Key question: Has the Trump administration thought any of this through?
Iran Rejects Trump’s Final Offer
The Washington Post reports Trump announces naval blockade of Iran after Islamabad talks yield no deal
When Vance briefed reporters shortly before leaving the Pakistani capital Sunday, he suggested the U.S. remained open to a diplomatic solution, but only if Iran accepts a proposal that he described as “our final and best offer.”
“We just could not get to a situation where the Iranians were willing to accept our terms. I think that we were quite flexible,” Vance told reporters around 6:30 a.m. local time. He did not respond to shouted questions about whether fighting would resume in what had become an increasingly unpopular and economically damaging war for Trump and the world.
Final Offer Details
Q: What was the final offer?
A: It was not detailed anywhere that I can find.
Five Point Iran Response
Five Point Response Translated
- 1/Before the negotiations, I emphasized that we have the necessary good faith and will, but due to the experiences of the two previous wars, we have no trust in the opposing side. My colleagues on the Iranian delegation Minaab168 raised forward-looking initiatives, but the opposing side ultimately failed to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation in this round of negotiations.
- 2/ America has understood our logic and principles, and now it’s time for it to decide whether it can earn our trust or not?
- 3/ We consider every mirror to be another method of authority diplomacy, alongside military struggle, for upholding the rights of the Iranian nation, and we will not for a moment cease our efforts to consolidate the achievements of the forty days of Iran’s national defense.
- 4/ I am also grateful for the efforts of our friendly and brotherly country, Pakistan, in facilitating the process of these negotiations, and I send my regards to the people of Pakistan.
- 5/ Iran is a body with 90 million souls, from all the heroic people of Iran who, following the advice of the Supreme Leader and by taking to the streets, supported their children and sent us on our way with their blessings—for this, I am grateful, and to my colleagues in these intense 21-hour negotiations, I say: well done, God strengthen you. Long live and enduring be our dear Iran!
Naval Blockade
Truth Social: So, there you have it, the meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not. Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz. At some point, we will reach an “ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT” basis, but Iran has not allowed that to happen by merely saying, “There may be a mine out there somewhere,” that nobody knows about but them. THIS IS WORLD EXTORTION, and Leaders of Countries, especially the United States of America, will never be extorted. I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas. We will also begin destroying the mines the Iranians laid in the Straits. Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL! Iran knows, better than anyone, how to END this situation which has already devastated their Country. Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti Aircraft and Radar are useless, Khomeini, and most of their “Leaders,” are dead, all because of their Nuclear ambition. The Blockade will begin shortly. Other Countries will be involved with this Blockade. Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION. They want money and, more importantly, they want Nuclear. Additionally and, at an appropriate moment, we are fully “LOCKED AND LOADED,” and our Military will finish up the little that is left of Iran! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Iran promised to open the Strait of Hormuz, and they knowingly failed to do so. This caused anxiety, dislocation, and pain to many people and Countries throughout the World. They say they put mines in the water, even though all of their Navy, and most of their “mine droppers,” have been completely blown up. They may have done so, but what ship owner would want to take the chance? There is great dishonor and permanent harm to the reputation of Iran, and what’s left of their “Leaders,” but we are beyond all of that. As they promised, they better begin the process of getting this INTERNATIONAL WATERWAY OPEN AND FAST! Every Law in the book is being violated by them. I have been fully debriefed by Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, on the meeting that took place in Islamabad through the kind and very competent leadership of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan. They are very extraordinary men, and continuously thank me for saving 30 to 50 million lives in what would have been a horrendous War with India. I always appreciate hearing that — The amount of Humanity spoken of is incomprehensible.
The meeting with Iran began early in the morning, and lasted throughout the night — Close to 20 hours. I could go into great detail, and talk about much that has been gotten but, there is only one thing that matters — IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS! In many ways, the points that were agreed to are better than us continuing our Military Operations to conclusion, but all of those points don’t matter compared to allowing Nuclear Power to be in the hands of such volatile, difficult, unpredictable people. My three Representatives, as all of this time went by, became, not surprisingly, very friendly and respectful of Iran’s Representatives, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Abbas Araghchi, and Ali Bagheri, but that doesn’t matter because they were very unyielding as to the single most important issue and, as I have always said, right from the beginning, and many years ago, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!
Apr 12, 2026, 6:53 AM
International Waters
It’s quite the hoot for Trump to be moaning “Every Law in the book is being violated by them.”
Trump bombed an Iranian school, threatened to take Greenland by force, instituted illegal reciprocal tariffs, illegally assonated foreign leaders, extorted European allies, and broke signed treaties with Canada and Mexico.
Trump is the world’s biggest liar and hypocrite. And the strait is not even an international waterway.
Key Maritime Zones & Distances
- 0–12 Nautical Miles (Territorial Sea): Sovereign territory of the coastal state.
- 12–24 Nautical Miles (Contiguous Zone): Coastal state has limited rights for customs, immigration, and taxation.
- Up to 200 Nautical Miles (Exclusive Economic Zone – EEZ): Coastal state controls economic resources (fishing, oil).
- Beyond 200 NM (High Seas): Considered international waters.
The strait is 21 nautical miles at the narrowest. Every bit is controlled by either Iran or Oman. So, there are no international waters.
There is the right of innocent passage, established under UNCLOS Articles 17–32. Innocent passage allows foreign ships to navigate through a coastal state’s territorial sea without authorization, provided it is continuous, expeditious, and not prejudicial to the state’s security. It applies to all ships, including warships, but requires submarines to navigate on the surface.
Iran signed but did not ratify UNCLOS Articles 17–32. If it did, it could just withdraw from the treaty. Since Trump can withdraw from treaties, why can’t every other nation?
Regardless, there are no international waters in play, even by right of passage, since Iran never ratified the agreement.
How Wise Is a Blockade?
By definition, nothing gets through (oil, fertilizer, natural gas, aluminum etc.).
Trump is already dealing with a massive inflation reaction to his stupid war.
A blockade will make matters worse.
The futures market reaction tonight will tell us how serious the market takes this bit of foolishness.
What About China?
How would this administration react if China sent military exports for its tankers carrying oil?
That is another key risk to this announcement.
US Intelligence Says China Will Soon Deliver Air Defense Systems to Iran
Yesterday, I commented US Intelligence Says China Will Soon Deliver Air Defense Systems to Iran
Trump responded “If China does that, China will have big problems, OK?”
But what can Trump do about it?
Trump is nothing but endless bluffs at this point.
Trump is in the self-created mess of not being able to do anything about anything without making a big mess somewhere else.
A successful blockade would increase oil prices, fertilizer prices, natural gas prices, jet fuel prices, aluminum prices etc.
And it would risk China sending military escorts or blocking rare earth minerals.
