Trump calmed the stock and bond markets for now. The key issues still remain.
In two days the 30-year long bond yield jumped 66.8 basis point. That’s pretty much a crash. And the equity market futures were crashing as well.
This was largely in response to Trump’s tariffs and the retaliation by China to go toe-to-toe with Trump.
Trumped Waved the White Flag
Amid the turmoil, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent convinced Trump to do a 90-day pause.
The stock and bond markets instantly reversed and the Dow shot up nearly 3,000 points, about 7.8 percent. The Nasdaq rose 1,857 points up 12.2 percent, and the S&P 500 rose 474 points up 9.5 percent.
Administration Lie of the Day
The nonsense of the day is this was all planned.
I discussed the 5D chess idea in Administration Lie of the Day: “Trump Goaded China into a Bad Position”
Bessent: “This was driven by the President’s strategy. He and I had a long talk on Sunday and this was his strategy all along. And you might even say that he goaded China into a bad position. It wasn’t a hard message. Don’t retaliate and things will turn out well.”
Treasury Secretary Bessent is a bad liar. Clowns portray it as 5D chess.
Look, you don’t plan to crash the stock and bond markets as some sort of chess game.
Bessent convinced Trump to call off tariff madness for 90 days.
Beautiful Bond Market
Fox News reports Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent denies that tariff pause is due to market declines
“It is just a processing problem,” Bessent said when asked if the market whiplash was a catalyst for the pause. “Each one of these solutions is going to be bespoke. It is going to take some time, and President Trump wants to be personally involved, so that’s why we are hitting the 90-day pause.”
Meanwhile, Bessent questioned claims from reporters that the bond market was “cratering” and said the information in front of him did not indicate as much. Trump, who also fielded questions Wednesday about the market volatility following his tariffs, similarly described the current bond market as “beautiful.”
The Lies and Spin Continue
- It is just a processing problem.
- The bond market is beautiful
Competing Theories
- Trump concocts ridiculous definition of “reciprocal” to goad China into retaliating. Socks and bonds crashed in response. This is a 5D chess planned idea.
- Trump capitulated with a 90-day pause reacting to the plunge in stock and bond markets.
Fact check: Trump “I was watching the bond market. The bond market is very tricky. I was watching it. But if you look at it now, it’s… it’s beautiful. But, yeah, I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy.”
Trump’s Contradictory Claims
- Tariffs will increase revenue enough to balance the budget
- Tariffs will bring manufacturing back to the US
- Tariffs will reduce inflation
- Tariffs will increase exports
Conflicting Economic Madness
Points 1 and 2 conflict. Tariffs cannot simultaneously bring back manufacturing and raise enough revenue to balance the budget.
Points 2 and 3 conflict. Since the US is one of the world’s highest cost producer of goods thanks to unions, tariffs will not reduce inflation.
Points 2 and 4 conflict. Since the US is one of the world’s highest cost producer of goods, and other countries will retaliate, tariffs will not increase exports.
Which point do you want because you don’t get all four. And don’t choose #1 either.
That idea is downright idiotic although you can get some revenue because tariffs are a tax hike.
Role of Hedge Funds
Obviously tariffs played a central role but there’s more to the Bond Market Rout.
“It’s a global deleveraging,” says Dan Ivascyn, chief investment officer at Pimco, the bond powerhouse. “Markets aren’t fans of extreme uncertainty—unless we get clarity about tariffs, and the willingness to negotiate or be more gradual in implementation, people will likely continue to take their money home.”
Typically, when they are worried about the outlook for U.S. growth, they sell stocks and buy Treasurys. Those are seen as safe and dependable investments, while the dollar has offered similar stability.
In recent days, however, investors have sold bonds and the dollar, along with stocks, amid concern about the unpredictable fallout from Trump’s stunning move to upend global trade.
Once bond prices started falling, the move was accelerated by selling from hedge funds, who have become an increasingly important player in the Treasury market, investors and traders said.
One popular hedge-fund trade in recent months has been to bet on a narrowing gap between Treasury yields and rates on interest-rate swaps. That wager was based on the idea that the Trump administration would change regulations to make it easier for banks to hold Treasurys. But it was upended when yields started surging in recent days.
“If these policy moves hold, we are very likely to have a recession, and stocks and credit—including private credit—are still not priced for that scenario,” says Ivascyn of Pimco. “There is some time to pause and negotiate to avoid these near-term outcomes, but the window is closing.”
China Not Dumping
I was watching futures when stocks and bonds were gyrating wildly. In a matter of minutes Dow futures were swing 500 points in each direction. The 30-year long bond gyrations were also massive.
The “China Is Dumping” treasuries theories were running rampant on Twitter.
I explained China dumping was a bad theory, but the volatility was such I was wondering who knew what. Now we know.
Expect to hear some hedge funds were carted out over this action.
Who Knew What When?
Three Reasons Bond Yields Took Off
- The bond market thought Trump’s massive tariffs would be highly inflationary, more like stagflationary actually.
