The former UK intelligence chief says Iran Has the upper hand.
US Has ‘Lost Initiative to Iran’
MiddleEastEye reports Former head of UK’s MI6 says Iran has ‘upper hand’ in war with US and Israel
“The reality is the US underestimated the task and I think as of about two weeks ago lost the initiative to Iran,” Sir Alex Younger, who ran the UK’s Secret Intelligence Service from 2014 to 2020, told the Economist in a podcast interview.
“In practice, the Iranian regime has been more resilient than I think anyone would have expected,” Younger said.
“They took some good decisions – as early as last June – about dispersing their military capability and delegating the authority for the use of those weapons, which has given them significant extra resilience against this incredibly powerful air campaign.”
The UK’s former spy chief said that US Donald Trump “has said some stuff” that will have confirmed to Iran that “they’re in a civilisational war… they’re in a war of existence”.
“Whereas America has embarked on a war of choice, and in those terms, that’s imbued Iran with more staying power than their US counterparts,” Younger said.
The US and Israel began their war on Iran on 28 February, striking targets across the country and killing key Iranian officials, including the former supreme leader Ali Khamanei and former security chief Ali Larijani.
But Iran has struck back at Gulf countries hosting US military bases and has maintained control of the Strait of Hormuz, the vital energy chokehold through which 20 percent of the world’s oil passes.
Iran has ‘whip hand’
Younger said Iran had embarked on “horizontal escalation”, firing rockets at Gulf countries and putting pressure on the US that way.
“They’ve understood the significance of the energy war and held the straits at threat and globalised the conflict in a way that gives them some weapons. They’ve played a weak hand well,” the former British intelligence officer said.
Controlling the Strait of Hormuz had, Younger said, given Iran the “whip hand” in the war.
The New York Times reported this week that promises made by Mossad, Israel’s external intelligence agency, about being able to instigate regime change in Iran had helped convince the US to go to war there.
Can You Win a War With No Plans?
Following behind closed doors briefing from Trump administration officials, Democratic senators condemn ‘complete incoherence’
Here’s US Senator Chris Murphy.
Endless War
5/ 5/ And on the Strait of Hormuz, they had NO PLAN. I can’t go into more detail about how Iran gums up the Strait, but suffice it say, right now, they don’t know how to get it safely back open. Which is unforgiveable, because this part of the disaster was 100% foreseeable.
No Plan for Anything
Please consider US has ‘no plan’ for Iran war and Strait of Hormuz, senators say after briefing
Democratic senators said on Tuesday night that the US has “no plan” for the war on Iran, after President Donald Trump’s administration conducted a two-hour behind-closed-doors briefing for the Senate Armed Services Committee.
This absence of any coordinated strategic thinking extends to the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy chokepoint, regime change in Iran and the Islamic Republic’s nuclear programme.
Following the Trump administration’s briefing on Tuesday, a procession of opposition senators came out to condemn what they described as the illegality, incoherence and lies surrounding the war, with Senator Chris Van Hollen of Maryland saying Trump was simply doing what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had wanted to do for 40 years.
“What you hear behind closed doors is essentially what we’re hearing in the public domain, which is complete incoherence,” Van Hollen said after the briefing.
“But we do know, from Secretary Rubio, that Netanyahu decided to strike Iran, and so here we are doing what Prime Minister Netanyahu said he wanted to do for 40 years, which was to attack Iran,” Van Hollen said, referring to remarks made by Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, on 2 March.
“It is so much worse than you thought,” said Elizabeth Warren, the Massachusetts senator.
“The Trump administration has no plan in Iran. This illegal war is based on lies and it was launched without any imminent threat to our nation. Trump has not given a single clear reason for the war and has no plan to end it.”
No regime change, no Strait of Hormuz plan
The senators who spoke out after the US briefing all condemned the apparent lack of any plan or any real objectives when it came to every area of the war on Iran.
Both Van Hollen and Chris Murphy, a senator from Connecticut, said that they’d been told in the briefing that the US administration’s goals for the war did not involve destroying Iran’s nuclear programme or bringing about regime change.
“So, they are going to spend hundreds of billions of your taxpayer dollars, get a whole bunch of Americans killed, and a hardline regime – probably a more anti-American hardline regime – will still be in charge,” Murphy said.
Van Hollen echoed this, referring to public reporting on the CIA’s assessment of what would happen if the Iranian leadership was taken out, which is that “you’re likely to get an even more radical group”.
In his remarks following the behind-closed-doors briefing, Van Hollen said that before the arrival of Trump in the White House, “Netanyahu had not found a president stupid enough to drag the US” into war with Iran.
“And now Donald Trump has done it, and they don’t have a clue as to what the endgame is,” Van Hollen said.
These comments chime with those of Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli diplomat and adviser to four foreign ministers, who told MEE that Israel had led the US into the war on Iran.
“This has been Netanyahu’s fantasy for a long time,” Pinkas said. “He has political reasons and pretexts: changing the narrative of the 7 October catastrophe and deflecting attention from his trial and the upcoming election.
“Netanyahu has been trying to co-opt and manipulate Trump into a major war for the last year,” Pinkas said. “And Trump has his own wag-the-dog issues here: Epstein, his own polls, the Supreme Court.”
Iran is already in the hands of a more radical group.
What’s the War Timeline?
- The US timeline keeps shifting.
- At first it was a few days, foolishly promoting a citizen uprising and government overthrow.
- Then it was a few weeks. Then 2-4 weeks.
- Now it’s 4-6 weeks “as we’ve said all along”.
- Iran has no timeline at all. It’s only goal is to inflict as much pain on Trump and Israel as possible.
This will not be over in 4-6 weeks unless Trump makes major concessions to Iran.
Iran’s Current Demands
- Strait of Hormuz Control: Iran demands recognition of its control over the vital oil artery, including the right to charge transit fees to passing ships.
- End of Regional U.S. Presence: The closure of all U.S. military bases in the Middle East.
- Reparations and Sanctions Relief: Compensation from the U.S. and Israel for war damages and the total lifting of all international sanctions.
- Security Guarantees: Concrete, ironclad guarantees that the U.S. will not initiate future attacks, and a pledge to stop military operations against Iranian-backed groups.
- Defense Capabilities: No restrictions on its ballistic missile program or nuclear activities.
