Details prove insider trading by Trump or his connections is not conjecture. 
Please consider the following posts by Peter Girnus.
Girnus is a senior threat researcher where he protects organizations from cybersecurity threats.
He is also a Senior Surveillance Analyst at a commodities exchange for nineteen years.
Girnus has also been monitoring suspicious trades related to Donald Trump’s announcements.
Here is Peter Girnus’ Website Home Page. And here is a post on X Girnus just did on insider trading.
Insider Trading
I have three monitors on my desk. The left one shows the order book. The middle one shows Truth Social. The right one shows the investigation queue. On April 21st, the left screen moved first.
I am a Senior Surveillance Analyst at a commodities exchange. I have held this position for nineteen years. My job is to monitor trading activity for suspicious patterns and generate compliance reports. I am employee of the quarter. I have a mug.
At 19:54 GMT on April 21st, someone placed 4,260 sell orders on Brent crude futures. They did this during post-settlement. The window after the market closes when daily volume is typically in the dozens. Sometimes single digits.
Sometimes I watch the screen and nothing happens for forty minutes and I think about whether my daughter is happy. On April 21st, someone placed $430 million in directional bets in 120 seconds during that window. One hundred and twenty seconds. I timed it on my watch because the system clock rounds to the nearest minute and I have found, in nineteen years, that precision matters to no one but me.
At 20:10 GMT, the President posted on Truth Social that he was extending the Iran ceasefire. Brent dropped from $100.91 to $96.83.
I flagged the trade. I flag a lot of trades. I want to tell you what happens to my flags. My flags go into a system called TRACE. Trade Review and Compliance Evaluation. I did not name it.
The system generates a report. The report goes to a committee. The committee has a name I am not allowed to share but I can tell you it meets quarterly and the conference room has a credenza with bottled water that is sparkling because someone once put still water in the room and a managing director sent an email about it that was longer than most of my surveillance reports.
The committee reviews my flags. The committee has reviewed all of my flags.
Here is the complete record of actions taken on my flags in 2026: Reviewed. That’s it. “Reviewed” is a status. In compliance, a status is the absence of an action that has been given a name so it looks like one.
Let me show you my flags. March 9th. Someone bet millions on oil falling at 18:29 GMT. Forty-seven minutes later, a CBS reporter posted that the President said the Iran war was “very complete, pretty much.” Oil dropped 25%. Forty-seven minutes. I flagged it.
March 23rd. Someone sold 5,100 lots of Brent and WTI crude futures between 10:49 and 10:50 GMT. Fourteen minutes later, the President posted on Truth Social about a “COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION” to hostilities. Oil dropped 11%. Over 13,000 contracts traded in sixty seconds after the post. Fourteen minutes. I flagged it.
April 7th. Someone established a $950 million short position in oil futures at 19:45 GMT. Three hours later, the President declared a two-week ceasefire. Nine hundred and fifty million dollars. I flagged it.
April 17th. Someone placed $760 million in bearish bets twenty minutes before Iran’s foreign minister confirmed the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. Seven hundred and sixty million. I flagged it.
April 21st. The $430 million. Fifteen minutes. I flagged it. That is $2.1 billion in directional oil bets in April alone.
Every one of them landed on the correct side of a presidential announcement. Every one of them was placed in a window so narrow you could measure it in bathroom breaks. I flagged every single one.
The CFTC chair told a Congressional committee that his organization has “zero tolerance” for fraud and insider trading. I wrote that quote on a Post-it note and stuck it to my right monitor. The one that shows the investigation queue.
The investigation queue has not moved since March. Zero tolerance. Zero staff. Zero budget. Zero prosecutions under the STOCK Act since it was signed in 2012. Fourteen years.
The law has existed for fourteen years and has been enforced zero times. In compliance, we call that a compliance rate of one hundred percent. No cases filed means no cases lost. You cannot fail an audit you never conduct. We call that excellence.
