Trump is already backing down from “deport them all” madness, but let’s discuss the question anyway.
The Economic Benefit
The Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) estimates the costs saving of deport them all at $150.7 billion annually.
FAIR Highlights
- At the start of 2023, the net cost of illegal immigration for the United States – at the federal, state, and local levels – was at least $150.7 billion.
- FAIR arrived at this number by subtracting the tax revenue paid by illegal aliens – just under $32 billion – from the gross negative economic impact of illegal immigration, $182 billion.
- In 2017, the estimated net cost of illegal migration was approximately $116 billion. In just 5 years, the cost to Americans has increased by nearly $35 billion.
- Illegal immigration costs each American taxpayer $1,156 per year ($957 after factoring in taxes paid by illegal aliens).
- Each illegal alien or U.S.-born child of illegal aliens costs the U.S. $8,776 annually.
- Evidence shows that tax payments by illegal aliens cover only around a sixth of the costs they create at all levels in this country.
- A large percentage of illegal aliens who work in the underground economy frequently avoid paying any income tax at all.
- Many illegal aliens actually receive a net cash profit through refundable tax credit programs.
FAIR Calculations
FAIR’s calculations are based on an estimate of “at least 15.5 million illegal alien residents as of the beginning of 2022.”
The Office of Homeland Security put the 2022 number at 11.0 million.
In summary, the Office of Homeland Security Statistics (OHSS) estimates 11.0 million unauthorized immigrants were living in the United States on January 1, 2022, down from 11.6 million in 2010 and up from 10.5 million in January 2020. This increase ends a declining trend from January 2016 to January 2020 or 2021.3 Forty-four percent of unauthorized immigrants in 2022 were from Mexico, compared to 59 percent in 2010 and 55 percent in 2015. Seventy-nine percent entered prior to January of 2010 and 42 percent resided in California or Texas.
So, right off the bat we can see FAIR is 40 percent higher than other numbers, including Homeland Security.
Of the total alleged $150.7 billion cost, over $100 billion was state and local. How much of this is California? Illinois? Unfortunately FAIR did not say.
Is it the role of Federal Government to set tax policy for big blue states?
If California and Illinois want to spend money unwisely, there is nothing Congress can do about it.
So, let’s concern ourselves with the alleged $50 billion annually in Federal expenses.
One way to address this is cut off Federal money and let the states deal with it. And Trump has done that with actions to limit federal payments for illegal immigrants.
FAIR did not take that into consideration.
Eligible to Be Mass Deported
Chart source is unknown but it matches many AI reports I did for a quick check.
California has 2 million eligible deportations, Texas 1.7 million, Florida 0.9 million, New York 0.6 million, and Illinois 0.4 million.
Those are the top five states. Assume that is a bit light if you want, I am only interested in relative numbers for discussion of the chart.
Please note which of those states have serious economic issues. Surprise, surprise! It’s California, New York, and Illinois.
Woke policies create big problems. But is huge illegal immigration was a big issue in and of itself, Texas and Florida would be huge economic basket cases along with California and Illinois.
FAIR wants to rescue Woke states from themselves, bless their hearts.
Despite the Problems, I Accept the Numbers
Despite many clear issues, I will now accept as fact for the remainder of this post, the FAIR claim of $150.7 billion per year, a total of $1.5 trillion over 10 years.
For the life of this post, I am proudly wearing, my “FAIR Is Fair” hat.
I accept the FAIR estimate of $1.5 trillion in benefits over 10 years. Let’s now look at the costs.
Upfront Costs
The average cost to arrest, detain, process, and remove an undocumented immigrant is approximately $17,121, according to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in 2025. This includes costs for apprehension, detention, legal proceedings, and transportation.
DHS assumes a country will quickly accept them. If not, they are detained at increasing costs.
For 11 million undocumented immigrants, the direct cost would be:
11,000,000 × $17,121 = $188.3 billion at current rates.
However, FAIR says there are 15.5 million illegal immigrants and I accept that number. That makes the upfront cost $265.4 billion.
Superficially, that’s not a bad trade spending $265.4 billion to save $1.5 trillion.
Except we cannot do it all big bang can we?
We need to build detention centers and staff them for however long it takes. We need more government funding every year for however long it takes.
The American Immigration Council estimates the ongoing costs for 11 million immigrants for 10 years to be an annual cost of $88 billion. The 10.6 year (1 million per year) cost would be $967.9 billion.