An unsuccessful blockade would make Trump look like a paper tiger.
Iran’s goal is clear. Punish Trump as much as possible regardless of internal costs. Iran will do just that.
How Will China Respond?
My guess is rare earth export controls. But it could be military escorts and export controls.
Either way, China has a checkmate alternative to any action by Trump that it doesn’t like. And China won’t like this poorly contrived military blockade idea.
If the futures don’t react negatively tonight, it’s because they think Trump is bluffing or China will force Trump to back down.
Progression of Events
- Trump starts war against advice of military experts, JD Vance, others.
- Key goal quickly becomes opening the strait that was open before the war started.
- Trump begs allies to help us open the strait
- Trump says “We don’t care if the strait is open.”
- We will “Bomb Them Back to Stone Ages” if strait not open.
- 48-hour repreive extended twice.
- “Whole Civilization Will Die Tonight” if strait is not open.
- Negotiations to open the strait.
- Negotiations fail.
- Blockade the strait to keep it shut.
Deck Stacked Against Trump
Trump has the audacity to proclaim Iran has no cards.
Realistically, it’s obvious that Trump hopes to fill an inside straight. However, the cards Trump needs have been removed from the deck.
Trump has no winning options. At this point, he is so boxed in that it’s hard to figure out what his least damaging option is.
Seriously Flabbergasted
I am seriously flabbergasted, and that takes a lot.
Look at this comment from “Vice Chair, The Carlyle Group; Chair, Rockefeller Foundation Board; PhD; ADM, USN(Ret.) fmr Supreme Allied Commander at NATO”
It is stunning that the “Vice Chair,The Carlyle Group; Chair, Rockefeller Foundation Board; PhD; ADM, USN(Ret.) fmr Supreme Allied Commander at NATO” has no idea how global markets function!
The idea that allies will be no worse off is ludicrous. Wow. Just wow. Is Trump taking advice from him?
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The war and resultant inflation is what forced capitulation by Trump.
I keep saying this over and over, and im sorry to be repetitive, but the Iranians are going to play Trump until they are sure the republicans get hammered in the midterms. My guess is that this game will go on until at least the summer, so that there is $5 gas in the USA in November.
Then the Iranians will try to negotiate with a diminished trump
Does the downvoter think somehow Trump is solving the Strait by double blocking it? I wonder how they think global trade will fare.
lol, the IRGC is holding an offsuit 9/2. They’re done.
So I take it that Trump Tacoed on his “bomb them to hell” plan. Where did that go?
So now he is blockading the blockade? So is he helping Iran to enforce their blockade? I don’t see how this helps. I guess China won’t get any oil and Iran won’t get any fees? Not sure how that helps other than to get China involved in a bigger way and it also helps Russia sell oil to Asia so that they can kill more Ukrainians.
If China sends a tanker through that strait is Trump really going to bomb it? Do you smell another Taco?
Vance has been pretty well useless in all this, both in Pakistan and in Hungary. He might as well stay home and go to church.
Shouldn’t Iran have the right to have Nuclear energy?
Shouldn’t Iran have the right to say who travels in its territorial waters?
Trump’s negotiating style is basically “give us what we want or we will kill you”. Sounds like mafia diplomacy to me except the mafia doesn’t serve up Tacos.
Unless you can or are willing to actually follow through on your threats people figure out pretty quickly that the emperor has no clothes and you look like a moron. Case in point Trump. If you consistently look like a moron then you probably are one.
Previously, we have discussed the fact that Iran did not close the Strait of Hormuz. It was the insurance companies that closed it. Then we heard that Iran was collecting tolls in its territorial waters.
All along it seemed to me that closing the strait was targeting Asian economies to deprive them of essential commodities.
Now we have the US closing the Strait…
WTF is wrong with this picture?
Plunge Protection Team is gonna have a busy night and morning trying to keep this turd of a market from taking a crap again… DOW is down 560 as I tap on the keys.
Dow futures -500. Oil up 8% over $100.
Going to be an amazing week for profits!
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/12/oil-prices-iran-war-strait-hormuz-blockade.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/12/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Remember, pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. Dont be too greedy, be nimble because you never know when the next TACO will be dished out.
Mish forgot to mention the extra-judicial murders of hundreds of so-called ‘narco-terrorists’ off the coast of Venezuela in the list of violations of U.S. laws and international laws under Trump. The U.S. is now the “Evil Empire” that it accused other countries of being in the past.
Someone in Mish’s last post made a comment that the U.S. could board ships that pass through the Strait and then prosecute the ship owners in court.
I am completely gobsmacked that a commenter is basically defending piracy and suggests the U.S. can prosecute the ship owners. What law? What court? Kangaroo court?
If the ship owner pays Iran the toll, it would be easy for a prosecutor to argue it constitutes bribery of a government official. Most countries (and many multilateral organizations like the OECD) have laws prohibiting that. In the US they could prosecute under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, though the Trump administration has substantially weakened enforcement under that law.
Lol. Hubris strikes again and again and again with this clown.
The ship owner will argue the payment is not bribery, just a government export fee, but it depends on the judges and the court, making it a risk for ship owners.
Nice to know you are a tool of the system. It’s interesting that you didn’t offer any legal perspective about the United States murdering 163 Venezuelans in boats in international waters last year
You asked a question about someone’s post and I answered it. I get that you want the answer to be different, but it’s not. The fact that I know the answer does not mean that I like the answer or that I am a tool of the system. There is risk to an oil tanker paying the toll to go through the strait and I thought I was helping you understand why that is the case.
Relax Francis. We’re all tools of the system.
But it definitely not a bribe. Extortion maybe on Irans part.
The Iranian government has set a fee to use the waterway. No fair (key word) judge would say that is a bribe.
youre not influencing a decision made by a government official, you are abiding by a law that has already been made and is being enforced.
Paying a payment (not a bribe) that the United States government doesn’t like does not implicate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.
I think the US would prosecute in court for an illegal deal with an internationally sanctioned country.
The law would be Iranian Transactions and Sanctions Act. Our courts. Supreme Court has already allowed it against foreign companies.
I was going to post an important and educational comment but then figured that it wouldn’t make any difference here.
You mean AIPAC talking points, come on we all want to hear how bad Iran is, throw in the word “nuke” a few times topped with “terrorist state” sprinkles and then tell us how Trump and Israel is right about everything and the saviors of the world.
And don’t forget “we need to free the Iranian people from the dictatorial regime!11!”
Said by the people who only want to free them when we so just so happen to be bombing them, can’t find Iran on a map, never met a Muslim that they actually liked and the only path to freedom they can think of is to bomb their bridges, historical sites and schoolchildren.