- The Senate passed a budget bill with no cuts. Budget cuts to be announced later. Yeah right.
- In February, the Trump administration announced an 8 percent cut in defense spending. Trump just reversed that to a 12 percent increase. Massive budget deficits are coming.
On top of those fundamentals Hedge funds were blowing up with their bond market bets.
Q: So what’s been fixed?
A: Nothing.
This is all part of Trump’s brilliant play.
Q: How long will the 90-day pause last?
A: Hmmm
Related Posts
April 9, 2025: Trump Capitulates with a 90-Day Pause on Tariffs, DOW Jumps 2,200 Points
Trump has had enough of the stock market decline.
March 12, 2025: Lutnick Says Tariffs Can Eliminate the IRS and Balance the Budget
Lutnick: “We’re going to make the External Revenue Service replace the Internal Revenue Service.”
Bessent saved Trump’s ass.
And now that tariffs on Vietnam are back down to 10 percent, expect to see more “Made in Vietnam” stickers on Chinese goods.
What a 5D clown show.
Meanwhile I await the budget analysis of this: Trump Promises $1 trillion in Defense Spending for Next Year
that was perfectly described economics 101. easy to understand for the novice to chessmaster. bonds, dollar, stocks headed in the same direction is a distinct vote
I think there were 2 main reasons for the reversal. The bond markets were unwinding the basis trade along with possible reversal of the carry trade. Second was with the 90day pause it removed the potential for legal challenges to his authority to impose tariffs. Many potential issues can further derail the markets. One thing I rarely hear is a blowup in the private credit markets. That is bigger than just the GFC with only the mortgage market. At least then there was decent collateral ie real estate to mitigate some losses. In private credit markets, no one knows the true value and risks in these products. Very opaque and I think a big risk event is developing. Also if the carry trades start to unwind it will add a lot of fuel to the fire.
Not even 100 days in and this administration has shit all over themselves 💩
God help us all.
They wallow in their own shit. It’s their natural environment.
Trump is finally doing what he should have, which is confront China. He gets credit for making a bigger deal out of this years ago, when Dems were asleep at the switch (or worse). But that wasn’t his overall idea this time, or his proclamations. He got dragged there by more sensible people. Mistakes are to be expected, and the USA has done some doozies, both parties, and Trump gets credit for calling some of them out. But this is no way to run a railroad, or any other organization.
The Democrats also brought attention to tariffs and China long ago, but nobody wanted to make decisions with high political cost.
Dumbya and Billy Jeff laying low on trade thing.
“Trump calmed the stock and bond markets for now. The key issues still remain.”
The supersized global debt bubble has not deflated, yet. The Nasdaq, which Denninger noted it’s base trend line from 2009 was 65% below price, has not reverted to the mean, as of yet. None of the underlying problems have been solved and there isn’t a painless way to solve them. Ultimately, there is no way to get around the math. Extend and pretend only works so long.
Dimon and Ackman stepped in yesterday, taking time off from their wrong speech patrols at overpriced college campuses in the northeast.
When the Chosen People speak, Donald listens.
.
Excellent points, Ron! The deleveraging that happened over the last several days is just a blip for what awaits us.
Trumptards are really stupid.
trump and his extended family are making millions on all those market swings destroying USA in the process.
But for MAGA crowd it is 5D chess, what a bunch of idiots around.
Guys it is not some sort of grand chess tournament, you elected a con man so he is doing what he knows best
Surely someone in the NSA is tracking unusual stock and option trades, just like on 9/10/2001.
Let see when we will have a fresh set of “selfmade” billionaires form this admin, JD Vance anybody? Someone needs to carry the torch on
“waiving the white flag” is a bit hyperbolic, considering that the Europeans and others want to negotiate. My personal problem, as a former European, is that Americans think it’s ok to “pay Europeans to be our friends”. That’s Class A Simping.
They’re not paying their NATO bills, they’re hardly participating in defending international trade, they’ve surrendered ports to Chinese companies, they’re destroying poorer nations with their agricultural and zero-carb guidelines, and they have hardly produced any art in about one century.
They’ll become friends (at arm’s length) when they pay their bills.
“I think I joined the wrong mob”
-Lucky Luciano
I added an interesting image
Who Knew What When?
I was looking for that as well. What is the largest insider trade of all time?
Who was called and where are the SEC officials on this? Or, did they get fired in anticipation of these opportunities?
After all “Winning” is personal to this clown.
That should help Peter Schiff on his insider trading investigation of yesterday — although I’m sure he has access to plenty of info. Reminds me of the options activity in the airlines around 9/11.
I know that you don’t like unions but I don’t believe that they are a major cause of US cost to manufacture or produce. It’s the cost of living in the United States. If the USA could have affordable housing, affordable healthcare (it is over 17% of GDP), and affordable education (only subsidized for those with high aptitude in the proper subjects) and affordable occupational training (again only subsidized for those with high aptitude in the proper fields) it would be much more beneficial than any elimination of unions.