But let’s ignore that too and assume DHS costs are not understated.
In the name of complete FAIRness, I am going to assume countries will gladly take back these immigrants, at no charge, negating the need for increasing numbers of detainment facilities.
I received a telepathic question: Wait a second, Mish, are you assuming government costs figures are accurate?
Well, yes I am. Aren’t all government estimates of costs accurate?
Despite the obvious nonsensical nature of this discussion, I am sticking with both government estimates of the costs and FAIR’s estimate of the benefits except for two little things.
FAIR advocates conveniently overlook lost GDP and inflation.
Lost GDP
The PIIE reports Mass deportations would harm the US economy
In a new PIIE Working Paper, Warwick McKibbin, Megan Hogan, and Marcus Noland use econometric modeling to generate a baseline forecast for different variables like GDP, employment, and inflation in 24 countries and regions. They use the model to project the effects of three of Trump’s policy proposals—mass deportations, tariffs, and weakening Federal Reserve independence—measured as deviations from each baseline. This blog focuses on the economic impact of mass deportations—separate from the worrying humanitarian and moral costs such actions would have.
McKibbin, Hogan, and Noland examine two scenarios: a low-end estimate based on President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s deportation of 1.3 million persons in 1956 under what was officially called “Operation Wetback” and a high-end count based on a Pew Research Center study that estimated approximately 8.3 million workers in the US were unauthorized in 2022.
The model finds that by 2028 in both scenarios, employment measured in hours worked is below the baseline—1.1 percent under the low scenario and nearly 7 percent in the extreme case (figure 2). These findings are consistent with PIIE senior fellow Michael Clemens’s explanation of why deportation of unauthorized workers reduces employment for workers in the US.
The Trump campaign assumes that employers would simply replace the deported workers with native workers, but the historical record shows that employer behavior is far more complicated than that. Past experience with deportations demonstrates that employers do not find it easy to replace such workers. Instead, they respond by investing in less labor-intensive technologies to sustain their businesses, or they simply decide not to expand their operations. The net result is fewer people employed in key business sectors like services, agriculture, and manufacturing.
In addition, those unauthorized immigrants aren’t just workers—they’re consumers too. Deporting them means less demand for groceries, housing, services, and other household needs. This lower spending in turn reduces demand for workers in those sectors. That reduced demand for workers in all types of jobs outweighs the reduction of supply of unauthorized workers. Contrary to the Trump campaign’s assumption that deporting workers increases domestic employment, removing immigrants reduces jobs for other US workers.
Deportations would also drive inflation higher than the baseline through 2028 in both scenarios, but inflation would return to baseline by 2030. The distribution of price changes across US sectors varies, partly because the sectors are initially subject to different shocks to potential labor supply and partly because production linkages across the US and global economies differ in their exposure to international trade. Agriculture is projected to suffer the hardest, which is not surprising as up to 16 percent of that sector’s workforce could be removed, resulting in higher prices.
In addition to the moral issue of rounding up millions of people, and disrupting their families, workplaces, and livelihoods, Trump’s “America first” proposal for mass deportations would raise prices, cost jobs, and harm the US economy. Other policy proposals, like high tariffs and eroding Federal Reserve independence, are projected to deal an economic blow as well. Those scenarios, separately and combined with deportations, can be found in the Working Paper.
What’s the Lost GDP in Dollars?
The above GDP numbers are on a percentage basis. What’s the lost GDP in dollars?
Overall, mass deportation would lead to a loss of 4.2 percent to 6.8 percent of annual U.S. GDP, or $1.1 trillion to $1.7 trillion in 2022 dollars. In comparison, the U.S. GDP shrunk by 4.3 percent during the Great Recession between 2007 and 2009.
I am going to bend over backwards here in the sake of FAIRness. Thus, I temporarily accept the lower number of $1.1 trillion in lost GDP. I will even accept 2022 dollars and not current costs.
But wait a second, we assumed FAIR’s estimates of 15.5 million illegal immigrants, So, we either need lower FAIR’s estimates or up the GDP estimates.
Here’s the 10-year math. $1.1 trillion * 15.5 / 11 = $1.55 trillion.
What’s the PIIE Bias?