And if we have to end their fucking civilization to do it, by God it is a price we are willing to pay, (as long as the gas prices don’t get to high for to long).
Really? I would like to see that. It would be a first for you.
Sweet Loretta Martin thought she was a woman
But she was another man
All the girls around her say she’s got it coming
But she gets it while she can
Jojo bringing the “your stupid” sauce (sic)
good for you, man!
there is a russian saying: brevity is sister of talent!
What’s the point in telling us that?
So you be nicer to me in the future!
Your approach is not expected to bear fruit
It’s a lost cause.
Correct. You are both lost causes. You are both so deep down the cult rabbit hole, I doubt that you will ever recognize reality again.
Math Question:
If Iran blockades Don Tzu’s blockade
Is the result:
It should be obvious the blockade will apply additional pressure on Iran and indirectly on China (yes, I know oil is fungible). It should not escape notice that Venezuela and Iran were China’s major oil suppliers and the fact that both of them have experienced flow interruptions to China is probably not a coincidence. I know Trump speaks like a moron, but that doesn’t mean his actions are dumb. I’ve never heard anyone here mention that what Trump is likely doing is taking on the weakest link (and most “dangerous scenario”) in what Zbigniew Brzezinski called the “grand anti-hegemonic coalition of China, Russia, and perhaps Iran” in his 1997 book “The Grand Chessboard.” (Discussed on pages 54, 115 & 204). Brzezinski’s ideas derive from Mackinder and Kennan.
Yes. And six things should be equally obvious
1) It also puts pressure on trump
2) The US cannot make up for Iran’s oil output
3) China will likely retaliate against the US and can easily do so with rare earth elements
4) Pressure like this has never worked. It hardens resolve and increases negative US sentiment
5) Iran’s #1 goal is to inflict pain on Trump. It has and it will. That the US can inflict more is meaningless to Iran.
6) Iran does not have to worry about elections. Trump does.
CENTCOM has announced the US Naval blockade of the Strait will begin tomorrow at 10am Eastern Time. Unless tomorrow is Taco Monday.
This is an argument for American nuclear disarmament.
Incidentally, the US has always been the sole party who does not even want to talk about global nuclear disarmament, as promised in the NPT.
Innocent passage does not apply to parties at war.
So Iran is not breaking any convention, law, or treaty.
MAGA News Flow:
*** TRUMP doing an amazing job at opening the Strait USA! USA! USA!
*** TRUMP doing an amazing job at closing the Strait USA! USA! USA!
(Excerpt from “Don Tzu” Art Of The TACO)
If Iran says that it will not pursue if USA destroys all its nuclear material and dump all its nuclear arms, then may be Iran would do the same and give up nuclear arm in future. How will Mr. Trump react to that ?
America’s negotiating team: one American and two Israeli dual citizens
…and people don’t see this?
And Netanyahu calls the American mid-negotiation to lay down the law.
They aren’t even trying to hide the puppet strings anymore.
See Vance dance!
please !
80% of top officials in biden admin were american je11ws
The 1982 13/33 year ACWI 2026 secondary high to its 25 Feb 2026 peak valuation is in … or a trading day away. Hormuz blockading #45-47 will own the most catastrophic private-debt- dependent global equity crash in history …. His magnificent DC Arc de Trumphe (Triomphe) might need to be inverted…
ok back on topic Navy to use underwater drones to help clear Iranian mines from Strait of Hormuz
https://defensescoop.com/2026/04/11/strait-of-hormuz-mine-clearance-navy-centcom-underwater-drones/
If underwater drones can be used to remove mines then they can be used to place mines. But why bother with mines at all when underwater drones can just attack ships from beneath the water.
I’m sure the insurance companies’ hearts have already melted due to this happening.
The 2 minute video expaining why Israel and USA started the Irainian War ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kRf4FDPA5E
meanwhile from the previous thread Hungary’s Parliamentary Election results can be tracked live here. It’s looking like the Magyar people have finally had enough of Orban and his cronies.
https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026
he has conceded the election
The Trump magic touch. Tired of winning yet? Triple lol!
But they’re even more two weeks away than they were five years ago
You were screwing me. So, now I am going to SCREW ME! That’ll do it.
Great marriage advice: If you screw me I’ll screw you !
Iran rejects the regime’s final offer, and the regime rejects Iran’s final offer.
1-Star Mishelin star for clever play on words.
and now some data: Asia Bulletin: Fuel Shortage Impacts in AsiaAsia is already in trouble on account of this, that won’t go much further without something breaking.
https://www.osac.gov/Content/Report/910d11da-595a-40a4-836c-29d07d8898a0
Trumps failure is so horrific he will have to release the Epstein files to distract us from the war he started to distract us from the Epstein files!
What is a great greater crime, raping schoolgirls or blowing them up?
No, what’s worse (the worst) was Schoolgirls BLOWING TRUMP.
Hey what are the coffee morning farm boys saying about all this? You are the heartbeat of Americana around here, don’t keep us in the dark.
I’m not sure the Chinese manpad reports are not just BS to justify interdicting chinese flagged ships. Various sources have stated Iran had over 500 of them before the war started…
Let me see how this works.
Iran lets ships with oil, helium and fertilizers through the Strait, bound for China. The U.S. Navy interdicts them.
China says, gee, Mr. President, China needs that helium for our computer chip production. We need that fertilizer for vital sowing season. All chip exports to USA suspended! All food imports suspended! We’ll throw in rare earth exports so you know we can play your stupid games too.
Trump then posts on Truth Social that China-bound ships will not be blockaded after all, and boasts “we made a very good deal! They caved!”
Iran lets ships with fertilizers, helium, LNG and oil through to India, EU ….
Rinse and repeat.
Trump = stupid. It is now clear: we have a stupid President.
Knowing that, what do we do?
Hide the nukes and the football!! Now!
Did you even think before you typed the illogical idea that China will complain that the blockade will stop the fertiliser it needs so to punish the US it will suspend food imports?
No fertiliser imports and no food imports equals unrest in China and that is something the CCP fears.
Can any promise or agreement made by Iran be trusted? They have lied about the range of their missiles, they have boasted that they want to develop a nuclear bomb and if they get the bomb they can threaten anywhere. Not comfortable with the threat of Iran bombing the High Dam or my city (my apartment is in walking distance of the parliament and the presidential palace). And for you it wouldn’t be hard to get a bomb on a ship and sail it to the US.
Food is fungible and can easily be sourced elsewhere.
All the lies you enumerate are not factually correct.
Certainly they have not boasted about developing a bomb or threatening anybody. Just the opposite — there is a fatwa against bombs and weapons of mass destruction, which they upheld even in very trying circumstances in the war by Iraq and chemical weapons visited upon them by American proxy.