- Extradition of Media Personnel: Iran has reportedly requested the extradition of certain “hostile” media figures.
Those demands are in response to a proposed 15-point U.S. peace plan which Iran dismissed before presenting its conditions.
Are the Sides Negotiating?
Of course not. The demands and counter-demand are so conflicting there is nothing to negotiate.
There are however, intermediaries attempting to get the US and Iran to negotiate.
Trump calls these hopeless efforts negotiating. Then again, Trump contradicted himself with an amazing statement.
“We will not negotiate. Of course they’re negotiating. Who wouldn’t negotiate,” said Trump.
Ground Troops Not Needed
I am pleased to report Rubio says Iran war to last ‘weeks not months,’ no US ground troops needed
The U.S. expects its military operations against Iran to conclude within weeks, not months, and Washington can meet all its objectives without using ground troops, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday.
Rubio told reporters after meeting G7 counterparts in France that Washington was “on or ahead of schedule in that operation, and expect to conclude it at the appropriate time here – a matter of weeks, not months.”
While he said the U.S. could achieve its aims without ground troops, he acknowledged it was deploying some to the region “to give the president maximum optionality and maximum opportunity to adjust the contingencies, should they emerge.”
Rubio discussed with G7 foreign ministers the possibility that Iran, even after the conflict ends, could try to impose shipping tolls through the Strait of Hormuz. Rubio said European and Asian countries that benefit from trade through the waterway should contribute to efforts to secure free passage, downplaying U.S. dependence on the trade. [Mish: What?!!]
[Mish: So we are going to end the war with Iran possibly to “impose shipping tolls through the Strait of Hormuz” but that’s OK because the US is less dependent on trade through the strait.”
Productive Negotiations
U.S. President Donald Trump has appeared anxious to wind down the unpopular war, and emphasized this week what he has described as productive negotiations aimed at a diplomatic solution, despite repeated assertions from Tehran that no such talks have begun. On Thursday, Trump extended a deadline by 10 days for Iran to reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz or face attacks against its civilian energy grid.
[Mish: The negotiations are going well despite the fact the US doesn’t negotiate]
If that sounds idiotic, it’s because it is idiotic.
But it typifies Trump. He makes demands. Then he pisses and moans “Iran won’t negotiate.”
Trump “Not Sure He’s Willing to Make a Deal with Iran”
On March 26, I noted Trump “Not Sure He’s Willing to Make a Deal with Iran”
“They are begging to make a deal, not me. They’re begging to make a deal.”
To recap. The negotiations are going well despite the fact that Trump isn’t negotiating, but Iran is, and who wouldn’t, even though Trump is not sure he’s willing to make a deal.
Unfortunately, that single sentence describes Trump’s entire US foreign policy.
This is why we are at war now.
Trump said he could get a better deal than Obama, tore up Obama’s deal, listed a set of idiotic demand that Iran could not accept, and got no deal at all.
What If Iran Just Honored Obama’s Nuclear Deal? Would We Be at War?
If you want to understand why we are in this stupid war, please see What If Iran Just Honored Obama’s Nuclear Deal? Would We Be at War?
Trump’s First Term Flashback
- Trump’s US State Department: Iran honoring the terms.
- Trump’s Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: Iran honoring the terms.
- International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA): Iran honoring the terms.
- Arms Control Association: Iran honoring the terms.
- All US European allies: Iran honoring the terms.
- Every other signee of the accord: Iran honoring the terms.
- Trump’s top general Gen. Joseph Dunford: Iran honoring the terms.
- Trump’s Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis: Iran was complying with the terms of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal
Please note all 8 points. And they are all on record. Specifically, points 7 and 8 are in Congressional testimony.
Nonetheless, Trump ignored all of that, tore up the deal, then listened to Netanyahu, and now we are at war.
Netanyahu’s goal was never a deal. It always was war. Netanyahu got what he wanted. So did Ted Cruz, Pete Hegseth, and Lindsey Graham.
Trump Wants a Speedy End to the War He Started
But now, Trump Wants a Speedy End to the War He Started. OK, So What?
When you start a war, the other side has a say when it ends.
Feeling the pain of prices at the pump and a MAGA war backlash, Trump wants a speedy end.
However, Iran’s goal is to inflict as much pain on the US as possible. This is a big F U to Trump.
Trump’s only recourse is to lie “They are desperate for a deal.”
Troops Not Needed
Meanwhile, despite the fact that troops are not needed, Trump is sending 10,000 more troops to the region, “just in case”.
The betting markets believe There’s a 63 Percent Chance the US Invades Iran by April 30
Marines Arrive in Middle East. Pentagon weighs sending 10,000 more.
Guess what? 10,000 troop would not be enough. Desert Storm took 700,000 troops against a much smaller and weaker Iraq with no drones.
If the US tries a limited military invasion, It’s going to be an even bigger mess. Iran is prepared.
See above link for details and discussion.
Here is an idea: let’s wait until Iran has nuclear-armed ICBMs, 10,000 ballistic missiles, a Chinese- and Russian-built military, a million attack drones, a fully operational terror network, and hundreds of billions to harden its economy. Then we’ll fight to reopen Hormuz.
Let’s have someone on the right give us a quick summary of the important efforts and goals in the Iran theater. Good luck!
Here is an analysis by Alastair Crooke(MI6 etc) regarding the shifting power dynamics in the Middle East: “He argues that Iran is emerging as a dominant power while Western influence and their regional allies are in decline. Crooke argues that the US strategy to contain Iran has failed and that Iran is successfully executing a long-term plan to reshape the region).Key points discussed include:
Cooke is full of crap, which is why he can only get published on 3rd tier internet properties and no one in the first tier media ever quotes him or invites him on their shows.
“First tier” media is controlled by Zionists and the intelligence community. If they were actual journalists they’d be documenting the effects of Iranian strikes within Israel.
Don’t YOU have special sources that could document these so-called strikes? I believe they are mostly shrapnel left-overs. I don’t believe that they managed any direct hits on anything of military or financial or political importance.
Prove me wrong.
No. YOU are full of crap, he is coŕrect.
1st tier media = lying propaganda organ
That is rich coming from a Trumper. Trump’s entire schtick is how the MSM doesn’t treat him fair.