Last month the White House sent an internal email to staff. I was not on the distribution list but I have read reporting on it and I need you to sit with what I am about to say.
The email instructed White House staff not to use insider information to place bets on prediction markets. The White House had to send a memo telling its own employees not to insider-trade.
I want you to read that sentence again. Not because the instruction was unclear. Because the instruction was necessary. Because someone in the building looked at the same pattern I have been flagging for months on my three monitors and decided the appropriate response was an email.
The President’s son sits on the advisory board of Kalshi. He is an investor in Polymarket. Both are prediction markets. Both saw accounts created days before U.S. military action.
One account. I cannot stop thinking about this account. It was called “Burdensome-Mix.” It was created in December. On January 2nd, it placed $32,500 on Venezuela’s president being removed from power.
On January 3rd, Maduro was seized by U.S. special forces. Burdensome-Mix collected $436,000. Then it changed its username. Then it disappeared.
One account is a coincidence. But there were six. Six accounts were created on Polymarket in February. All bet on U.S. strikes on Iran by the 28th. When the President confirmed the strikes, the six accounts collected $1.2 million between them. Five of the six never placed another bet. The sixth went on to correctly predict the ceasefire date and made another $163,000.
My surveillance system logged all of this. My system logs everything. My system does not have opinions and neither do I. I generate reports. The reports go to committees. The committees meet quarterly. Between meetings, the windows get shorter and the bets get larger.
March 9th: 47 minutes. March 23rd: 14 minutes. April 17th: 20 minutes. April 21st: 15 minutes.
The window is compressing. In March, you had time to make coffee between the trade and the announcement. By April, you had time to send a text. By summer, at this rate, the trade and the announcement will be the same event.
The spokesman said any implication that administration officials are engaged in insider trading is “baseless and irresponsible reporting.” Then the White House sent the email again.
I have been in compliance for nineteen years. I have seen insider trading run out of strip mall offices by men who could not spell “derivative.” I have seen pump-and-dump schemes coordinated over WhatsApp by people who used their real names. I have seen a man try to manipulate soybean futures from a Panera Bread.
I have never seen $2.1 billion in perfectly timed trades across five presidential announcements in a single month go uninvestigated.
But I have also never seen a compliance system work this beautifully. Every trade flagged. Every report filed. Every committee briefed. Every quarterly meeting attended. Bottled water: sparkling. Minutes: distributed. Zero prosecutions.
As long as the flags go up and the cases don’t, my performance review says I am meeting expectations. I am meeting expectations. The system is meeting expectations. The $2.1 billion is meeting expectations. The fourteen-year-old law with zero prosecutions is meeting expectations.
The left screen moves. The middle screen moves. The right screen stays perfectly, immaculately still. In my field, we call this price discovery.
What Will Be Done?
You know the answer – Nothing as long as Trump is President – Perhaps forever.
Q: Is there any risk to these individuals.
A: At the Federal level, seemingly no.
Q: Why?
A: Trump will pardon everyone involved, and they know it.
Q: What do you mean by seemingly?
A: It depends when Trump pardons them. If there is an investigation that starts after the midterms instead of at the end of Trump’s term, he may throw them under the bus. Alternatively he just pardons them now.
Q: What about the state level, the IRS, or state collection agencies.
A: I don’t know and I don’t know.
Trump cannot pardon state crimes. And although criminal convictions can be pardoned, we don’t know about keeping ill-gotten gains from such transactions. It’s questionable if they are immune.
Even if they are, immune, they will still have to face Congressional inquiries when Democrats hold the House.
This mess is certain to surface, even if Trump can protect those involved.
The Most Corrupt Administration in History
The Trump administration is the most corrupt administration in history.
It’s all out in the open, they don’t even try to hide it. They do it in size.
And it’s not just insider trading. Trump is guilty of numerous blatantly unconstitutional Executive orders.
Trump accuses Democrats of stealing elections even as he attempts to do so himself.