See Russia as the largest producer of wheat then look to Argentina, Australia, Argentina and Brazil for China to be covered. Indias rice crop is another story…
No fertiliser imports and no food imports equals unrest in China and that is something the CCP fears.
==
jesus! you are a mor1on
=1 country in world for exporting fertiliser /food/energy is Russia!
YOU DO MATH. american uneducated peasant!
Trump is not stupid.
He is trapped in his own mind.
Time for the 25th.
His postings are more than enough evidence to any dispassionate observer that he is not of sound mind.
What do we do now? Every American should should demand that their representitives in congress Impeach and Convict Trump now.
It’s not the best idea, but it is the only choice.
The US navy does not have resources to interdict more than a handful of boats at a time. Iran has the ability to add additional mines which are devestating to single hull boats (the kind the US Navy have). The new version of US minesweepers (LCS) have been a disaster in previous testing in that region. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
Silliness.
Trump announced a blockade.
Let Trump have ownership now of the strait being closed.
Jimmy Kimmel will have a field day with that when gasoline goes up another $2/ gallon.
Mine-sweeping has been largely delegated to NATO allies, part of a labor specialization strategy.
But there isn’t even any definitive evidence on the deployment of mines.
Twice in the past two weeks I have tried to edit a comment I had just posted and that caused the site to flag it as spam. Just now all I was doing was adding quotation marks. The last time it happened the post never ended up appearing, even though it was a totally normal post and most definitely not spam. I guess I won’t try to edit posts in the future.
Since you cannot delete, just edit the text to be something innocuous, and start a new post. It’s a little primitive.
Don’t complain too much, if I have to log in here by logging into my Gmail account and going through a bunch of captchas, I’m out.
Also look at that loser wolf street guys blog, if you disagree with him, you get blocked. He’s got nothing but sycophants in his comments and it sucks,shitty little fiefdom run by a used car salesman
I wasn’t complaining. I thought Mish might want to know a detail about his comment section, and his spam filter.
I just wonder why editing a post by adding quotation marks to a sentence would cause it to be flagged, but yes, I can come up with a work around, and yours sounds like a good one.
While Trump was lying and bullsh1tting about Iran, Xi had a hot date with that Taiwan gal.
The delayed summit is likely to be delayed again…
A.I. question….How does someone manage a losing hand? ….Will Trump ignore this?
Search Assist….. When playing a losing hand, Focus on minimizing your losses and avoid making Impulsive Decisions that could worsen your situation. It’s important to stay calm, manage your expectations……..Well so far it seems the Donald is doing exactly the opposite strategy which is not a surprise to most aware observers. Seems the Donald now badly requires a Divine Intervention soon –along with Nuttinyouhoo…. Heaven Help Us
Ask A.I. how to bluff. (for the 36th time?)
Good summary of the ridiculous situation that never should have occurred to begin with.
With the exception that export controls went on rare earths and strategic metals by China on the 2nd of January. This includes all US military contractors and any company that sells to US military contractors.
Excludes magnets for EV’s and a few other things.
Silver is also now considered a strategic metal by China and US inventories have fallen at the COMEX.
I hope Europe does not join the blockade.
I am not so confident about what will happen next. So far Iran has proven it could still launch missile / rockets and block the strait.
If the us succeed in destroying the Iran military and opening the strait by force then maybe they win.
That will probably include lost ships and casualties
Zero chance of Europe blockading oil and NG that it needs
Actually, Europe’s dependence on Gulf oil is surprisingly small.
LNG is a bigger concern, but problem now is not just transport but production.
BREAKING: Orban no win
BREAKING: Trump to pause the blockade before markets open on Monday, then re-implement the blockade 4:01pm Friday. 😉
Don’t forget the US illegally blockade of Cuba
And holding hostages in Gitmo for 25 years.
There’s only one way for Iran to extract reparations from the habitual thieves of Oceania. That’s to collect it themselves.
When the defendants refuse to abide by the rule of law bland speak only the language of force, the plaintiffs must do it themselves by force.
Trump is playing his usual 18-D chess, fools:
“In order to end the blockade that did not exist before the brief Iran excursion began, the USA will now blockade the Strait of Hormuz, which will of course result in the removal of the Iranian blockade, because they are now blockaded! Only a true genius like me could come up with this winning plan!”
I am in awe at this development. I don’t see how this fails to bring about the most victorious victory in the history of all victories. For Iran.
Just got a secret message from Q….”Trust the plan”
I just queried duckduckgo’s AI to learn that the UAE relies on traffic through the Straits of Hormuz for 90% of food supply. UAE is host to 8.6 million foreign guest workers comprising 87.9 percent of the population.
Imagine the chaos that will shortly ensue.
Fortunately, there are other ways that food can get to their people.
————–
AI Overview
Food can reach the UAE while bypassing the Strait of Hormuz by using eastern ports on the Gulf of Oman, such as Port of Fujairah and Khor Fakkan, which have specialized food storage facilities and act as strategic, safe-haven alternatives. Other key methods include utilizing trucking from Oman’s ports or leveraging land routes from the Red Sea.
Have you considered Operation “TrumpLift”
Details coming soon from Kushner
The countries more at risk are Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain. Even in those countries though, so far there hasn’t been total shortages, its been more of an issue of large price hikes for increased transportation costs, particularly on perishable items like fruit and vegetables. Medicines are another category which are no longer being shipped in via the strait, but these are higher value, smaller volume items that are now arriving by air. The biggest risk remains the desalination plants and water–you just aren’t going to be able to bring that much water in by land or air.
Probably a block of Chinese and Russian arms.
unless one look at map and see sea border russia/iran
alx
This is what trump should say:
“Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti Aircraft and Radar are useless, Khomeini, and most of their “Leaders,” are dead, all because I raped young girls.” “Israel has proof and I can’t let that proof be shown to the world.”
So operation “Epstein Fury” must continue.
the cards as I see them.
Iran has an Ace high straight.
Trump and Netanyahu only make a pair.
Anyway, I was surprised Trump didnt do this sooner. Every Iranian ship leaving the Gulf was a humiliation for him.
=Iran has an Ace high straight.
well life of avg. Iranian is not fun! so hold off that ‘ Ace high straight.’
Time to top off the gas tank before they raise prices again.
It will make little difference, this is going to be going on for a long time. I’m already really worried about my heating oil bill this coming winter.
exactly.
The Iran war is causing a surge in EV vehicles – the big winner China!
https://time.com/article/2026/04/08/how-the-iran-war-is-pushing-more-people-to-buy-evs/
And Trump policies essentially killing the EV industry in the US. The ironing is delicious.