Why don’t we try sound money instead of unsound unions?
My big union gripe is with public unions
My second biggest gripe is forced participation
Also, they’d have no leverage without the implicit threat of violence against anyone who crosses a picket line.
I guess you’ve never seen the retirement payout packages for “municipal employees” in places like NY and California. Just one example below…and yes, that’s PER YEAR. Part of the reason Mish bailed on Illinois.
—————————
Biggest-ever CalPERS pension tops $400,000 per year
By Tribune Content Agency Feb 19, 2020 Updated Jul 14, 2023
SACRAMENTO — A former top investment official at CalPERS received the largest pension the retirement system has ever paid last year, according to Transparent California and reviews of pension data by The Sacramento Bee.
Curtis Ishii, 64, of Sacramento, retired from the California Public Employees’ Retirement System as its managing investment director for fixed income in July 2018.
Last year, Ishii received $418,608 in pension payments, according to Transparent California, a website that tracks public pensions and salaries. His pension topped Transparent California’s list of 2019 CalPERS pensions, according to a news release.
CalPERS paid one pension in its history that was larger, but later reduced it to $132,000, according to Transparent California. That pension, originally $551,000 per year, went to former Vernon city manager Bruce Malkenhorst, according to the news release.
The Sacramento Bee reviewed top pension data for 2018, when the highest pension was about $372,000 per year.
The only fix to this is for a taxpayer revolt to force states into bankruptcy.
L.A. Water and Power hired as it’s chief, a woman whose priority was DEI and doubled the salary of the position. She managed to leave a reservoir empty, which contributed to the outcome of the Palisades fire. Priorities.
Unions can be great, when they disengage from specific party support. They should focus on their real objective, ensuring fair contracts and more opportunities to workers etc.
This is what happens when one has no clue as to what he is doing or the likely outcome. The showman at work who is making it up as the he goes along.
There’s no evidence that anyone has a clue, any more… a billion clueless experts.
1380 days left in his presidency and now the golden age is on pause for 90 days, he can’t really afford to burn days like that and hope to accomplish anything.
Trump did not just blink, he soiled himself as the bond market bitch slapped him into the corner of his fourth grade classroom.
Elections have consequences.
Ah the smell of market napalm (and Trump soil) in the morning. Another great day in America. Ready for The Trumpocolypse™ to really get rolling?
Stay tuned for a very explosive next week.
You must have jizzed yourself and shat yourself at the same time writing that CCP piss.
Get off the computer grandpa
You must have jizzed yourself and shat yourself at the same time writing that CCP piss.
Are out out now or on day release?
You must have jizzed yourself and shat yourself at the same time writing that broken English CCP piss.
Ah, an Essex boy day trader out on day release, probably sitting by a pool in Marbella with a tired trophy blond.
I guess this passes for razor sharp wit in Chigwell.
They do have consequences, That’s why Harris lost.
I agree. Comrade Kamala is the one who soiled herself and needs to go away for good.
I would say she looks way smarter than Trump at this particular moment. One of Trumps own minions is comparing Trumps strategy on tariffs as akin to a poker game. Can you imagine Trump playing poker and the pot consists of all our futures? What a total and complete ass.
i think he went all in with a pair of threes on this last round.
Funny, the last I checked China still has 125% tariffs. I seriously doubt anything that’s happened to date wasn’t expected by the Trump economic team:
China isn’t close to backing down
The stock market has sold off
The bond market has sold off
70+ countries are working with Trump to address America’s trade concerns with each of those countries
Absolutely none of this was “unexpected”. Ultimately, the two major players in all of this are China & Mexico. Every other country is just low hanging fruit.
Tariffs can fund the entire budget of a much smaller government. How do you reduce transfer payments and debt interest? You default by hyperinflation. Default on welfare only works if you import manufacturing jobs to replace welfare. The solution for unwed mothers is a husband. The solution for the social security Ponzi is replacement with mandatory personal savings. The solution for indigents is charity.
You can’t hyperinflate the global reserve currency… do you even understand what inflation is?!
You probably mean “hyper devalue”, but even then, you can’t devalue a currency that you don’t control, and the USA does not control the USD, it’s out there in the wild now.
Americans are debt slaves, shopping in company stores.
No choice, no voting for change…circling the drain.
You are. I’m not.
Most people in the world are slaves of some sort. Nothing new under the sun.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
Trump lost big way but now is trying to save his ass saying he cornered China with tariffs on them alone.
So this is same futile attempt like old Joe Biden trying to put embargo on Russia over Ukraine invation, expecting that his embargo will bring Russia down. Obviously it failed
Trump is using same playbook like Biden here, I assume he knows it is not going to work but just saving his face on expense of everything else. Art of a failed deal
Not sure if USA will survive 4 year of this clown show
I know that I have stopped buying farmland adjacent to my farm or investing in expanding my Industrial property holdings. I liquidated most of my tech stocks in January and sold a couple of investment properties just after the election.