What we don’t know is the power each nation’s populace has over its war policy. We know that there are many Anti-American anti-imperialist folks, including here in the USA, who want the people to force a stop to this war. Can they? And how soon? As for Iran, there is substantial evidence that they don’t support their leadership, but unknown if they can force their rulers to stop the war or impede their conduct of the war.
The most coherent view of the war comes from those Anti-American anti-imperialist folks. That America can’t win the war, and should be defeated. The harder the defeat the better. – At the moment we don’t need anything from Iran and could simply stop attacking Iran. Iran would then be free to impose whatever peace they can on the region. The Strait of Hormuz would become an Iranian tollgate, closed to the ships of some nations. Strong odds that American and Israeli military accords with the Gulf States come undone. Good odds that Iran will do no ceasefire with Israel and the missiles will keep dropping on Israel in perpetuity, or Israel’s utter defeat. Fair odds that other nations (Europe, USA) force Israel to stop attacks on Gaza and Lebanon Hezbollah. With no need for “strategic ambiguity”, all ambiguity resolved, Iran will openly pursue all its regime goals until some limit is reached. We are back to the parlor game = Who will use a nuclear weapon next, and against who?
In the US, there is substantial evidence that the country does not support the leadership, but unknown if they can force their ruler to stop the war or impede their conduct of the war
BREAKING> Washington – POTUS Donald J.Trump – “Our genius secret strategy to subdue Iran by obliterating the global economy has worked perfectly! The Iranian’s will have no choice to surrender now.”
Is Iran’s supposed enriched uranium part of the Obama deal, or a phony MacGuffin, or what?
Anyway, it’s odd that the subject doesn’t seem to be mentioned very often, either here or elsewhere.
The limits on enrichment under JCPOA were kept until Trump cancelled the agreement. The enrichment is necessary for medical applications and Iran has nuclear power plants. Iran has had this capability since Americans supplied them with it in 1967.
Excellent comment
How do you know? Iran had not fully disclosed earlier weapons-related research sites. Military sites like Fordow and Natanz were off limits to inspections.
The world is facing an energy shortage. Meanwhile the US will pay TotalEnergies $1 billion in taxpayer money to NOT build a wind farm off the coast of New York and N Carolina.
Hilarious!
WTI is above $102 per barrel and rising… Who does Trump work for?
Trump has always worked for Trump.
Though many think he is being blackmailed by Russia, Israel, or someone else.
Very little that he does makes any sense. Which leads me to believe he isn’t being controlled by anyone.
He’s just a f*cking moron.
Not in my backyard, bud.
For all you armchair generals and military strategists, here is some REAL analysis that everyone can profit from:
Nothing new in that analysis that I haven’t seen already. Pretty much confirms my investment plans are appropriate. Oil stocks and cash.
nor nothing new on that site that I have not seen NGA west is down the street from me Dined with a few of them on Washington Ave Good conversation Im with you regarding oil stocks and cash!
In addition this area of the country has taken in numerous Afghan Syrian Iraqi Iranian refugees so its a great resource to talk to REAL people about their REAL experiences and opinions.And their ongoing connections to people ‘back home’ Had a good laugh when someone commented “they will be eager to throw down their arms and jump sides” Oh ya ? If it was only that easy. Sounded like a 19century British colonizer trying to sway the whitey folks back on the isles LOL Shout out to my friends at Medina grill on Washington!
You peaked my interest at profits but then lost it with “zerohedge.”
You are awarded a turkey comment award!
Keep your head buried in the sand ostrich. All your problems will disappear!
Keep clutching Tchir’s jock, you might make him some money off yourself.
Peaked or piqued?
Meh, I’ll take the way over on how long the Strait remains under Iran’s control. The market is not even close to being positioned with that expectation.
Peter Tchir is a ZIRP monkey, he’s probably more dovish than Steven Miran. Let’s just say his blade needs a good sharpening.
“For all you armchair generals and military strategists, here is some REAL analysis that everyone can profit from:”
And you quote a guy who admits off the bat that he is not a military strategist.
This has to be trolling.
You should have read further! Then you would have seen the section about all the experts in his company that he has consulted.
Apparently, Trump will “allow” the Russian oil tanker to supply Cuba with oil.
He has no choice no that he screwed the pooch. The sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil are off because of his own stupidity!
And I was looking forward to buying a sweet villa on the water there and smoking Cohiba’s and sipping 50 year old cask aged bourbon in my elder years…
Here we go TACO Tuesday doing what he does better….Cave in to the Russians.
but lets talk real here (navy air family here) You want to ‘win’ these new wars?
this is whats coming
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2ZeZXQAtGQ
Please elaborate.
The rebellion in Iran is the real reason why Trump attacked when he did. Who takes up this mantle is fundamental to the real US escape plan what we can expect as the outcome of this adventurism.
My sources (Iranian Youtubers) say that as the US has moved from bombing IRGC leaders, offices and sanctuaries, to protecting the gulf, the Persian rebellion is starting back up.
These are mostly ex-Muslim atheists or even christian converts. I don’t know what radical group or leader is among them, but if you do Mish, I am interested to hear who.
my sources ask me why Trump is saying he will bomb Iran for fun.
my sources ask me why there is no safe places for them to flee too.
my sources ask me why we bombed the homes of 2 anti regime leaders.
my sources want to know who is going to replace the current regime? if its the Shah, why aren’t we supporting him?
my sources would like to know if Donald Trump has a grasp on reality.
my sources want to know why they are being bombed again. the 12 day war wasnt done for thier freedom anymore than this war. if you want to negotiate, then negotiate.
my sources want to know why the west keeps making their lives harder while offering nothing but bullshit and platitudes.
my sources tell me once we bomb the civilian infrastructure what little goodwill the Iranian people.have for Trump killing the right people will be gone.
You need to get better sources if all they do is ask questions.
beats the ‘sources’ that only exist in your head.
Cant find the original video because I’m on my phone. But here’s one I came across. (Although I know Nothing about this youtuber, but I don’t have the Time or care to do a deep dive)
https://youtu.be/6F8VBJAGZZQ?t=287&si=e9fG9PHM05Q-tRyZ
If the rebellion was the cause for bombing than he was way too late… The resistance had been mowed down in the streets long before the first bomb dropped. He left them hanging after promising help and they died by the hundreds.