I don’t think China is what you would call “a big winner” in all of this. The U.S. is in a proxy war with China. I think that should be evident to most people. I posted this in another topic but since you think the war is benefiting China, I wanted to repost it here because I enjoy reading it so much as does anyone living in Taiwan. The last line says it all: “Their $400 billion ‘strategic partnership’ is currently a $400 billion pile of rubble.”
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Gemini AI:
While Beijing is often viewed as a master of playing both sides, the physical destruction of infrastructure in Iran has wiped out years of Chinese investment and strategic planning.
Here is what was destroyed that China likely views as a significant loss:
1. The “Ghost Fleet” and Oil Storage
China’s primary benefit from Iran was access to cheap, sanctioned oil.
The Loss: On March 9, 2026, strikes destroyed roughly 30 large oil storage tanks and much of the port infrastructure at Kharg Island (Iran’s primary oil export terminal).
Why it matters to China: China was buying roughly 1.4 million barrels per day at a $9–$10 discount. With these facilities burning or dismantled, China can no longer receive that volume of “budget” energy, forcing them onto the global market where prices have spiked past $120 per barrel.
2. The Belt and Road “Keystone” (Rail and Logistics)
China viewed Iran as the central “land bridge” connecting Central Asia to Europe and the Middle East, bypassing sea lanes controlled by the U.S. Navy.
The Loss: Strategic nodes of the Qom-Yiwu rail link and logistics hubs near Tehran (including Mehrabad Airport’s logistics wings) were targeted.
Why it matters to China: China spent billions attempting to make Iran a stable corridor for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The war has proven that “connectivity cannot be insulated from geopolitics.” The Iranian corridor is now considered unusable or high-risk, forcing China to revert to longer, more expensive maritime routes or less-developed routes through Central Asia.
3. Tech and 5G Infrastructure
A major part of the 2021 “25-year cooperation agreement” involved China installing 5G networks and surveillance tech throughout Iran.
The Loss: Strikes on IRGC command-and-control centers and “dual-use” telecommunications hubs have physically destroyed significant amounts of Chinese-made hardware (Huawei and Hikvision equipment).
Why it matters to China: This wasn’t just about selling gear; it was about standard-setting. China wanted Iran to be a showcase for a “Chinese-standard” internet. Instead, those investments are now scrap metal, and Iran lacks the funds to pay China back for the original installations.
4. Coastal and Naval Presence
While not “bombed” in the traditional sense, China’s ability to use Iranian ports as a “soft” naval presence has been shattered.
The Loss: Reports from March 2026 show that nearly 92% of Iran’s large naval vessels were sunk, and ports like Chabahar (though the Indian-operated terminal was spared) saw their military and naval expansion facilities destroyed.
Why it matters to China: China had been eyeing these ports for potential “dual-use” (commercial and military) bases. With the Iranian Navy essentially deleted and the ports under constant surveillance/threat, any Chinese “presence” there is now a liability rather than a benefit.
In short, while China might “benefit” later by being the only country willing to lend money for reconstruction, they have lost the stable, functioning partner they needed to challenge U.S. influence in the region. Their $400 billion “strategic partnership” is currently a $400 billion pile of rubble.
Your point? And US investments in Saudi Arabia, uAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Israel etc are not piles of rubble?
I haven’t read anything that would compare the damage to China that I listed to whatever U.S. investments in the Middle East that you’re referring to. My point is what I said that this is every bit a war with China albeit not explicitly stated as such as it is with Iran. The U.S. needs to weaken China now to avoid a direct conflict in the future over Taiwan.
Media suppresses all kinds of reporting.
Cent-com and the president lie all the time.
Israel is under military censorship.
UAE and Saudi have drastic measures.
Point 1: China not getting oil from Iran.
Lol! China has still been receiving 1-1.2 million barrels per day from Iran throughout the war. And still at agreed pricing of $50-60 per barrel.
Since point 1 is so inaccurate, I would question them all.
You think China’s importation of oil has been unaffected by the war and I assume you think it will remain unaffected no matter what the U.S. does.
AI Overview
The Iran war has significantly affected China’s oil imports by disrupting supply lines through the Strait of Hormuz and raising costs. While China remains a major recipient of Iranian crude, the 40-day U.S.-Israeli air campaign has forced tanker, disruptions, forced the use of covert, high-cost shadow fleets, and created severe energy shortages, forcing some Chinese refineries to reduce operating rates.
Key impacts on China’s oil imports include:
Supply Disruptions: Attacks in the Gulf and threats to close the Strait of Hormuz have halted or slowed shipping, complicating the arrival of Iranian oil.
High-Cost “Shadow Fleet”: While shipments have continued via a “shadow fleet” and disguised as originating from other locations (e.g., Malaysia), the logistics are increasingly difficult and risky, say experts at Kharon.
Surging Costs: The conflict has raised global oil prices above per barrel, significantly increasing the cost of energy for China, which is the world’s largest oil importer.
Strategic Vulnerability: The conflict has highlighted that 40% of China’s oil passes through the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz.
Refinery Struggles: Independent “teapot” refineries in China, which buy much of this oil, are facing reduced margins due to higher prices and logistics disruptions.
Your problem is you are focusing on Hormuz. China is still receiving over 1 mbpd from Iran through Hormuz.
What you seem to be unaware of is that China has been receiving MORE imported oil since the war began; not less. They have received over 10 million barrels from Saudi via the Red Sea already this month. They have also increased imports from Brazil.
China bound VLCCs are bypassing Hormuz and heading to the Red Sea where they have contracted for another 35 mb this month.
They are still growing their SPR while everyone else in the world is drawing their SPRs down.
Regarding teapots, China’s refiners have been forced to reduce production because the government has banned exports of most refined products in order to hoard the oil. Teapots would be happy to pay $130/bbl for oil and export the refined products for $200+. But the government won’t let them.
The general theme of what I’ve been posting today in two topics is that this is an indirect war with China and it will have an effect, which is obvious by the list I provided in both topics. The information I’m posting and what you are writing about can both be true. China is trying to compensate, but over time it could have a more profound effect depending on how determined the U.S. is in weakening China to avoid a direct conflict over Taiwan. And I would think most people would want that to happen, why would anyone want a strong communist regime in China, except the communists living in China. Over 90% of Chinese people are not communists.
One more tidbit of information:
AI Overview
As of late 2024, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has over 100 million members, representing about 7-8% of China’s 1.4 billion population. While the CCP is the sole governing party controlling all aspects of life, the vast majority of Chinese citizens (over 90%) are not members.
It’s okay to want a better world.
It’s okay to dream and hope for regime change in Iran and China.
Just be prepared to be disappointed when it doesn’t happen.
I notice you don’t mention that the US needs a regime change as well to improve the lives of the average American. Where is your concern for the folks in America? Because our current regime is screwing us all.