Mining stocks and ETF’s have been great performers with the mining stocks continuing to lag a bit I think there is still upside there.
18,000 oil workers have been laid off as Russian oil floods the markets. The Russian Ruble is up 20% while the dollar is falling and our nations credibility is crashing.
Just who does trump work for?
You are CCP bot, you don’t own anything… “blah blah blah blah blah… next”
It’s not so much work for, its more compliant with. Vlad will release those watersport videos otherwise.
blah blah blah blah blah… next
Mish, what are they saying at the St. George Running Center (running and hiking shoes) on E. Red Cliff Drive? Surprised to see HOKA mens Speedgoats still on sale after all of this.
Great Leader’s reversals are too fast to even rewrite a price sticker. Plus, nervous customers mean no price hikes so quickly? I bought my high-end New Balances (5 pairs) in December, and already they are up $50.
The hilarious thing is that you think that the bond market was in great shape prior to the tariffs — a bond market where Yellen was afraid to issue anything other than T Bills.
Exactly. The writing has been on the wall for a long long time.
But it erupted upwards just now. Coincidence?
Just remember that before the election Bessent ridiculed Yellen for doing this. Then once he becomes Treasury secretary he maintains the exact same policy. At least you can’t call Yellen a hypocrite.
I agree. We are in an extremely bad position at the end of process of de-industrialization and levering up that started with the Reagan administration and has ramped up exponentially over time. There is pain ahead. Probably a lot of inflation. There were two routes to go with this. One, we could’ve continued the aforementioned process and ended up with much higher inflation and nothing to show for it, other than more debt and an even more precarious financial position. Or, we could do what we’re trying to do now, and hopefully end up with a re-industrialized country and a reinvigorated middle and working class but also with much higher inflation. Both bad choices, but at least with the second one you end up with something beneficial.
When the lights pop on, there’s always more than one Sam Bankman-Fraud and risk manager Caroline “Harry Potter”, friend of Gensler. .
Anyone have the MLMOVE index numbers? Dont have a Bloomberg.
Happy Liquidation Day
So now the CCP is sending out a video of Chairman Mao, saying we will never give up! Its the line from the Democratic party by the way. 45MM dead Chinese. Well that’s a selling point. If I had to bet, would say that the CCP will get pitchforks before this is all over.
“But if you go carrying pictures of Chairman Mao
You ain’t going to make it with anyone anyhow
Don’t you know know it’s gonna be
Alright
Alright
Alright”
They shot the messenger on that one, sadly.
I was listening to Instant Karma as the latest gyrations were unfolding.
The only one blinking is you Mish. My condolences to those who shorted the markets based on your writings. This is a real tough market with trillions sitting in short securities and cash looking for somewhere to go.
go go gold…
Anybody speaking so confidently now in this micro-compressed news cycle with its reversals is speaking too soon. I didn’t short, but rebalanced to interest-bearing cash-based investments and am flat since the day before Liberation Day, and happily so.
Trump has lost so much credibility through this mis-management of his authority. He promised that he would get out of the way of American businesses and remove regulation and the involvement in government. Instead he has created a tariff situation to drive virtually all of their decisions. One day its this, the next day its that, nothing is consistent and the reasoning behind all of it is built on a false premise.
Tariffs can not dove the deficit when there are no cuts in the budget beyond political hacks. The budget passed by congress has no cumulative cuts and the defense budget is predicted to go up 12%.
Trumps acts are not rational or reasonable and quite frankly I would not negotiate with him at all. I’d show him the middle finger and move on with credible leaders of countries that show leadership and innovation.
The U.S. under trump is facing an astounding lack of credibility.
Instead of deregulation they are regulating via tariffs where materials are sourced from, who businesses hire, where they produce their products, where they build their factories. All of this is inflationary.
When trumps first tariffs were implemented importers suffered and their margins fell. Money poured into the markets from the FED during covid and prices began to rise. importers then re-established their margins and actually increased them. Thus the trump inflation worked its way into prices. It simply took some time.
Bottom line? Trump can not manage the U.S. economy or even show a modicum of self control.
I am not fooled by trumps childishness and it looks like we are heading down under his leadership. We need adults running our country.
>
Like Joe and Hunter Biden! Oh yay! Go back to sleep.
My comment is regarding donald trump and his absolute incompetence and lack of recognition of the compolexities of markets. Tariffs will not balance the budget, they will not create stability – especially with his random acts. Nothing trump is doing is bringing peace to the Middle East, the Ukraine or creating stability or de-regulation for Americans our our businesses.
Perhaps Patrick, you have an articulate and informed comment?
I’d love to hear one from you!
Comments are all through the threads Frosty. All I see from you are repetitions of TDS. And a strange fascination with defecation. Which is not just limited to you, but common to the thread.
you’re blowing too hard… you can’t make an articulate and informed comment.