Also everybody with two brain cells to rub together knows he started when he did because Israel said “go.”
A lot of the people mowed down were mowed down BY “the resistance” who’d been armed by CIA and Mossad. What started as an organic protest against currency devaluation (which we engineered) was commandeered by agents provocateur – which is how the CIA always does its color revolutions. This time it was quashed – with an order of magnitude fewer deaths than reported in western media.
Pretty big claim. Care to back it up?
Good Lord, anyone who’s been paying attention the last two months knows that. How do you think the “resistance” got the 10,000 starlink terminals that they were using after the government shut down the internet? Smuggled to them by the CIA and Mossad – anlong with weapons and ammunition. Over two hundred Iranian policemen were among the dead. The total deaths were ~ 3,000 and western media just kept inflating the number to 30,000 or even higher.
Umm, then it should be an easy claim to support.
Start here https://www.jns.org/u.s.-news/us-smuggled-starlink-terminals-to-aid-iran-protesters-report
Ok. That’s the starlink which sounds great. Good for them.
What about the claim that the rebels are worse than the IRGC?
That’s rich, coming from you.
Really? I usually back up my claims when asked.
Do you?
None of that dispels the rebellion as the instigating event
We just started bombing power plants. That should win us lots of friends.
We’d been warned against doing that. Iran’s biggest problem is deciding which of the many available vital targets to pick from. I’m sure they’ll surprise us.
Link?
Fake news. Not seeing this on the news. Get better sources. Solve many of your problems!
“the news”. LOL
“My sources”…
Machiavelli taught us not to listen to the stories told by exiles.
Even the CIA has admitted that the uprising you crave isn’t going to happen.
I’m interested to hear that. Please share
Every time I see another clueless, clickbait “analysis” of this war, I can’t wait until the AI takeover. Enough of the armchair generals, the virtue-signalers and the keyboard commandos! You’re not helping the situation. In fact, I believe that you are only making everything worse.
Spreading rumors, whining about strategy you don’t understand and questioning decisions in real time isn’t brave, it’s reckless. It puts our troops and allies in danger and turns public discourse into a dumpster fire of stupidity. It’s the pure personification of enshitification!
Meanwhile, what of the Iranian people under actual fire? They can’t speak. The Iranian regime cut the internet, shut down the news and shoots anyone who dares raise dissent. And here you are, safe on your couches, watching every blow-up tweet and Substack take like it’s gospel. Sheese!
Newsflash: the war is not a reality show. Professionals know what they’re doing. Critique after the fact if you must, but while the battle rages, everyone should hold their tongues (virtual or real) and let the experts fight. That is what they get paid to do Your uninformed opinions only serve to embarrass yourselves and in the big picture, mean nothing.
The professionals know what they are doing? The US is losing critical hardware and lives in a war they cannot win.
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2038063581070029135
Sure some of the military do know what they are doing but their political masters don’t. Congress hasn’t called for this war but the clown show in the White House continues.
WHY would you want Congress to make any decision? We have seen over the past years how poorly qualified in virtually everything, except perhaps insider trading, the majority of these elected representative are.
We have a deep bench of hardware paid for by our $trillion DOW budget. One should expect to lose resources and people in warfare.
If we go into Iran on foot, which we should to at least retrie the enriched uranium that Iran holds, then we can expect to lose more hardware and people. This is one of the possibilities soldiers volunteered for when they signed on the dotted line!
Yeah, who needs a Constitution, everyone knows that Trump is incredibly well-informed after a two minute sizzle reel…
Looks like professionals took care of this AWACS.
Oh,I guess that would be… Iranian professionals!
https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1s71jpc/e3_awacs_at_prince_sultan_air_base_in_saudi_arabia/
We have more.
Mish’s post is mostly just direct quotes from the US president, who clearly does NOT know what he is doing.
They told us the experts knew what they were doing in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, too. You still falling for that?
THANK YOU! Again tell the families/friends of the 200 Marines killed about Military Professionals! https://www.marines.mil/News/Marines-TV/videoid/634642/dvpTag/Beirut/
That’s part of being in the military boy.
Everyone should understand that Trump is the front man. He says “Make it so” but leaves the details to every one else.
As I have posted before, until/if we learn to fight war like it was fought centuries in the past, where no quarter is given and prisoners are not generally taken, then it will be difficult to win any war.
At this juncture, we should concentrate, with Israel, on getting possession of the enriched uranium and removing it from the country. If we can destroy any centrifuges and other devices that would help the Regime restart their uranium enrichment program, then we should do so.
If the Iranian opposition is unable to use the current situation to take control of the government, then that is on them.
.
We lost to the Taliban. Don’t give me this shit about “just leave it to the professionals”.
Most likely with similar contributions from the likes of yourself, always whining, always second guessing, always professing to know better than others. I hope you are an icel and don’t have any kids or a SO. They would surely think you insufferable.
Mish has baten the horse to a bloody pulp proving that Trump statements are inconsistent. It’s a waste of time and bits to keep pointing out the inconsistencies since it has no effect on anyone. Mish has achieved nothing in all the similar posts he has made over the past months, whether it relates to Iran, ICE, illegals, the Fed, etc., etc.
“Amateurs study tactics; professionals study logistics.”
― Eric Flint and Robert E. Waters
Napoleon I thought
Quoting Trump is spreading rumors? Your entire second paragraph is what Trump has done, not what discussing and/or debating this feckless war has done. We can debate all we want and it doesn’t affect what happens on the ground or air in the Middle East. Yes the professionals know what they are doing but Trump got rid of them. And even the professionals will charge headlong into battle if the Commander in Chief yells “Charge!”.
Absolutely. Just look at how well the professionals handled COVID-19.
You are mixing up military professional with politicians, who are just normal, mostly average IQ people with a gift of gab.
The DNI and chairman of the Joint chiefs told Trump not to start this war.
And other professionals disagreed. Who are you going to choose to believe? Maybe they should dialed you up?
I agree with you on this topic. We have knowing what’s real and what’s not. Why guess.
“Spreading rumors, whining about strategy you don’t understand and questioning decisions in real time isn’t brave, it’s reckless”
Wow, reality must finally be setting in for you to be this upset. It won’t be long before the whole world hates the US and Israel for causing a global depression. That’s the reality we’re all headed to whether we like it or not.