If I had the power that the president had, I would be trying to use that power to undermine tyrannical regimes around the world, whether they were in Latin America, Cuba, the Middle East, or China. And I would be trying to bring in investments into the U.S. to help the economy and secure the border and try to help the people in Latin America so there would be no need to try to escape from their countries looking for a better life. I would also make the voting system in this country as secure as the banking system and empower police departments all around the country to protect people from crime. I could go on as we all could with our wish list for things we’d like to see implemented. My vote goes to any person who holds those same beliefs, if Trump agrees with those things, I’ll support him, if he holds the opposite beliefs than I wouldn’t support him. And I’ll do the same thing in 2028.
If you want to undermine tyranny, I suggest you start in the USA with the current administration.
Where is your self-righteous empathy for the people who live here under Trump’s tyranny?
Do you want the opposite of those things I listed to occur which would be the following:
1. Stronger tyrannical regimes in Latin America, like Venezuela before Maduro was removed, or in Cuba, Iran, and China.
2. Reduced investment in the U.S.
3. An unsecured U.S. border.
4. A voting system that is not secure from fraud.
5. Weakened police forces and more crime.
I vote for people who have the same policies that I would have if I had the power of the presidency. I don’t know why anyone would be against those things. And I don’t watch CNN or MSNBC or any of the mainstream media so I’m not familiar with this U.S. tyranny that you refer to. The previous administration was terrible in my opinion, wouldn’t want to return to that.
I don’t live in those countries. And I have no business imposing my will on the people living in those countries. Only a sanctimonious fool would attempt to do that.
If you want to make a difference, I suggest you start at home, and fight the tyranny in our own country. But that isn’t going to happen, is it?
You are clearly a MAGA cult fool who worships at Trump’s feet.
You should be ashamed of yourself, pretending to have empathy for others.
I suggest you forget this economics blog and go find the racist blogs where you belong.
That’s your reply? That’s the best you can do regarding the question I wrote previously. You think we live in a tyranny right now, you obviously have no idea what a real tyranny is. You have your own opinion and I have mine, why can’t people here just accept that not everybody is going to agree with them. Do you really like living in an echo chamber: Trump is stupid, MAGA is stupid, they’re racists, they’re dumb, Taco, Taco, Taco, they don’t know what they’re doing, and on and on and on. Adults usually can have a conversation without resorting to name calling because that’s the only thing they can think of to say. Fine, you don’t want to help people in other countries, and I’d like to think it’s possible not necessarily by warfare but by other means, such as undermining their power, or their economy or other methods.
Here’s some information about Ronald Reagan and that type of effort, who you probably don’t like either.
1. Ideological Conviction
Reagan was a staunch anti-communist. He famously labeled the Soviet Union an “Evil Empire” in 1983. To Reagan, the Cold War wasn’t just a geopolitical chess match; it was a moral struggle between liberty and totalitarianism. He believed that communism was inherently unstable and destined for the “ash heap of history.”
2. “Peace Through Strength”
Reagan believed that the U.S. had become militarily weak during the 1970s. He initiated a massive military buildup to regain leverage. The logic was simple: by outspending and out-innovating the Soviets, the U.S. would force them to the negotiating table from a position of weakness.
SDI (Star Wars): The Strategic Defense Initiative was a proposed space-based missile defense system. While technologically ambitious, it terrified the Soviet leadership because they knew they couldn’t afford to match it.
3. Economic Warfare
The Reagan administration recognized that the Soviet economy was fragile and overly dependent on oil exports. They worked to:
Drive down oil prices to starve the USSR of hard currency.
Restrict technology transfers to prevent the Soviets from modernizing their military and industry.
Force an arms race that the inefficient Soviet command economy simply could not sustain.
4. The Reagan Doctrine
Instead of just stopping the spread of communism, the Reagan Doctrine sought to “roll back” Soviet influence by supporting anti-communist insurgencies (the “freedom fighters”) in places like Afghanistan, Nicaragua, and Angola. This forced the USSR to bleed resources and manpower in “forever wars.”
Summary of Strategy: “We Win, They Lose”
When asked about his Cold War strategy in 1977, Reagan told his future National Security Advisor, Richard Allen:
“My theory of Cold War is that we win and they lose. What do you think of that?”
By the time Mikhail Gorbachev took power in 1985, the Soviet Union was so economically exhausted and technologically behind that it was forced to implement the reforms (Glasnost and Perestroika) that eventually led to its collapse in 1991.
Yes. That is my reply.
Your are a self-righteous hypocrite who wants to impose her will on others. And you support a genocidal maniac. Why would I want to discuss anything with you? You are a waste of my time.
Can you give the condescending insults a rest, we have a difference of opinion, so what, learn to live with it. Not everyone has to agree with each other, you can express your views and let others have their opinions. You don’t see me writing to people saying things like you stupid, vacuous fool, who lives his cushy safe life running around talking about idiotic things like U.S. tyranny while selfishly ignoring the real tyranny in the world. Just do me a favor and don’t write to me in the future if you can’t handle a different point of view than your own.
And all the while China spent most of their money on improving the living conditions of their people. The results are evident, China is becoming the worlds leading economy and their people are enjoying much improved living standards and will soon, if they haven’t already, surpass the US.
Here’s a book you might be interested in to get a more realistic view of China. The following is the introduction to the book.
———————————–
Killed to Order: China’s Organ Harvesting Industry and the True Nature of America’s Biggest Adversary – New York Times Bestseller
A crime the Chinese regime can no longer deny—Forced Organ Harvesting.
What if everything you need to understand about the Chinese Communist Party—and how the free world should respond to it—could be explained through this one issue?
In this urgent and eye-opening book, journalist Jan Jekielek distills decades of investigations from reputable sources, combined with his own research and in-depth firsthand insight, into a compelling case for rethinking our approach to the CCP. Through the lens of grave human rights abuses—most disturbingly, the state-sanctioned harvesting of organs from prisoners of conscience—Jekielek exposes the inner workings of a regime built on deception, coercion, and control. Killed to Order: The Organ Harvesting Industry of China and the True Nature of America’s Biggest Adversary reveals why continuing to misunderstand the CCP poses a growing threat to global freedom.
So pedophilia is OK with you. Lying, cheating, fraud and stealing are all good with you. Mentally ill politicians, OK with you. A POTUS without an ounce of empathy or sympathy is OK with you. Please never vote in the US again.
The AI generated slop can say whatever it wants but world trade has been reorganizing around Asia, Europe and Latin America. There are more BYD shops in Latin America and everyone’s driving those cars around and it will only grow due to Trump’s stupidity.
But feel free to believe whatever you want, it won’t make any difference to me, I follow the money and profits.