Sadly, Kamala was the alternative. But we deserve better than both of these clown cars.
You have lost so much credibility just writing this garbage, that no-one will read.
Wow, what an amazing rejoinder. Goes with the elegance of your screen name.
You must have jizzed yourself and shat yourself at the same time writing that CCP piss.
Sad. Had a short doing very nicely, shoulda known old jellyback would have melted when the heat turned up
Ouch.
You and a pack of over leveraged hedge funds got liquidated.
Too much leverage is the mind killer. Big worm, spice etc.
Mish, thank you so much for doing a piece on this and putting to bed the rumors China was dumping treasuries. My question now is about your statement that nothing is fixed, does that mean this could happen again and run it’s course? By run it’s I mean commercial credit locking up, and affecting payrolls, purchase of inventory, and all that.
Long Term Capital was running basis trades at 100x leverage. Do you know what happened there?
Same happening currently…basis traders getting carried out on stretchers
Exactly. While headline algos were all about tariffs destroying the bond market, the stock market, the known universe, beyond the known universe, etc. Fear sells. Its also the mind killer.
Fear is beautiful.
In other words, leveraged markets and balance sheets are unstable by nature, or fragile as Taleb would say.
Careful about Taleb. He was wrong on a number of things.
His concept of fragility is quite interesting. He was really wrong about covid and lockdowns, but that’s another story. And he lost boatloads in options looking for a crash. But you don’t have to follow your own thought to validate that thought.
Weird thing with a deeper reflection on Taleb is simply “the unexpected is truly unexpected.” By him, too. He can’t prognosticate events in the zone of “Extremistan” either. Goes back to Mandelbrot talking about things, once they go fractal, as fundamentally not predictable.
We are permanently living within the Stockholm Syndrome of Trump’s minute to minute ADHD. Some commenters here actually like it.
If I were a manufacturer abroad, I’d make sure that there’s no supplier from the US and would diversify away from the US market. Running a company is hard enough and no one needs a capricious trade partner.
Yes! China can sell all its goods into Africa!
They will sell them in the USA, except the price just doubled.
Great for inflation, huh?
No reference to poop Ed? Are you going to buy at double the price? Now that would be a good segway to poop.
They will be Chinese, but with “made in Angola” stamped on the side.
The US are not the universe of international trade.
A few things:
[1] The bond market locked up yesterday intraday, and that’s what prompted Bessent to scramble over to see Trump and plead no mas….
[2] To Mish’s credit, and I’ll paraphrase, “the sharpest rallies occur during bear markets”…spot on
[3] And lastly, while somewhat juvenile, I love looking at the long-term chart of the Dow Jokes over at macrotrends . net, in it’s unmolested linear (non Log) form unadjusted for inflation…one look at that chart and the ridiculousness of the move from 1982 says it all in a picture
https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart it’s like it hit a ceiling in the noughties, and then after the GFC, “someone did something”, and sent it up like a rocket… I’m guess that something was a debt explosion with no ROI or growth.
In the end I also think that its a big mistake to believe that Trump is orchestrating everything. He’s a bright guy, but a bright guy who brings in talent let’s that talent do its job within the set out framework. Bessent is running the tariff show. Trump is selling it. Yes, Barnum and Bailey style, which is what the public understands. Although I would say he is more focussed on an analytical framework, even while on the stump. So the lies, lies, lies shtick does not really hold. Its politics as well and in politics, there is no analytical (meaning self contained or all encompassing) truth, though there may be in the longer run.
Bright guy? Do you know anyone in your age bracket who speaks like that? Would you hire anyone who spoke like that? Would you wed a daughter to anyone who spoke like that?
Are you off your meds?
Who speaks like that? Elon Musk, Scott Bessent, Alan Greenspan….
They were all bright guys, even if Alan was a freak.
that would depend on a lot of things.
Trump admitted, after Bessent spoke that it was the bond market and general anxiety that caused him to pause it, saying he did it on instinct. Despite this MAGA will no doubt run with the story that it was a brilliant, planned 5-D chess move.
I’m glad he pulled back. but he’s the one who set the house on fire to begin with.
the scariest thing here i how little foresight, and contingency planning went into the most monumental trade decision of the last 100 years. I mean, they must have known the market would tank, and probably should have foreseen credit issues as well. Adults would have taken account of that and had a plan, either said the risk isn’t worth it, or here’s what we are going to do. that’s not what happened.
Trump decided, then he and his minions gave caried and conflicting rationales. we’re negotiating, but these are here to stay until we bring jobs back and raise revenue. what?? Then after the completely predictable happened, and the markets swooned and liquidity issues reared its head as it always does, he pulls some of the tariffs.
looks like market is giving some back, as it should, given that everyone realizes the US trade and commerce policy is as chaotic as everything else about the Trump administration.
And good point MIsh about the 90-day pause. he could change his mind tomorrow about that.