The truth shall set you free.
He can’t handle the truth.
Everything doesn’t revolve around the state of the economy.
Ask the citizens of Iran how they feel about their economy. The government just issued a 10 million Rial note. Worth about US$7! 😄
No, eff you. I’ll speak my mind.
You have no mind to speak of.
From phantom menace “You were right about one thing, Master. The negotiations were short.”
And i thought the GWOT (Global War on Terror) and GFC (Global Financial Crisis) were historic, self-inflicted blunders. We are on a new level of toxic reality-abandonment: from an imperfect situation to one guy’s existential casino bet. I’m trying to think of a suitable “GLOBAL ___” acronym. Ideas?
Hmmm — GGLS (Global Great Leap Sh*tward), GWTOOB (Global War Targeting Our Own Balls) ….
Please use the correct acronym: TWAT – The war against terrorism.
or Trumps War Against Terrorism
Except Trump *is* the terrorist.
A terrorist with an army.
TWAT ~ Trumps War of Anglo Terrorism?
there’s the winner
Perhaps we could have a global war on stupidity? It would be terrible. Trump could lead it. I’d hate to see New York afterwards.
A constitutional amendment needs to be passed that excludes anyone over 60 run for president. He is a narcisist and maybe worse. Those mental illnesses tend to worsen with dimentia. He is exhibiting signs of dimentia. Coming from someone who had to care for 2 mentally ill parents who had dementia
Let’s be fair, Hegseth is under 60. Would you want him running any kind of organization of consequence? At the same time, I have known 80 year olds that are sharp, clueful and humane.
2,000 point down day on the Dow….INCOMING
Only 300 so far… Fasten your seatbelts!
Got VIX?
Iran.
How could Iran negotiate? With who?
Nothing Trump or his cronies (Steve/Jared) say even makes sense.
They lie at every turn. Not a single word of truth.
All words are a trick in their mind to have leverage on the gullible.
Short of a change in regime and Legislation ratified by the Senate forbidding aggression towards Iran (specified in excruciating detail: sanctions, interference, media & electoral interference, acts of war), what basis is there for any talking?
And even then, the US does not believe in international law, the UN Charter, honor, or basically anything. Even then there isn’t any way to actually talk.
Iran would need to see concrete actions:
Losers don’t get to negotiate anything. You should well know this by now.
BiBi’s simultaneously fighting in Gaza, Iran and Lebanon. His peanut butter is getting spread pretty thin!
His self proclaimed grandeur and omnipotence is likely to be tested. Sad for his people who could have been living peacefully within the border established under the Balfour Declaration. The bill for war reparations has come due in the past and Weimar is just one example.
Unfortunately, it’s our peanut butter he’s spreading, and we can produce a lot of it, so long as we have a blackmailed President and a bribed Congress, that is.
And making gains for the future of Israel on all fronts.
The Democrats will be left to clean up the mess, like usual, and the mouth breathers who caused all this will loudly criticize them the whole time. “Lol we shit all over ourselves and the god damn Democrats aren’t cleaning up our shit right!”
It would be far better to let Iran develop nuclear weapons so it can control the Strait of Hormuz and likely oil and gas production by all Gulf Arab countries. We could negotiate a payment to allow any ships with American oil to pass, or just rely on non-Gulf sources plus our own, which is the largest in the world. Prices would still go up because US oil prices float with global prices. This would greatly enrich Iran and Russia, both large oil exporters. Sounds like a plan that would lead to peace and prosperity for all.
The current path we are on leads to global economic collapse, followed by global depression and maybe nuclear war.
You should have listened.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRndMiVIB-w
I guess that throws a wrench in your “exit” plans! 😁
Not at all, it makes it even more prudent to exercise. Everything is right on schedule and I have plenty of places to go in Asia, Latin America and Europe. That’s what’s cool about making massive profits, it buys options.
Both are very peaceful countries. Everyone knows this.
The the flying F said that.
4-Point Recap for the Mindless
1) Obama made a deal that our top general and Sec of Defense said Iran was honoring
2) Trump tor the deal up
3) Diplomats said Trump had a similar offer on the table 3 days before the war
4) Against the advice of top military experts Trump went to war
Now what the H do you not understand about that?
As I understood it at the time, the Iran “deal” that Obama fudged together was just to help him win re-election. No sensible person thought that it would end Persian ambitions.
Anyone can say that the military advised this or that. Trump was the decision-maker, and he is pretty good at that.
I don’t really like seeing the whole world turned into a horrible, decadent American society any more than the Persians do, but at the same time there is no denying that the Middle East has long been a festering sore. If the Moslems and the Jews can’t live in peace, and we won’t evacuate the Jews, then we or somebody has to impose a peace. This is what Trump has chosen to do.
So what do you know that Trump’s generals and his own CIA head do not?
What Fox News told him.
We have a winner!
lets talk about the real deal maker 2 months from now see what you have left to eat moron….
…and you understood that the immigrants were eating our pets, and that school kids were pooping in litter boxes, and that invermectin cured covid.
Soon you will understand even more moronic crap that has no connection to reality.
The deal Iran was “honoring” was simply a delay in developing nuclear weapons; the JCPOA expired by its terms around now. The inspection regime was flawed because no inspections were allowed at military facilities, such as Fordow and Natanz, the very sites where the nuclear development was ongoing. Iran was enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels almost immediately and never stopped. The IAEA confirmed this recently, stating Iran has enough enriched material to produce 10 nuclear bombs, and could produce far more dirty bombs if that were its desire. And why not, Iran’s proxy armies, Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad would love nothing better than to get their hands on dirty bombs,
There was no deal on the table, Witkoff said the Iranians told him they were not going to give up via diplomacy what the USA could not get via war. Basically, Iran stated their race to nuclear capability would continue unabated.
But you think Iran’s development of nuclear weapons is not a problem. It is only a coincidence that they are blocking the Straight of Hormuz and attacking the Gulf Arab energy infrastructure. This would never happen once Iran achieved nuclear capacity.
Kind of looks like Trump is reacting, not acting …
The chief executive has no executive function.
Why do we the people continue this unnecessary war? It is not in our best interest imho. It only continues because we the people have no control over our criminal government. Republic of the sedated placated uninterested obese murderers. Watch another movie nothing to see here
It is/was necessary and maybe your issue is that you have no clue what you are writing about.
