Silver finally catches up to my forecast.
Nate Silver Three Models
- Deluxe: 65.3 percent
- Lite: 68.8 percent
- Classix: 63.4 percent
How FLIPR Forecasts the Midterm Elections
FLIPR is the new acronym for Nate Silver’s Election Models.
Aug 11, 2026
FLIPR stands for Forecast with Leading Indicators, Polls and (Expert) Ratings.
- Lite derives as much information as possible from polls alone;
- Classic is polls + fundamentals;
- And Deluxe is polls + fundamentals + expert ratings.
Deluxe
Every year, we have a debate about whether to retire the Deluxe version and stick to a model that uses purely objective inputs. Even though the expert ratings reflect other people’s judgments and not ours, there are some undesirable properties from including them. For instance, if experts are looking at Silver Bulletin forecasts to help calibrate their ratings, the entire process becomes somewhat recursive. Furthermore, in recent elections, the Deluxe version of our forecasts typically only “calls” one or two additional races correctly across the ~500 races we forecast every year compared to Classic.
Although the expert forecasts are good at discriminating between relatively stronger and weaker races for each party, they have a weird and persistent bias. Namely, expert raters tend to implicitly assume a neutral political environment (i.e., a generic ballot of about zero) until quite late in the cycle. As of early August, for instance, the unadjusted expert ratings imply a political environment of around D +2 versus the roughly D +7 environment calculated by FLIPR Classic. In a D +2 environment, a candidate like Talarico probably wouldn’t win despite Paxton’s weaknesses, but a D +7 would require much less overperformance.
FLIPR’s predecessors have always been aware of this tendency and “de-biased” the expert ratings before applying them. But in auditing the code this year, we discovered some shortcomings in the way this de-biasing process had been applied by the model. Basically, because of some artifacts in how races are rated, there was a bit of leakage from the experts’ implicit assumptions about the national environment (i.e., wrongly assuming the generic ballot = 0) into the Deluxe forecast. And we specifically do not think the experts’ views of the national environment provide much utility at all; their value is solely in the rank-ordering of different races relative to the national environment. In working on the model this year, we developed better techniques for removing this bias completely.
Senate Map Nate Silver
Nate Silver Key States
- North Carolina: 92.1 percent Democrat +1
- Maine: 73.4 percent Democrat +1
- Ohio: 69.7 percent Democrat +1
- Michigan: 76.7 percent Democrat, No Change
- Minnesota: 88.4 percent Democrat, No Change
- Texas: 68.0 percent Democrat +1
- Alaska: 53.1 percent Democrat +1
- Iowa: 52.5 percent Democrat +1
That totals +6. Silver’s model assumes two of those are wrong for +4 net.
As I have stated all year, +6 would not be any surprise. An even bigger bloodbath would put Nebraska or Kansas in play.
To put things into perspective, Silver has Democrats odds of winning Kansas at 27.7 percent vs Republican odd of winning Michigan at 23.3 percent.
That is how nasty things look for Republicans at the moment.
Alaska Senate
Yesterday, I asked Can a Democrat Win the Alaska Senate Race?
Yes. It’s what I expect. Let’s discuss why.
Kalshi has Mary Peltoa at 68 percent, and has been above 60 percent most of the year.
Polymarket has Mary Peltoa at a new high 73 percent.
Nate Silver’s deluxe model has Peltoa the underdog. I don’t buy it.
I suspect his model thinks Alaska is a red state so it stacked the deck for Sullivan.
Serious Republican Uphill Battle
The Hill repeats the red state uphill battle meme for Alaska. It’s an uphill battle alright, for Sullivan.
I have Alaska as lean-to-likely for Democrats. That changes the Senate flipping odds quite a bit.
Putting all of this together, I am about 65 percent likely, at the moment, that Democrats take the House and Senate.
That estimate is a blend of Polymarket, Kalshi, and Nate Silver (but adjusting Silver for Alaska).
Today, Silver caught me for the first time all year. His deluxe model has Alaska in the Democrat column by a tiny bit and he caught me at 65 percent overall.
I am ahead of Silver on Alaska odds, but I am not quite 69.7 percent on Ohio or 68.0 percent on Texas.
Expanding the Field
Nate Silver is at +4 Democrat pickups.
I wonder if we are in a +4 or +6 setup where if it blows, it really blows, possibly to +7.
My forecast all year has been Democrats will win nearly every race considered close, in both the House and Senate.
The problem for Republicans, and Cook Political pointed this out recently, Democrats keep expanding the number of seats in play.
For months, the majority of Cook Political shifts have been in Democrat’s direction.
Cook Political New Battleground District Poll
Please consider the Cook Political report New Battleground District Poll Shows Democrats Up, Voters Eager for Sweeping Change
A new Battleground District Project poll of the most competitive House districts in the country finds Democrats in a strong position to flip control of the chamber this fall. It also finds an electorate eager to see a new Congress do more than simply hold President Donald Trump to account, but also to make fundamental changes to the political system.
The poll, which was conducted for The Cook Political Report by Democratic firm New River Strategies and Republican firm GS Strategy Group, surveyed voters in the 37 districts we rate as Toss Up, Lean Republican or Lean Democrat. In those competitive districts, which Trump won by an average of five points in 2024, Democrats now hold a two-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, 49% to 47%.
“Voters blame Trump for making many of the country’s problems worse, and they’re more worried about Republicans enabling him than Democrats over-correcting in opposition,” said pollster Patrick Toomey of New River Strategies. “But their frustration is broader and more systemic, and they’re looking for something beyond either enabling Trump or simply opposing him.”