Read Michael Wolff’s book “Fire and Fury” about the first Trump administration. It explains how Trump really operates and how this existing situation is very close your description.
Thoughtful post, and why this site is a good read. MIsh and his readers are not silos of repetitious quips.
Mish especially takes both sides of the political parties to task. I do not always agree with him, and that is a good thing as the provocation of thought is important.
Regards,
You talk as if everything was fine until he did something… that kind of talk is delusion.
things were going great compared to what it would look like if his idiotic policy continued. it’s ruinous, and it’s only people who’ve never seen actual bad that think this country is some sort of disaster. it’s not. Whatever our issues, burning it all down is worse.
As for China, what do you reasonably expect, it has been underperforming for a century, and that changed in the last few decades.
People underestimate the extent to which WWII remade the world and how much of the post WWII prosperity was because the rest of the world was literally rubble — Euro[e, China, Japan, SE Asia, Russia, UK –while the US homeland was untouched and we then rebuilt Europe.
That wasn’t going to keep indefinitely, it wasn’t a result of only this or that policy and burning everything down isn’t going to bring back 1950.
“things were going great” BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!
I don’t live in your country, I am not of your country, I’ve seen actual bad all around the world, lots of times, and recently, and it ain’t this…
The WW2 world is long gone, and China’s performance is due to its demographic bulge, that is now over, and it’s been dry pumping debt into a dying economy for the last 10 years – and now it’s imploding.
They will most certainly talk to Vietnam about making more of its own stuff and taking market share from China. Its just math and money at this point. There is no love lost between Vietnam and China. This will apply to most of our trading partners. Take market share from China. As Pettis has pointed out for the last 25 years, China has gross internal imbalances in its economy. They need to consume more, produce less. The problem is that the CCP’s model cannot really adapt to change. Grip on power etc. So the world will adapt for them.
I agree. There’s a Chinese lady on YouTube (Lei’s Real Talk) who has an excellent channel focused on what’s happening on the inside of the CCP. Major power struggle going on now. Xi sacked 1300 senior military officers who were opposed to a Taiwan invasion.
She did a study of Vietnam’s trade numbers. They have a surplus of about $140 million with us and about the same deficit with China. So they import about 25% of their GDP from China and then sell it to us. Of course, we’re on to this tariff avoidance and why Trump put their tariff at 46%. We need to do this with every country and make them prove that whatever they sell to us doesn’t have any Chinese components or we tariff it at the Chinese rate.
And better yet, help them set up factories to make it themselves! Hey Nike, you should set up shop in Vietnam instead of China. Biz climate in Chin is not so good with the tariffs and stuff … etc.
Crash!!?? Ho, ho ho.
All the headlines are following Trump’s messaging of a “pause”, but the fact is that goods imported from practically every country in the world are taxed at 10% and Chinese goods at 125%. These damaging tariffs are all Trump’s doing. Nothing is “fixed”
Uh …
Why do you think that prices of everything in Home Depot doubling overnight is a good thing?
I am curious.
We do to actually think he has thought this trough. ;-)))
I don’t and they won’t. Amazon is cancelling orders in China across the spectrum. Small factories will be sitting on inventory or cutting in order to sell that inventory. Maybe things go to a 10% country who resells into the US, and the cost of the discounted item from China more than offsets that 10%. Anyway, I just had a wheel barrow from HD/China fall apart with little use. And a shovel. A muffler lasted a year and a half. The list goes on and on. They are not the only game in town. They can reduce their tariffs to the US or face a peasant revolution at home.
…but it’s not everything, is it… imagine that all the cheap tat from China now costs the same as all the quality stuff made in the USA, then people will just buy the American stuff, rather than the false economy Chinese stuff.
Try and find some nuts and bolt that are “Made in America”
You can’t.
Yes I can:
https://www.mutualscrew.com/department/usa-made-fasteners-19381.cfm
it took all of 5 seconds.
The Deterministic Self-ordering Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System … 15-minute Unit Fractals.
The US debt market like the composite equity market undergoes a self-assembly time-based fractal growth and decay valuation process. The next weekly nadir for the April 2023 TNX is 22/55/31 of 33 weeks :: x/2.5x/1.5x, which coincides with a composite equity crash low.
The SPX is undergoing a self-assembly process for its last 13 day 4th fractal in the 3 Feb 2025 terminal growth and incipient fractal crash decay series of 8/19/20/13 days :: x/2-2.5x/2.5x/1.6x. On a 15-minute fractal time basis, the 7 April 2025 3rd fractal 20 day low begins its 13 day 4th fractal with a 3/6/7 15-minute unit :: x/2x/2-2.5x fractal growth series, followed by a 11/28/28 15-minute unit :: x/2.5x/2.5x maximal fractal growth series ending at the close on 9 April 2025 and fractally similar to the 27 Oct 2023 55/139/138 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x lower high maximum fractal growth series and the 1807 36/90/90 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x (composite Wilshire) high on 8 November 2021. The Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System is deterministic in its time-based fractal self-assembly of its composite asset valuation growth and its composite asset valuation decay and is undergoing a 1982 13/32 of 33 year :: x/2.5x 32 of 33 year second fractal nonlinear collapse similar to the 1807 36/90 year :: x/2.5x 87 of 90 year second fractal collapse peaking on 3 Sept 1929 and nadiring on 8 July 1932.