How’s your Kool-Aid today? Getting warm? No buyers?
We the people were not asked whether the country should fight this war, the Zionist death cult was.
The IRGC has confirmed the successful shoot-down of a U.S. RQ-21 Blackjack tactical drone in the eastern Strait of Hormuz. This engagement removes a persistent surveillance asset designed specifically for low-altitude maritime and coastal monitoring.
https://nitter.poast.org/iwasnevrhere_/status/2038310973774123036#m
The RQ-21A Blackjack is designed to support the U.S. Marine Corps by providing forward reconnaissance. A Blackjack system is composed of five air vehicles and two ground control systems.
Trump is Literally Looking at Some > 2 + MILLION Iranian Forces
IRAN
Active-Duty Forces —– Army + IRGC + Reserves + Basij + Others —–
Total active personnel: Approximately 580,000–610,000.
Regular Army (Artesh): ~350,000–420,000 (includes ground forces, with conscripts making up a large portion).
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC): ~125,000–190,000 (elite, more ideological; includes ground, naval, aerospace, and Quds Force elements).
Other branches (Air Force, Navy, Air Defense, etc.): ~50,000–70,000 combined.
These are full-time, uniformed forces with varying levels of training and equipment.
===================================
Reserves and Basij
Reserves: Officially ~350,000 trained reservists (former active-duty personnel who can be recalled).
The Basij
is a volunteer/reserve force that can theoretically draw from millions of reservists and civilians in a “total defense” scenario
The Basij is not a professional army—it’s more like a large, ideologically driven militia network. In wartime, it would handle rear-area defense, urban fighting, guerrilla harassment, and supplementing regular forces. Equipment is often basic (small arms, RPGs, light vehicles), though some units have better integration with IRGC.
Estimates for the Basij vary widely:
Claimed membership: Up to 12.6 million (including women and non-combat roles, per IISS).
Combat-capable/active core: Often cited as 400,000–600,000 (U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency and IISS figures).
In a full mobilization (“total defense”): Potentially millions of civilians with basic training, light arms, or even improvised weapons. Some older estimates go as high as several million in theory
=====================================
Southern Iraqi tribes in Nasiriyah province have publicly declared support for Iran, pledging to resist and join Iran in any US ground invasion
Iran-aligned militias overall: These groups (many with strong southern Iraqi roots) have historically claimed tens of thousands of fighters. Estimates range from 100,000+
=======================================
. THAT DOES NOT INCLUDE YEMEN HEZBOLLAH ETC.
You are also forgetting the Shia concept of sacrifice.
This alone will double if not triple the numbers mentioned above.
The large majority of Iranian forces would throw down their weapons and switch sides if they felt able to do so w/o risking their lives or those of their families.
PAY ATTENTION!
Trump should go himself. Surely seeing the man who murdered their children that would inspire then.
He should send you.
Meanwhile, on the oil front.
Ukraine has attacked the Russian export terminal Ust Luga for the third time in a week, severely damaging Russia’s oil export capabilities, so they cannot take advantage of current high prices.
In the US, the number of oil wells being drilled continues to decline. Oil production has also declined for 5 weeks in a row. Producers are not interested in expanding production until they are certain that prices will remain high for a long time.
Ukraine has attacked the Russian export terminal Ust Luga for the third time in a week, severely damaging Russia’s oil export capabilities, so they cannot take advantage of current high prices.
====
ahahha!!
so now it is =severely damaging Russia’s oil export capabilities=!
what happened to 40% of export potential? it was just couple days ago.
you printed same bulls11hit
=========
buddy , despite all this hot bullsh11it nothing will change !
Ukraine is FUC11KED AS COUNTRY, WILL BE FUCK11ED AS COUNTRY
AND EVENTUALLY THIS YEAR, IN TWO YEARS, OR 5 years will cease to exist
it is over!!!!!!!
The weed must be really good where you live.
Interesting response. I was commenting about real reported strikes that Russia has confirmed both this week and last week. Russia has warned that they may impose force majeure on oil exports. They have already cut off fuel exports.
My interest here is the continued interruption of Russian oil exports and their effect on global oil supplies.
Apparently, you are only interested in being a dumb f*ck.
Looks like more profitgasms this week. I’ve got puts for the downside and selling calls on the upside.
Let’s see how many things go kaboom this week.
I keep selling portions of my oil stock holdings each week and raising cash. Yet the cash portion as a percentage of my portfolio remains at 50% because the remaining oil stocks keep increasing in value.
Still holding a lot of stocks because this appears to be turning into a lengthy conflict. Oil prices should continue higher.
My bigger concern at this point is governments instituting windfall profits taxes on oil companies. That could knock them down.
If the companies used the cash to buy back stocks rather than pay dividends would it show up as a profit that could be taxed?
Buybacks are capital transactions that do not affect corporate profits or taxes.
However, in the US there js a 1% excise tax on buybacks. In Canada it is a 2% excise tax on buybacks.
Dividends are not deductible expenses either and do not lower corporate taxes. They are paid after taxes.
Thank you.
You’re welcome!
THIS government?
Yes. Both the US and Canada. Governments love new income sources. Just liike tariffs.
Windfall profit taxes have been implemented before…
Yep. If oil keeps rising, and company profits start showing up in the headlines, then it’s almost a certainty.
It could be they expect prices not to remain high for long so they see no reason to invest.
Their investment time frames are much longer than a month. And they have been burned before with whipsawing prices, so they are demonstrating an abundance of caution.
However, if the war continues, and supply disruptions persist, I expect them to eventually drill more.
In the meantime, their caution will simply exacerbate the global supply problem, resulting in higher prices and greater profits. They are in a win-win position.
Why undercut a massively profitable market?
They will increase production eventually, once they are convinced that prices will remain high for a long time.
Russia’s tax system is such that this does not have an effect.There is a very good article in one of the following:-
rt.com
news-pravda.com
topwar.ru
In fact,Russia’s oil revenue has been very high in March 2026,still a day to go.
Why don’t we just revisit the Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, etc playbooks and build on that success? Lol. Oh wait, this time is different! /s
The mere fact that global economies are about to implode because of Iran’s ability to close the strait tells you everything you need to know about who holds the cards.