That’s what Birthright Citizenship is about. That’s what the SAVE Act is all about. That’s what his pardons of criminals is all about. That’s what his weaponization of the Department of Justice is all about. That’s what suppression of Epstein files is all about.
Nearly everything Trump does is for the benefit of himself or his supporters.
Senator Ted Cruz once accurately said of Trump “Whatever he does, he accuses everyone else of doing.”
Please Play This Video
Ted Cruz: Whatever he does, he accuses everyone else of doing. The man cannot tell the truth, and he combines it with being a narcissist, a narcissist at a level I don’t think this country has ever seen.
Rand Paul: And my concern is that he would grab up all power and really treat the country as his bully fiefdom.
Nikki Haley: Donald Trump is everything I taught my kids not to do in Kindergarten.
Marco Rubio: He’s been exploiting Americans for forty years.
Lindsey Graham: He is a race state, xenophobic, religious bigot.
Mike Pompeo: Donald Trump the other day said that quote If he tells a soldier to commit a war crime, the soldier would just go do it.
Glen Beck: I don’t think Trump has read the constitution or knows what’s in the constitution.
Rick Perry: A toxic mix of demagoguery, mean spiritedness, and nonsense.
Marco Rubio: Donald Trump is a con artist.
Ted Cruz: He doesn’t know the difference between truth and lies. He lies, practically every word that comes out of his mouth.
Lindsey Graham: I think he’s crazy.
Truer words were never spoken.
Kim Jong Un Wannabee
Trump wants to be like Kim Jong Un, the Supreme Leader of North Korea.
Un holds top positions as General Secretary of the Workers’ Party of Korea and commander-in-chief, ruling with absolute authority over everything.
Absolute power over everything is what Trump wants. If you do not see this, you are blind. And yes, you should be fearful.
Related Posts
March 4, 2026: Three Reasons the Save Act Is Unconstitutional
The SAVE Act won’t pass, and that’s a good thing.
March 16, 2026: The World’s Biggest Liar Accuses the Media of Lies and Treason
“Whatever he does, he accuses everyone else of doing,” said Senator Ted Cruz.
April 22, 2026: Which Political Party Really Wants Fair and Honest Elections?
Let’s look at actions, not words, and national legislation too, not just state level.
Trump didn’t create it. He just made it louder, faster, and impossible to ignore.
Maybe it looks ugly.
But it’s not surprising.
It’s America, scaled up, sped up, and out in the open.
White collar crime. Wealthy white collar crime at least. is expensive to prosecute and a slap on the wrist most of the time. Should make the punishment more sever. Say double what was grifted for a fine. And some hard years in jail. Maybe throw a bit of good ole caning public of coarse for measure.
Look what all madoff had to do to get his sentence. The club looks out for itself.
Same goes for treason. .
Before I say anything I would like to say I don’t believe in Democrat or Republican as in being any better than the other, for both sides are guilty of insider trading. Both sides use laws to protect themselves. When you realize this (that they are a group of people that’s untouched by law, and this extends to corporations) you realize just how rigged the game always was.
IMO the only thing that Trump is doing differently from the others (because again both sides engage in it) is doing it right in front of our faces, and not caring about the consequences.
And if you’re smart you’ll realize this is the biggest red flag that we’re close to the end.
Trump has been a grifter his entire life.
It took me a while but I see it now…DJT is a straight up fascist.
“Cui bono” is never conjecture. It is the first, and only, question needed to determine the culprit.
the whole lot needs to hang, Bernie and Trump can be hanged last.
I just read this article and was going to link it here. This is the kind of behavior future generations will shake their heads at in history books, totally inexplicable aside from the cowardace of Americans to demand better.
I guess it beats raising taxes? The new form of revenue enhancement.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s sons could be making 3 to 5x returns on every dollar they spent buying tariff refund rights.
Cantor Fitzgerald, now run by Lutnick’s sons Brandon and Kyle, was buying tariff refund claims from companies at 20 to 30 cents on the dollar.