You mean it goes up and down?
Does anyone understand what this dingbat keeps rambling about in his posts?
I think its an algo gone rogue.
Time will tell .. A very specific prediction has been made …
Which is worthless if you can’t communicate it in plain English.
Once again …
Qualitatively …Credit expands via governmental, corporate, and citizen debt; assets are produced and over-produced , overvalued and over-consumed; composite equity asset valuations reach a singular fractal time-unit (minute, hour, day, week, month) peak valuation and thereafter undergo decay; consumers reach maximum debt loads,recessions occur; with weakening demand, interest rates fall; excess debt undergoes default and restructuring; individual and corporate bankruptcies occur; and composite equity (and commodity) asset valuations eventually reach a singular fractal time-unit nadir. The cycle thereafter repeats itself.
Quantitatively and empirically … composite equity asset valuation growth and decay cycles occur in 2 modes(laws) of elegantly simple, Occum’s razor, mathematical self-organizing, self-assembly time-based fractal series:
a 4-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x and
a 3-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x
In the 4-phase fractal series sequential elements are termed: the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th fractals and in the 3-phase fractal series: the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fractals… Visit The Economic Fractalist for further expansion …
Ok, thank you for the explanation. Forecasting future moves becomes infinitely complex, for one reason that markets are composed of people who are self referential which includes emotion. Markets with machines, makes that math a little more orderly, like EMAs and Fibonaccis for referencing support / resistance. But that’s still more art than science. But I’ll happily look at the Fracalist, always good to learn more.
Updated in 2005? Maybe we should talk about Leibniz and infintesimals …
Started posting in 2005 with changes in governing fractal laws and in the long term 1807 overriding yearly fractal pattern of 36/90/90/54-57 years; see 2025 updates. For composite equities eg. SPX, QQQ, RUT, DJIA, Wilshire, (et. al. foreign composites) the market is composed of investor/trader population end saturation buying which represents an easily identifiable peak valuation and thereafter population end saturation selling which represents an easily identifiable nadir valuation.
Below is a more complete explanation of time-based fractal progression of composite asset valuations which the asset debt macroeconomic system ‘self-organizes’ into one of the two fractal modes or laws:
a 4-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x and
a 3-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x
Qualitatively …On the longest time-unit cycles (years) credit expands via governmental, corporate, and citizen debt; assets are produced and over-produced , overvalued and over-consumed; consumers reach maximum debt loads; the population of possible traders/invested are fully invested and composite equity asset valuations reach a singular fractal time-unit (minute, hour, day, week, month) peak valuation and thereafter undergo decay; recessions occur with weakening demand, interest rates fall; excess debt undergoes default and restructuring; individual and corporate bankruptcies occur; and composite equity (and commodity) asset valuations eventually reach a singular fractal time-unit nadir. The cycle thereafter repeats itself.
On smaller time-unit fractal cycles (quarters, months, weeks, days, hours, 15-minute/ 5 and 1-minute) : trader/investor population saturation of asset buying occurs ending in a transient peak valuation .. followed by trader/investor population saturation end selling resulting in a transient nadir valuation. These peaks and nadirs occur in one of the two quantitative fractal patterns as above.
prove it… and in plain English.
You’ve obviously thought a lot about this, which is why you post incoherent garbage.
Bessent as one of your astute readers reminded me yesterday, was trading for Soros when he broke the Pound and made a yard on the trade. Not an amateur of markets.
and a bit of a nasty piece of work too.
And a backdoor bandit. allegedly
Wishful thinking on your part, perhaps.
Lowest inflation print since May 2020. All going to plan.
Thanks. So you’re on record that any economic data coming forth is now on Trump’s watch and “plan”.
None of us want to hear the opposite from you later that you’re blaming the future Armageddon on Biden.
I will second that…it’s all 100% Trump and GOP now. 100%
I will remind everyone here until this blog shuts down how republicans ALWAYS crash the economy. Proof is in the pudding…Regan, Bush I, Bush II, Trump I and now Trump II. Proven track record of total incompetence.
You missed out Biden and Obama, so you’re incompetent at commenting on incompetence – ironically.
If Trump causes a recession (which isn’t going to be economic Armageddon) before 2026, then the GOP will lose Congress & Vance will be a no go for 2028. And honestly, I’m fine with that.
I firmly believe in what Trump is trying to do economically & with regards to China. Whether or not he’s able to pull it off is hard to say. The RINOs, Dems & MSM have not gone anywhere.
However, I am absolutely certain that the path Biden was taking was the shortest road to Armageddon in all sorts of ways.