How high could a blue wave be?
The structure of the poll itself helps show how the battleground has shifted — and what a blue wave might look like. When we polled the 36 districts we ranked as competitive in April, Democrats led by six points in the generic ballot, but Trump won those districts by an average of two points.
Now, because more red districts have come online — and because more blue districts have shifted into safe territory — there are more districts in our competitive category that Trump carried by double digits and fewer districts won by Vice President Kamala Harris. That’s a sign of a playing field that has expanded deeper into GOP territory over the course of the summer.
Republicans are now compelled to defend Senate seats in Kansas and Nebraska.
Was that on your Bingo card in January?
It was on mine and I mentioned it. That said, I do not expect Democrats to win Kansas or Nebraska. But I would not be that shocked by it.
Trump’s Farm Policy
- Grain and soybean exports are down due to Trump’s trade war with China.
- Farm machinery costs are high because of tariffs.
- Diesel keeps setting new record prices every day.
- Trump offended ranchers by reducing tariffs on beef from Argentina
- Wisconsin and Michigan are losing dairy exports to Canada
- In Maine, Sue Collins had to plead with Trump over lobster wars.
Trump’s farm policies have devasted farmers. He has been a disaster to farmers, but they keep voting for him anyway.
Farm policy will help flip Ohio and Maine, and firm up Democrat support in Michigan.
If Iowa flips, it will be over farm policy, but also because Trump drove out Senator Joni Ernst.
She would have been re-elected easily.
Trump himself is the cause for the expanded playing field.
Related Posts
August 2, 2026: Don’t Be Shocked if Democrats Take Six Republican Senate Seats
Texas Eye Opener
I am not at all surprised that Paxton is trailing Talarico. Paxton is a genuine scumbag in a messy divorce proceeding for biblical grounds.
Iowa Surprise Not
Farmers have no reason to vote for Trump.
Looking Ahead
It’s not my forecast yet, but I have been discussing the possibility of a 6-seat Senate pickup by Democrats all year.
In January, that idea probably looked outright crazy to many.
September 17, 2026: Good News, 75 Percent Says Tariffs Important in Midterm Vote
Well, that’s good news, but for Democrats, not Republicans.
September 18, 2026: For the First Time, Kalshi Sees 52 Democrat Senate Seats
For those counting, that would be a pickup of five seats. Iowa on deck for six.
Conclusion
Everything has to go right for Democrats to win 6. That’s an observation, not a prediction. But it’s increasingly likely.
Plus four or more for the win is about 65 percent. Silver caught me today.
“Everything has to go right for Democrats to win 6.”
Good thing Donald Trump is working day and night to make that happen. Today’s docket was telling voters they’re dumb for not liking datacenters and trying to proclaim that AI is “super intelligence” (SI). What more could voters want out of their government than to be called a retard?
That’s right. Dumb, with a “b”. Most voters don’t know about that “b”.
Ultimately, the “blue wave” of 2026 will create a red wave of 2028. And that one holds the President. After two years of watching Democrats pass stupid socialist bills and Trump rebukes, the people will be ready for sanity in 2028.
The position of president is what we need to keep away from you angry Democrats. When you guys run Kamala again, I’m sure this time will bring the magic!
So even if blue wins, I’m sure the country will be overjoyed at the revenge politics and degradation of the legislative bodies to score-settling, rather than actually helping people.
My guess is that you vindictive democrats couldn’t care less about the country or its people. It’s just about getting Trump.
It should be fun to watch your party continue to self-destruct for two years.
“So even if blue wins, I’m sure the country will be overjoyed at the revenge politics and degradation of the legislative bodies to score-settling, rather than actually helping people.”
You mean like the GOP is currently doing on top of protecting pedophiles and performing graft in the open? Please give us some more cope, I’m ready to hear more about the “sanity” behind the Iranian ass whipping you’re getting right now. Boy it sure is funny how everything the evil Democrats are supposedly going to do is being done right now by the GOP. Any comment there? Where’d those Epstein files go?
Spoken like a true tribesman. You are correct that the dems are as bad as the repubs, but keeping the orange dipshit and his congressional sycophants in power is the worst of all options. Until we stop acting like ignorant tribes, this country will continue to go to shit.
So keep making your rationalizations about 2028 to feel better. But until we stop putting aholes on the extremes in charge because we are currently an ignorant group of tribal monkeys, dont expect any change for the better, no matter your political perspective
While more than justified based on the fundamentals, I would wait to break out the champane.
Impressive numbers.
At the very least, that poses a very interesting Fall ’26, and thereafter.
With both houses (D), especially fairly solid majorities, impeachment appears on the radar screen, with a real chance this time of sticking.
Trump has broad criminal immunity, but I’m very interested in who a net of criminal investigations might reach.
There won’t be any criminal investigations with Trump controlling the DOJ.
There may be impeachments of a number of cabinet members.
There may be withholding of funds for particular reasons as means of leveraging the courts to stop illegal spending (or lack of spending)
There may be exercise of congressional power to impose costs if subjects fail to obey subpoenas but referral to DOJ unlikely to do anything.
+4 might not be enough if Fetterman flips, which prediction markets have around 50% chance he does by 2028. Obviously it would have to happen by 2027 but the odds aren’t minimal. He could go Independent caucusing with Republicans even.
Fetterman wont flip. He votes 80% of the time with Democrats. Trump would expect more than that