The firm told clients it had “capacity to trade up to several hundred million” in these claims.
They confirmed at least one $10 million trade was already executed as of July 2025. They said they expected that number to “balloon in the coming weeks.” That was 9 months ago.
Today those claims are worth 100 cents on the dollar. The refund portal is live, $166 billion in refunds are being processed.
If Cantor bought $100 million in refund rights at 25 cents on the dollar, they spent $25 million.
They now collect $100 million from the government. That is a $75 million profit. A 300% return.
If they scaled to “several hundred million” as they told clients they could, the profits run into the hundreds of millions.
Howard Lutnick was the architect of the tariff policy.
He pushed Trump to impose them. He fought against officials who wanted to limit them. Then he left Cantor Fitzgerald to his sons and transferred his equity into a trust benefiting them.
Tax free under government ethics rules. He received $360 million from the buyout.
His sons positioned the firm to profit from the exact policy their father built.
Their father publicly championed tariffs he knew could be struck down while his sons were buying refund claims betting they would be.
Are you talking about the Howard Lutnick that was a neighbor of Jeffrey Epstein and visited his private island in 2012, years after Epstein was convicted of prostituting a minor?
That Howard Lutnick?
This is what AI is really for.
Aftermath: Wall Street Is Lying to ItselfFinancial futures indicate little damage from the Iran war. Reality begs to differ.
https://prospect.org/2026/04/23/aftermath-iran-trump-wall-street-is-lying-to-itself/
Tomorrow, clarity among the insider-trading and cyanide laced flavored drink chaos?
While cultist Americans are watching Fox News and News Max and having their neural networks programed with Jim-Jones-like nonsense reinforcing climate denial, Epstein-Trump link denial, Israeli genocide denial, 2020 election outcome denial, Russian genocide denial, corrupt presidential and family financial activity denial, Jan 6 rioting and police attack denial, corrupt DOJ political targeting denial, corrupt presidential pardoning of adjudicated criminals denial, ICE anti-constitutional activity denial, extremely poor female cabinet member selection denial, et. al., … a potential prelude to cyanide self-assisted administration – 24 April 2026 should bring technical clarity to the deterministic global equity markets. On 24 April 2026, watch for a nonlinear exhaustion gap to a new final peak valuation for ACWI, the global equity proxy ETF, as it completes its 230 PM EST 30 March 2026 36/90 hour :: x/2.5x final 1982 to 2026 peak valuation growth, completing a deterministic 7 April 2025 to 24 April 2026 53/107/106 :: x/2x/2x 3-phase final growth fractal series.
thank you Fran Fran Lebowitz Talks Fashion, Politics, and Revenge | Then and Now | Harper’s BAZAAR – YouTube
Jun Brent at $104.85 and climbing. You smelling the fear and panic yet or is it just me?
I wonder what Martha Stewart thinks about all this brazen and unpunished insider trading.
“When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men in a society, over the course of time they create for themselves a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it.”
~Frederic Bastiat
That’s how the United States got started in 1494, it’s been nothing but plunder for 500 years. But to be fair, the whole world operates on plunder, and when you enter a demographic death spiral, the plundering will grow exponentially.
Remember, the strong always prey on the weak so expect elderly (all 80 million boomers, the sick, women and children) to get exploited and plundered first.
Those boomers that think social security and medicare will “take care” of them will have a rude awakening, perhaps as soon as this cruel summer.
Well it probably serves boomers right for worshipping Ronald “gut the golden age” Reagan and proceeding to elect another TV star to finish the job.
Why did the US deposit the proceeds from selling the Venezuelan oil that they stole in Qatari banks?
I suspect the reason it’s getting faster and faster (ie shorter times between bets and announcements) is that AI is probably being used now to make these trades since it’s faster than humans (the same way algorithms for years have been skimming on regular stock trades making countless hedge fund billionaires as detailed in the seminal book ‘flash boys’).
