated.
Col. Joel Rayburn (Ret.): I think it means these were an option. I mean, look, military planners plan everything to the nth degree. I used to be one. I think Fred did too. You planned scenarios in branches and sequels to all of your base plans.
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hey planner.!
how is that vietnam , iraq , afganistan thing going on ?
jesus!
You left out Korea and, depending how you look at it, don’t we still have a lot of troops in Europe since the end of WW2?
if there’s a U.S. seizure of Kharg Island, if there’s a U.S. forcing of the strait, militarily forcing of the strait, sort of game over for Tehran at that point. They’re pretty much — they’re out of strategic military options. They have been quite degraded.
===
jesus!
but they will likely be within striking distance of Iran and Kharg Island, a crucial oil export hub off Iran’s coast.
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i like reading western media material constructed for dumb fuc11ked Americans.
and i like esp those catch phrases: decapitated, crucial oil export , game changer, game over , tc etc
===
so lets deconstruct this ‘crucial oil export hub ‘ whole game !
=1 IRAN produce oil/gas, somewhere outside Kharg Island!
why did not USA/israel bomb those sites?
=2 Iran move oil/gas into Kharg Island using pipelines, esp visible ones that actually connect mainland and Island via water!
why did not USA/israel bomb those pipelines?
=3 THERE IS whole infrastructure on island. IT SEEMS USA tried to bomb that!
=4 and last
after oil/gas delivered into island , oil/gas is moved using ships from island
,so why did not USA/israel bomb those ships? it seems trump bragged how USA can bomb any Iranian ship in Hormuz! so what is problem?
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so after analyzing this simple information ,you do realize what is plan!
bring troops, take over island, take some losses and DECLARE A VICTORY for USA ppl!
and SPRING/ SUMMER IS OVER.. !! THAT IS THE PLAN.
alx
@ alx.
Sometimes I struggle to distinguish between what you’re quoting and your own commentary. If you don’t mind, please format your contributions a little differently.
Trump is a gambler. And the more he feels stuck in this situation, the more willing he is to take risks in order to free himself from the quagmire he created.
The Islands of Larak and Hormuz are the choke points of the Strait. If the US can gain a permanent foothold there, it would make much harder for Iran to continue to block the Strait. The problem is that any US force stationed there would be subjected to constant and relentless bombardment and would be shredded to pieces.
So I’d not be surprised if Trump orders the Marines to take the islands of Larak or/and Hormuz in order to control the Strait and then threaten to nuke Tehran if the US troops there come under fire. Thinking that with this approach, he can free up the Strait while not having to carry out a full blown invasion.
I am not saying that is a good or wise strategy. Just that he is crazy and desperate enough to threaten that.
The Islands of Larak and Hormuz are the choke points of the Strait. If the US can gain a permanent foothold there, it would make much harder for Iran to continue to block the Strait.\
==
another geo challenged person who cant open map on Google
buddy , Hormuz is middle point between persian gulf (1000km), and
Oman gulf (300 km length)
catch is : it is Iran who controls own side of Persian gulf and Oman gulf!
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yes , Persian and Oman gulfs are wider, and yet pretty much under attack from any point from Iran side.
got it?
do you know what it would take to control 1000+ km of sea shorelines
to stop military send UAVS on Iran side to hit ships?
alx
=hen threaten to nuke Tehran if the US troops there come under fire.
what is going to happen if Putin would nuke Ukraine, or China Taiwan
or N. Korea S. korea?
=====
do you know Pandora;s box meaning?
alx
I could see him saying “You know we could nuke Iran. I’m not going to, but I could do it”.
My guess would be to control the Strait of Hormuz. I would bet yes by the end of April. I still might since I got my invite to join Polymarket. Kalshi doesn’t have predictions on specific military actions. But more US casualties would be very unpopular. But then maybe he thinks opening the Strait is worth bringing down oil prices. Nothing would surprise me from this sick SOB. He told everyone he wanted to avoid foreign wars, but here we are.
=But then maybe he thinks opening the Strait is worth bringing down oil prices.
notion that direct open military operation inside Strait would ‘bring down prices’ is really funny!!
>> He told everyone he wanted to avoid foreign wars, but here we are.
People saw and heard what he wanted them to hear — when he spoke out both sides of his mouth.
After this, Trump voters have no right to call Kamala voters stupid.
I had *hoped* for better than Biden. (Such a low bar!). And I am seriously surprised by how bad the new admin is. But I warned people he is not a peacemaker. Before his first term, Drumpf criticised the Iraq war and hired Bolton and Abrahms. He armed the Zelensky proxy, destroyed the treaty with Iran, assassinated one of its leaders, effectively stole Citgo from Venezuela, and continued the destruction of Syria. He exposed himself as a thug in his first term.
Before his second term, he boasted about his covid response. Every cucktard who ever complained about mRNA jabs, fauci, and lockdowns and then voted for this guy is a stupid fuck. He also bragged about arming Zelensky, threatening to bomb Moscow, and saying he could end the war in 24 hours. You do not say these things simultaneously without being a liar. You do not vote for a person saying these things without being stupid. (That goes for all my personal friends, who all voted for him. No amount of explanation seems to work.)
People who vote uniparty waste their vote, every single time.
Hey Mish, off topic but how about at the bottom of this page where you have the search art box, there’s a link so we can browse your art store. It’s difficult to find the browse option even after you’ve been there before.
Incessant lying was disqualifying enough. But supporters I know just say “you don’t like his policies”. Apparenty, character doesn’t matter to them.