If things get ugly in Asia, will China pull the plug on rare earths and chips? Will they take on Taiwan while everyone is distracted? If so where will US get materials to replenish and reload?
If Japan implodes, who is going to buy US debt?
But the greatest disadvantage US has is brain dead geezer leadership running the circus.
Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™
We would have been much better off under Kamala, right?
/Sarc
Yes but don’t take my word for it. Listen to the President tell it to you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRndMiVIB-w
The Iranians wouldn’t have been able to figure out she was saying. Nobody can.
You’re starting to catch on…
Obviously, despite her being a poor Presidential prospect. No Iran war, no inflation by tariff, no war on small businesses by tariff, no murdering your own citizens, no Doge stupidity, no silly ballroom. Etc etc
Sarchasm, apparently? A chasm between what was implied and what was inferred? The Epstein class purposely made sure we only had 2 incredibly bad choices.
Here’s a pretty easy prediction:
Should we decide to do something utterly moronic like take Kargh Island, and we end up losing hundreds or God forbid thousands of soldiers during the initial operations, that will put us on a 20 year or more occupation that will ultimately result in the deaths of tens of thousands of US soldiers (at a minimum) and millions of Iranians.
————
PS — I shouldn’t even know that Kargh Island exists, much less be able to now spell it correctly on the first go…yet here we are
Per the War Powers Act, Congress has until April 29th to declare war on Iran or all hostilities by the US must end.
They’ll bend over again. It’s their job now.
War On Iran: Exorbitant Munition Spending + Lack Of Success = Iran Is Winning
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/03/war-on-iran-exorbitant-munition-spending-lack-of-success-iran-is-winning.html
Don’t tell the cult morons here that Iran has the upper hand in this war. The cult morons think the US is winning and achieving its goals.
I’m sure the people of Iran will be happy to hear that under your analysis, they can look forward to further decaders of being oppressed, tortured, repressed and denied basic freedoms.
When you are shaving and looking in your mirror tomorrow morning, repeat the following:
“I AM AN IDIOT!”
And right on cue, here is Jojo, one of the cult morons.
Tell me how the US is winning Jojo.
Iran can no longer threaten us with a nuclear bomb. Therefore we win and they lose. D’on.
Why does it matter what they hear? Will it affect the outcome?
John Mearsheimer: “Iran Holds All the Cards” – The Strategic Defeat of the U.S.
He said the same thing about Russia.
And he’s right.
“Guess what? 10,000 troop would not be enough. Desert Storm took 700,000 troops against a much smaller and weaker Iraq with no drones.”
And don’t forget that the US could deploy those hundreds of thousands of troops right next to Kuwait in Saudi Arabia. The US Navy sailed right up the Strait of Hormuz loaded with troops, equipment, fuel and supplies over a period of months. It had the time to put a fully operational army on the ground before the attack.
That’s not possible with Iran. They will need to do it Normandy style. Build a 10,000 ship naval armada to carry all the men and equipment, and attack somewhere along the Iran’s border with the Indian Ocean. Then march a thousand miles inland through the deserts to Tehran. We’ll need to import lots of Mexicans to build those ships!
Will Mexico pay for them too?
Eveyone knows the real reason for this war, hell, even Donald Trump knows the real reason but they cannot say it out loud – Netanyahu has his fist up Trump’s ass like a spck puppet. Trump has less authority than a marionette, than BiBi’s dog.
Bibi has the videos of Trump with those 13 year old girls. Maybe a few little boys too.
That wouldn’t surprise me. Raping little girls is OK with MAGATS, but little boys would probably be over the line.
Iran probably has the best hand because they have been planning for decades for attacks from Israel and the other Middle East Countries loyal to America . Iran has many missle launchers spread over a massive area of mountains. These missles have done massive damage to infrastructure in the Countries …loyal to America. Iran can play a Long game and sense the West cannot handle the Debt and Financial Market turmoil of a Long Game. Time will Tell but it seems Iran has been planning for the ultimate Bluff.
decades? How about hundreds of years
https://a.co/d/0ah63786
Who here read Whitney Webb’s reporting about who controls Oceania digital infrastructure security?
Who here remembers Wikileaks undermining confidence in Oceania attribution of cyber attacks?
The old head of security at Airstrip One is saying that Eurasia is winning. Should we believe him? Of course we must! It is our duty to Big Brother.
I agree with about everything here except “Iran is already in the hands of a more radical group.” ‘Radical’ when it applies as a label to people suggests they are extremists on the fringe of civilization. It appears to me that Iran continues to behave in a manner consistent with logical leadership. They appear to be following a calculated plan to apply pressure to maximum effect. They also appear to have exercised restraint in not triggering mass casualty events, even to U.S. military installations (i.e. focusing on high-value radars and aircraft). This is in contrast to the civilian targeting we’ve witnessed on the other side. I think this will shift dramatically if U.S. launches a ground invasion. The gloves will come off and we could see hundreds of deaths per day.
But there are videos of people in Iran marching and saying “death to America”! Sure, most are from the late 1970s, but people don’t change. What did we ever do to them?
Don’t go there before you read up on history of Iran starting with CIA involvement in the 50’s. After what has happened since then, they can say whatever they want.
Meatbags are useless without those toys.
When a 400,000,000 “present” of a plane is given as a sweetener above board and then the simple unspoken request is to “Protect” us from our enemies – one first thinks Israel, but the real fear is Iran and its Shia leaders will eventually figure out how to make a nuke – and use it against Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the other smaller practically defenseless Arab states. How to play an oil shock is not an old investment strategy – I am sure that all the insiders have made and will make lots of capital. I would also imagine that every US envoy to Arabia has gotten the red carpet rolled out for them and many ‘special’ favors granted them that even epstein wasn’t in a position to grant.
This is actually a Sunni vs. Shia war. The Gulf states want stability to mine and sell the oil. The “war” increasing the price of oil will be an offset (I have not run the numbers) to the reduced production so the tiny fraction of Arabia’s population may have to scale back some grandiose projects – but they will not suffer like the Sunni on the street will. Win for Arabian states. Loss for Asia and the World’s consumer class and all the poor of Arabia. That’s OK though – they will be fed the enemy propaganda that it’s all Israel. First the US middle class pay the tariffs, now we pay the higher oil prices. Soon, the cost of energy – which we all know is rolled into every product and service that is bought and sold.