I also suspect these are going to be made more and more from offshore accounts and VPNs (if they aren’t already) and so on so that its outside US jurisdiction.
I fully believe no one is going to be charged or held accountable in the same way no one is for these hedge funds skimming on stock trades.
I would like to believe Mr. Girnus, but I cannot. He claims to be “a Senior Surveillance Analyst at a commodities exchange” and – with the slightest research from a substack page linked to his twitter page within one of the most recent posts – he is also “a Senior Vice President of Upstream Portfolio Strategy at ExxonMobil”.
Also, the volume of Brent futures never even traded the size he suggests at those time stamps. And Brent is not the ‘Speculator’s Oil’ contract anyway; so the thieves would clearly go the far more liquid and deep NYMEX contracts for that insider trading gameplay.
This is NOT to suggest this Trump Admin isn’t blatantly corrupt. I just prefer that posts that I’ve seen many times now as markets have swung wildly are all this zero-sum game of insiders at the White House gaming the system minutes or hours in advance. There have been many financial hacks that have posted these screenshots that all lack serious credibility. Most of these are not backed by factual aspects of market prices, volumes or even the times of trade entries. Again, I am NOT suggesting lizard people like Lutnick’s family isn’t gaming the system, I’m just suggesting everyone take a more skeptical view of these posts that go viral all the time claiming one thing to be true when they aren’t.
And Mish is correct: Nothing will even happen if these cretins are ever caught, anyway, so it’s almost like we are all howling at the moon on this one. Thanks for sharing, nonetheless.
We don’t even do anything about child rape, let alone insider trading.
We are a sick culture.
Make examples of them. Mandatory minimum sentences. This crap has to end.
It’s disgusting and it’s no different than any of the other fraud, contempt, perjury, and the gamut of federal government crimes committed by individuals, NGOs, consulting firms, lobbying groups and government entities themselves…. never charged let alone prosecuted and convicted.
I don’t disagree with anything written and the Trump Administration is currently in charge but infuriatingly it is bipartisan. It’s right there in this damning set of sentences that enrage average joes that get tagged, ticketed and towed for infinite offenses that pale in comparison to the damage and benefit these crooks generate:
“The investigation queue has not moved since March. Zero tolerance. Zero staff. Zero budget. Zero prosecutions under the STOCK Act since it was signed in 2012. Fourteen years.
The law has existed for fourteen years and has been enforced zero times. In compliance, we call that a compliance rate of one hundred percent. No cases filed means no cases lost. You cannot fail an audit you never conduct. We call that excellence.”
Fourteen years means Obama, Trump 45, Biden, Trump 47.
Enraging.
I recall watching insane moves in the SP500 before during and just after the GFC from 2007-2010…the massive dollar volume that moved in seconds in coordinated fashion daily was staggering. “The Bernank” would speak, Paulson, Geithner and boom….Weekends would involve shuttering huge financial institutions, Buffet would be invited to the room to glom onto special warrants and shares and issue some all-clear statement and come Monday morning billions traded hands, losers didn’t see it coming.
Anyone with eyes knows from the statements made by this latest analyst/whistleblower quoted in your post that this is outright illegal insider trading/theft/corruption. It just gets more brazen and why shouldn’t it when nothing is done about it.
The ‘Flash Boys’ book details all this.
TIL the oversight entity responsible for prosecuting insider trading says that insider trading is fine, based on the 0% of the time they follow up on the evidence provided to them. In this case, the evidence is a total slam dunk.
Luigi made a solid point.
This is the oft proved theory: “Give them enough rope and they’ll hang themselves”.
As you say “The Trump administration is the most corrupt administration in history.”
He, and his sycophants are so used to sucking at the teet of crooked money they don’t know when to stop. Moreover, they’ll do it more and more. How do you slow down after taking [a now near worthless] $2 Billion 2 days from inauguration? They can’t. They are too hooked and totally bereft of ethics or integrity.