Whatever you’re trying to say, does not contradict what I wrote, it might upset you for some reason, maybe you want a stronger China and Iran. Why you would I don’t know. Here’s some more information about money and profits. What the U.S. created can also be reversed once the decision is made. The Chinese people should be freed from their communist regime just as the Persian people should be freed from their overlords.
AI Overview
U.S. policies and investment significantly helped drive China’s economic growth starting in the 1980s by allowing them to integrate into global markets, providing crucial foreign direct investment (FDI), and providing immense consumer demand. While China’s own economic reforms were the primary driver, U.S. companies helped turn China into a global manufacturing hub.
Key elements of this economic relationship included:
Manufacturing Expansion: Foreign investment, particularly from U.S. companies aiming to reduce costs, flowed into China, which built factories and created jobs,
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Cumulative FDI in China rose to nearly U.S. billion in 1994, with annual inflows increasing from less than 1% of total fixed investment in 1979 to 18% in 1994.
Trade Access: As an export-oriented economy, China depended on the U.S. as a major market for its goods, helping boost China’s trade and productivity.
Technology Transfer: Through joint ventures, China absorbed and adapted foreign technologies, aiding its industrial growth.
It is not my business to want a strong or weak anything, we are all humans living on this rock spinning around the sun. You clearly are a demented MAGA likely thoroughly brainwashed by some cult religion.
What do I want? To make a living, have a high quality of life (by my standards), and MIND MY OWN F**KING BUSINESS.
Why don’t you give us your full manifesto (and skip the AI slop) of what you want. Freedom for China and Iran? How are YOU going to accomplish that without involving me or my taxpaying money?
Buy a ticket to China or Iran and start screaming about freedom and rights, let us know how far you get. You may discover that not everyone around the world wants what you want.
Hungary just dumped Oraban, you know who did that? The people there decided they wanted changed and they implemented it. If the people of China or Iran want change they will implement it.
MIND YOUR OWN FRACKING BUSINESS.
If you get so hysterical when someone replies to you, then simply don’t write to them. Maybe you’re not aware of this, but generally if you reply to someone on a forum then they might actually reply back to you, so it’s best not to write to them, then no one will say anything that might upset you.
I’m here to digest Mish’s economic and political analysis and use the info to optimize my investments and make greater profits.
I normally stick to that but then the noise becomes so horrendous here with some commenters that I have to step in to point out how dumb it is which usually causes most people to come to their senses.
Of course it doesn’t work with deeply brainwashed MAGA cult members so we’ll know where you stand soon enough.
Asian markets and oil futures open soon so I’ll need to focus 😉
Just make it a habit to not read what I write or reply to me and you’ll be fine. We have one thing in common, I’m trading the index futures right now too.
Lets say the reverse happened. The US received all these benefits from China what would our living standards look like? Our corporations and elite would have kept the profits. No high speed trains, no healthcare for all, no free university education just more of the same elites taking it all.
Did you miss this in your AI slop?
“While China’s own economic reforms were the primary driver,”
AI slop is not an argument and will not be dignified with a response.
so now WE’RE blocking the strait which will prevent all oil from getting thorugh? i get the tactic here, but setting fire to your house so your asshole roommate( China) will pressure your other asshole roommate to behave (Iran) is really risky.
You are assuming that taco actually thinks rather than reacts? He probably uses a “paint by numbers set.”
The way things are going, I get the feeling that Trump is going to take the oil one way or another. I didn’t know until recently that he had been talking about this decades ago so it’s nothing new for him. I wonder if he thinks that even if they impeach him, assuming the Dems win both the House and Senate in the midterms that he has until that time to do what he wants because no one can stop him. He’s spent his entire life usually getting what he wants, billions of dollars, the presidency twice, so with that track record he might not care what other people think of his actions if he believes what he’s doing is right.
——————————————-
Gemini AI:
The 1988 “Guardian” Interview:
In a 1988 interview with The Guardian (conducted by Polly Toynbee), Trump was asked how he would handle Iran during the final stages of the Iran-Iraq War. His response was remarkably specific to Kharg Island:
“I’d be harsh on Iran. They’ve been beating us psychologically, making us look like a bunch of fools. One bullet shot at one of our men or ships and I’d do a number on Kharg Island. I’d go in and take it.”
The 1987 “20/20” Interview:
A year earlier, in a December 1987 interview with Barbara Walters on ABC’s 20/20, he argued that the U.S. was protecting oil tankers in the Persian Gulf for free while getting “kicked around” by the Iranian regime.
His Proposal: He suggested the U.S. should “grab one of their big oil installations” and keep it to recoup the costs of American military protection in the region.
The Quote: “You go in… you take the oil. Let Iran fight their own war. You take their oil.”
Why it’s in the news now:
The reason you’re likely seeing this 38-year-old quote is that it has become a “blueprint” for the current 2026 war.
The Bombing of Kharg: On March 13, 2026, the U.S. military carried out significant strikes on military targets on Kharg Island (which handles about 90% of Iran’s oil exports).
The Ultimatum: President Trump recently posted on Truth Social that if the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately reopened, the U.S. will “obliterate” the remaining infrastructure on Kharg Island, essentially following through on the rhetoric he first voiced in 1988.
It’s a rare case of a political figure maintaining an identical—and very specific—strategic position for nearly four decades. For Trump, Kharg Island has always been seen as Iran’s “cash register,” and his strategy has remained: if they break the rules, you take the register.
And he’s also talked about grabbing them by the p***y and sleeping with his own daughter so I guess he might follow through with all his brags….
I think he might follow through and take the oil, not sure how it’s going to be done, but I’d say there was at least a 50/50 chance that the U.S. ends up controlling Kharg Island and Iran’s oil production. But I could be wrong, it just seems like it’s going in that direction. At some point the IRGC will not be able to produce new weapons or even be able to pay their military.
Yes. You are wrong.
If you want Trump to take Iran’s oil it would require the US to occupy Iran with a few hundred thousand US troops. For as long as you are taking the oil. Thousands of our troops would die.
Perhaps you are okay with that.
I didn’t say I wanted the U.S. to take Iran’s oil, I said that from what I’ve read and the feeling I have about the direction this is going that it may happen. My empathy is always with the people living under a dictatorial regime, but we’ve learned from Iraq that even with good intentions to free people the result could be the complete opposite of what you would hope would happen. The Middle East is a mess, the only bright spot is that most of the Arab countries seem to be on the side of the U.S. and Iran’s regime seems to be hated by everyone over there. How do you help people while at the same time not put your own troops in harms way, I don’t know and that is always the problem that leaders are left with and that’s why usually nothing happens to remove these regimes. The people who live there must just accept it because when they try to fight back they are slaughtered because no one from the outside tries to help them.
I do not know what you are reading.
I do not know what you are “feeling”.