Starting about noon yesterday, 20 point bounce then ES went into a 10-15 point trading range for about 40 minutes. I said to myself, self, this is not a market with VIX at 50. Bizarre. So, somebody knew something. Had to re-enter and went to get a sandwich. Then an algo expansion to 5100, rug pull to 5068, boom, news hits.
Trump has no strategy. He’s just a insecure geriatric who wants to bully as cowards do.he mist likely was told to pause his lunacy because the public are getting angry. And they are losing supporters.
Trump has simply been carrying out the promises he’s long made. His global tariff plan, for example, was outlined in 2023. Why, then, have C-suiters remained quiet cheerleaders for Trump while he implemented an economic vision that no sane person would endorse? https://labornotes.org/blogs/2025/04/viewpoint-why-oligarchs-want-recession?
Do you know anything about Scott Bessent or are you just happy sitting at the table eating Fruit Loops?
we know Bessent looked like a fool when, after telling the world this was all part of Trump’s brilliant plan, Trump himself, later, said he just changed his mind based on instinct and the fact that people were getting “yippy”.
He admitd he’s making it up as he goes along, even as his minions are behind him trying to mold his poop into coherence.
When you do something it works out exactly as thought, right? Or maybe you don’t do anything because your are unsure of it working out exactly as you would like? Speaking of poop …
Speaking of poop, how does Trump’s smell?
Your head is so far up there, your first name must be Charmin.
You really need to break off this fascination with other people’s poop.
Are you one of the “adults in the room”, then?
No its Vlad. He’s no known as shoe laces for nothing, that the only thing exposed.
That “ insecure geriatric” is so powerful that he is controlling the stock market and your portfolio. Is your strategy to let someone with no strategy control your investments?
I remember voting for that – NOT.
Yes….that’s an IRISH analysis
I strongly suspect that a significant number of Republican House and Senate members up for re-election next year in marginal districts and states are concerned about losing their own jobs.
but his polls went up to 53% favourability… why are you posting breathless lies?
ApproveDisapprovespreadRCP Average
3/7 – 4/9—47.050.2Spread-3.2HarrisX
4/4 – 4/71883 RV4749Spread-2Quinnipiac
4/3 – 4/71407 RV4153Spread-12Economist/YouGov
4/5 – 4/81563 RV4552Spread-7Rasmussen Reports
4/3 – 4/91500 LV4752Spread-5
https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/trump-scores-53-approval-rating-in-latest-national-poll/vi-AA1CH19C
next…
Wasn’t that 53% from Feb?
Ray Dalio, head of the world’s largest hedge fund, warns we’re misreading current events & says the biggest issue is that we’re at a turning point in a long-term global cycle caused by excessive debt.https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/dont-make-mistake-thinking-whats-now-happening-mostly-ray-dalio-w8dbe/
Wait, are you saying:
…is unsustainable?
it is not sustainable. No one has come up with a remotely plausible plan. Not Dem, but certainly not Trump or Republicans, who refuse to cut any of the 750 military bases we have worldwide, many for no good reason at all, and who want to continue idiotic tax cuts.
the way to deal with the debt is to cut spending and raise taxes on corporations who have so much money there have been trillions in buybacks over the last few years. They have literally no better use for it. we have the lowest corporate tax rate of any developed country, and all Republicans want to do is get it lower and meanwhile they cut medical research which is a drop in the bucket, then scream about how unsustainable it all is al the while causing the problem,
this is a solvable problem, we just need to raise corporate taxes and cut some of the dumbest spending which is on the military. Contrary to what people think most military spending isn’t on new weapons, it’s personnel and base costs. We can cut military budget significantly and still develop new weapons, and even these weapons programs are unbelievably wasteful and stupid. the main point of some of these is to create jobs and industrial base, which I understand, but it’s basically welfare, using taxpayer money to build and maintain pointless ships and planes that even military commanders will admit serve no actual military purpose.
Time and again we’ve had generals make suggestions to cut, and a senator or representative shuts that down because it hurts jobs in their district.
Actually, Trump is cutting bases. Small basses and size cutbacks at big ones. All the while prepping the country for the notion that big cutbacks are in order and will be coming soon.
No military commander ever said that the American military gear of any type is useless and serves no purpose. What they said is there are better purposes for the military than the ones that the equipment in question serves.
Exactly. And not just the one he is talking about. There are several multi-generational cycles coming to a head at almost the same time. Putin, Xi and Trump are each trying to deal with what they believe will be the consequences, in their own way. Everybody else is just pouring gasoline on the fire. Personally I prefer Trump’s response, while acknowledging it might not work. It is possible that nothing will work to my advantage.
EG: one of the issues is …the world’s population is starting to shrink. Soon it will be dramatic. The only part of the world where that isn’t happening is is Africa and India. There, it is increasing dramatically. Not too far off into the future, they will have half the world’s population. It isn’t that things will be different then. It is that this is just one factor that will start making a noticeable difference to everyone else very soon.