Later we will pay the higher debt costs on 500 Billion or so dollars – a potential real cost of this war (not including future interest). No longer “Our Dollar Your Problem” its “Our Dollar Our Problem”
Finally the end (or significant reduction) of Social Security will come earlier and many in the US will suffer due us protecting the Oil producing states and their elite and infrastructure. Most likely massive slave reparation payments will precede our collapse. May need to relocate to the future great independent state of Texas!
I think the plan is to have the US consumer give back the last 70 years of prosperity.
Inflation from this event will take most American’s lifetime of saving value away from them a lot faster then if it had not happened.
We are the pawns of Arabia for the Petro-dollar. Israel is just an opportunist creating short to mid term “security” at the cost of long term peace. I honestly don’t expect Israel to survive the next 100 years.
Most of you know this already but the history of Aramco’s US ownership began in 1933 when the Standard Oil Company of California (SoCal, now Chevron) won a concession to explore for oil in Saudi Arabia, forming the California Arabian Standard Oil Company (CASOC). The company was renamed Arabian American Oil Company (Aramco) in 1944 and was owned by a consortium of major US oil firms: SoCal, Texaco (joined 1936), Standard Oil of New Jersey (Exxon), and Socony-Vacuum (Mobil). Energy is power, power is control, control is profit.
Future administrations will import displaced Arabs for ‘humanitarian’ reasons-they will rise to power and take political positions and use our military any way they see fit – isn’t now obvious that the government of the people for the people by the people is nothing but “noble lie.” There are already stirrings around the world looking at ‘radical Christians’ as a potential target. Don’t think that is an accident – bags of money can cause people to do things that seem out of place to the observer.
https://dailydeclaration.org.au/2026/02/18/nz-christians-war-games/
Do you want this here in the US?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g4x2zyer2o
Israel will be left to fend for itself. If I were Israel; I’d be negotiating with the rest of Arabia to sell them their country and simultaneously looking to buy somewhere else that needs the capital – say Argentina – but that may be like Pablo Escobar offering to pay off Colombia’s external debt – possible – but not practical.
Neighbor’s kid has been deployed; the whole family knows why they are really going – protect Oil Infrastructure and keep the Arab Elite from losing sleep at night. The youth of the US as the World’s police pay the ultimate price.
Starmer was the smart one to keep the young English kids out of a war that has no justification but is going to cost the US.
Well, back to the pop corn on this sh*t show – in Las Vegas or NY you can have 24k gold sprinkled on it. Makes it a Golden S-Show.
Update on Iran, from one Iranians phone conversation with family:
civil services are still up and running
hospitals, stores, electricity are available, at least in Tehran.
The South is getting hammered hard, but civil infrastructure mostly intact.
No place is safe. there was very little activity in North East Iran earlier but the bombing has really intensified since late last week.
confusion and fear as the what happens next.
Epstein & Co.
Iran has every single factor going for it that I could dream of for a nightmare wargame. We had a shot at getting their population to overthrow the IRGC and promptly blew the golden goose up along with any moderate replacements. Why? Because Israel is purposely trying to sink us into a war we cannot run. If Iran still exists by the end they don’t win, so they are willing to destroy us to get that.
Israel is willing to fight until the last American
I would say too soon to tell. But that should tell you something right there. it wasnt won in the 1st hour.
Times of Israel is reporting that the USA is planning on moving some of our Gulf bases to Israel, which by shear coincidence coincides with one of the Iranian demands.
My opinion is that we dont have the forces involved to accomplish regime change or to force the concessions on Iran, nuclear enrichment ends and missile development abandonment, that are part of our 15 points.
unfortunately it looks to be that it will be decided on the battlefield.
Moving U.S. bases to Israel does not meet Iranian demands. U.S. forces will be expelled completely from the Middle East or destroyed.
I am interested to know if the Gulf countries asked us to close the bases or if we just gave them up.
I would also like to know the status of our bases in Iraq. I assume they are next on the list to be abandoned. they probably have already been written off.
Finally, what is happening on the ground in Lebanon. Northern Israel is getting hit much harder then the rest because of the activity from Lebanon. Does the IDF have enough forces to.take and occupy the land.
the idf was in crisis mode before this war started. there army is full.of part time soldiers and our needed for their economy.
I imagine it’s complicated re: the exact base situation, but hearing of troops “working remotely” (in a warzone!) speaks to how bad it is. There were reports of some troops being moved off base in anticipation of attacks, but they wouldn’t completely abandon complexes with high-value (essential) radar systems.
I’ve also seen reports that U.S. troops have left Iraq, but that’s complicated by pre-announced agreements to drawdown and hand over control to Iraqi authorities.
Answer: none of the above.
Israel has the upper hand because it is in complete control of the U.S.
The U.S. will do whatever Israel orders it to do. So Israel is the one with the upper hand in this war.
Incorrect. If this war remains conventional and those missiles/drones keep coming in (as I expect), Israel will be gradually stripped of everything that allowed it to function as a high-tech, modern state – industrial, financial, etc. Millions moved to Israel for a promise which will never be fulfilled, and they will leave.
If on the other hand it goes nuclear with strikes on Tehran, Israel will be marked for death, destroyed by a couple of nukes, possibly within weeks. I’d give it a year at most, and expect mass exodus (except for the extreme poor and morons who think it won’t happen)
Their only hope for survival as a country is to capitulate, give up nuclear weapons, hand over the war criminals, and gradually rebuild under a new security arrangement.
What about Iran? They will undoubtedly continue to suffer until the war concludes and sanctions are lifted. But they are a determined people, who did not come there for false promises. They also have support from China and Russia and that will be unwavering.
That won’t work…there would be nobody left.
Israel is banking on its American thug stifling any protest once Israel goes nuclear.
And why not? Israel is already committing a daylight genocide and nobody dares raise a peep, lest Israel sic its dog on them.
Israel has long had nukes. Are you wrong, or saying something else?
I agree Israeli/neocon arrogance is startling. But human nature is what it is.. I think Americans do have some independent spirit left, have lots of armaments, and I see no reason for violence to be contained once people have a greater fear for their lives (for what a nuclear conflict would mean)