I DO know that a lot of it doesn’t make much sense.
What part doesn’t make sense to you, wanting to help people living under a dictatorial regime, is that so difficult for you to understand.
Ah, another internet expert who cares so much about the people we murder.
You apparently learned nothing from Iraq, Libya and Syria.
I wrote about Iraq in one of my previous replies and how there seems to be no answer to these problems.
There is an easy solution, the US should surrender, withdraw all troops from around the world, make restitution, mind it’s own business and leave other countries alone.
Nope.
You said that that Trump was going after the oil. That didn’t make sense to me.
Your empathy for people. That makes perfect sense to me.
I said I thought that might be the end result, but not that I was for or against it. I always put myself in the place of people living in these countries be it China or Iran and I know that I would be hoping that someone would help us be free from the regimes that control us. But at the same time how can we help or any country help when we’re putting our own troops in harm’s way. That’s always been the problem. So I have mixed feelings about all of this. How do you accomplish one thing while keeping your own troops safe? The only possibility is trying to weaken the regimes as much as possible and helping the people inside those countries rise up and overthrow their governments.
I repeat. You said Trump was going after the oil. I said that made no sense.
Then you come back with your empathy for the people. Which has nothing to do with what I said.
How many more times do you want to do this dance?
I thought we finished the conversation. I just went back and reread the back-and-forth discussion. I think it’s clear now, you first thought I wanted Trump to take the oil and perhaps I was okay with thousands of troops dying, so then I had to explain myself to which you wrote paraphrasing, “I don’t know what you’re reading, feeling, but it doesn’t make sense.” So then I had to explain again and after that maybe I misunderstood one of your later replies. In retrospect it might have been better for me to just say at the beginning, no that’s not what I said, and leave it at that. It would save a lot of typing. : ) No need to write back, I understand what you’re saying.
OK good, how are you going to help the people of the USA who are living under this dictatorial regime? Would you suggest a revolution or an insurrection? What may be required in the end is the blood of patriots although my hope is that just a vote this November will be required.
there are plenty of land routes to both Russia and China. The IRGC is adept at smuggling.
I’d imagine the West economies break before they do.
Also, with China restrictions on rare earth elements, we maybe the 1 unable to produce new weapons.
it will be ugly.
It’s not called a position
It’s known as a fixation; idée fixe; hang-up; preoccupation.
Trump is now working for the Iranians, closing the straight for them.
Well there’s a reason he keeps saying “Praise Allah!”
Just wait till all those thirsty F150’s and Silverados start getting parched and their favorite elixir costs $10/gallon! Trump is gonna need Allah more than ever!
Maybe he will take a ride through Dallas.
What brand of pretzels did Dumbya almost choke to death on?
So now the world sees it’s not Iran holding the straits closed, it’s America. How does Trump see this playing out aside from creating a global coalition to sit us down for the long term future? Now instead of just a laughing stock we’re going to be made into a rump state.
Funny. Trump demands that Iran open the Strait and stop charging tolls on ships. Yet he is okay with tolls on ships as long as it’s the US collecting the tolls.
And he is now okay with using the USN to fully close off the strait so nothing gets in or out.
This further screws our Persian Gulf allies who cannot ship anything, and the entire global economy, which needs so much of what comes out of the Gulf.
We live in interesting times. I look forward to the trading opportunities Trump will provide this week.
About those tolls:
UNCLOS Article 26 — Charges
Coastal States may not charge ships for passage itself.
They may charge for:
From Copilot
For Trump it’s rules for thee but not me.
Papa, now that I have more time on my hands I’d like to learn to trade stocks. The only ones I’m really interested in are oil/gas. Is there a book or resource that you would recommend? I think the simplest strategy would be to always maintain 50% cash and maybe allow that to go to 25-75% under extra ordinary conditions. Thank you for any help!
Sorry. I am self taught and not a very sophisticated trader.
Perhaps MPO can recommend some books.
My normal cash position is 20-30% but is currently 50% due to heightened uncertainty and markets being at historically high valuations.
Pure day traders start and end each day with 100% cash. And they use sophisticated software and multiple screens. They often spend most of their day in front of their screens. That’s not me.
I make most of my trades from my phone while I am busy living my life. Though I record everything on spreadsheets when I have time.
The most important investing lesson I have learned is to not be over confident in your abilities. No one knows what the future holds.
Best of luck!
That’s great advice, thank you so much! I’m now semi-retired and not really looking for a new profession, just wanting to take advantage of the fluctuations much like you are.
It’s not just what comes out.
The Gulf states are absolutely dependent for food & water for supplies to come IN.
I already have tears in my eyes from the pain and suffering this will cause all over the world but I have a glean in my eye from all the profits that can be made for the well-positioned investor.
There’s a reason I created a new tag line and it becomes truer every single day.
Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™
And the old classic:
It’s Trump turtles all the way down and inflation all the way up!™
But you know what, I really miss the MAGA morons coming here to defend Trump. Where did they all go? Did they finally get tired of so much winning? Double Lol!
Trump is trying everything to find an offramp so he can be seen as having a success. This has got to be the dumbest idea so far from this administration … it would seem that it is exactly what the Iranians want …
Trump has to be the most ignorant man on the planet. Closing the Straight of Hormuz, which Iran has already largely closed, will do severe damage the global economy, particularly our allies in Europe and the Far East. Oil is priced globally, so US consumers will pay more as well. Iran has far greater ability to hold out than does Trump. The global economic damage and uproar will be vicious, and only get worse over time. Trump will be under great pressure. Of course we all know what a decisive and sober minded decision maker Trump is.
It is reported that negations were going well until Vance received a call from Netanyahoo, who overrode Trump and demanded a more belligerent stance. Is there any doubt at this point that Epstein provided Mossad with blackmail evidence of Trump child rape? Otherwise, there is no way that even an increasingly demented Trump would let Israel destroy his presidency.
Sad to say this situation is all downhill from here.
Notice one thing missing: Trump can insult, slander or vilify anyone he wants, whenever he wants. He can refuse to do pretty much anything he dislikes. However, there seems to be one authority he is very respectful of and obeys absolutely.
That is Netanyahu. Yes, sir..right away sir ! We can speculate as to why this is so. As it is, it appears that the world is being pushed into WWIII by three corrupt men – Trump who faces Epstein evidence, Netanyahu who faces corruption conviction and Zelensky who is a dead man walking if the war ever ends. The people dying for these 3? Too bad, so sad.
Didn’t you get the memo?
America has more than enough oil & gas to supply the world.
Why are people even buying from these Arabs?
They can get it cheaper in the good ‘ole USA.
Oh what a lovely war.
Excellent post Mish!
Thanks
that Iranian (? persian) post is amazing nice.