I have this AI response: The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) is generally considered nonpartisan. It is a non-profit, independent research organization focused on global economics and policy solutions. While it strives for intellectual openness, it does not align with any specific political ideology. Studies have even placed them at the very center of the American political spectrum.
CATO vs Manhattan Institute
The CATO and Manhattan Institute both crunched the numbers.
CATO discussed the results in Errors Mar Report That Claims Mass Deportation Cuts the Debt
MI did take the time to produce an interesting model, but because it incorporates many inaccurate assumptions, its results are flawed. MI’s model—after corrections—reveals significant fiscal upside to immigration.
MI’s revised analysis [by CATO] shows that mass deportation would cost the US government about $6.4 trillion—$1.5 trillion from the deportations themselves and $4.9 trillion from the lost tax revenue. My paper provides more detail and explanation behind these numbers, and people with an interest in this subject should read the whole report. However, unlike CBO’s results, MI’s results (even after my corrections) do not account for the indirect economic growth effects of immigration, so they should be seen as the minimum possible benefit.
Indirect Benefits
- Immigrants increase corporate profits and incentivize more investment in the United States, which indirectly increases tax revenues.
- Economists Mark Colas and Dominik Sachs estimate this effect at $750 per person annually. This would flip many other low-skilled immigrants positive in the MI model.
Note that CATO believes the deportation costs would be $1.5 trillion. Forget about that because we have already concluded that government costs estimates will be accurate.
Anything else?
Yes. Both FAIR and PIIE presume such madness does not cause a recession.
What else?
FAIR presents a false dichotomy. FAIR never discusses alternative means to collecting more taxes.
False Dichotomy
A false dichotomy, also known as a false dilemma or “either-or” fallacy, is a logical fallacy where only two options are presented as possibilities, when in reality there are more options available. It forces a choice between two extremes, ignoring the middle ground or other potential choices.
FAIR complains that many illegals do not pay taxes. Their solution is deportation, literally throw everyone out because some number do not pay taxes.
A third alternative is do do more to enforce laws to ensure businesses collect taxes.
There are many ways to accomplish this and I have some ideas that I will write up.
FAIR Net Cost
In the sake of FAIRness to the extreme, I will now toss all CATO estimates out the window.
Using FAIR’s numbers and DHS stated costs, the FAIR proposal would save $1.5 trillion over 10 years but cost $1.55 trillion in lost GDP plus an estimated up front cost of $265.4 billion using DHS stated cost assumptions.
But that ignores Trump’s move to restrict federal aid to illegal immigrants. Since Trump restricted Federal aid, we need to subtract that from FAIR savings.
Well, that’s OK because I will ignore that too.
I also assume FAIR’s benefits are not overstated, government cost numbers are not understated, and there are no annual governmental holding costs because countries will gladly take back the immigrants.
But FAIR ignores inflation while assuming zero costs for breaking up families. And FAIR ignores indirect benefits while presenting a false dichotomy. Forget about that too.
We also assume that deport them all will not cause a recession followed by massive government spending to fix the recession.
Even with all those assumptions, including the wild notion that government cost expectations will be on target, nothing else will go wrong, and foreign governments will gladly take back all these immigrants negating the need for holding facilities, there is still a negative benefit to deport them all!
Finally, these numbers use the low end estimate of PIIE hit to GDP. The high end would be $1.7 trillion * 15.5 / 11 = $2.4 trillion over 10 years.
CATO’s net estimates are much more favorable to immigration.
I side with CATO, but as stated, I will throw CATO’s $6.4 trillion cost idea out the window, as stated.
Instead, I suggest we start with a much lower estimate that it’s at least a $1 trillion net mistake to deport them all. But that $1 trillion includes ridiculously wild assumptions.
In practice, my actual best case estimate is at least a $2 trillion net mistake on the basis government costs are always understated, and the effort would either cause a recession or make a pending recession much worse.
Conclusions
It is economic stupidity to deport them all, using FAIR numbers, despite making numerous and illogical FAIR-favorable assumptions.
FAIR only looked at one side of the equation, ignoring loss in GDP and ignoring inflation, while making absurd assumptions that nothing can go wrong.
Even with those assumptions, FAIR is about $1 trillion in the hole, $6.4 trillion in the CATO model that I discarded.
With more reasonable assumptions, FAIR is at least $2 trillion in the hole. A likely range is $2 to $5 trillion depending on recession, government cost estimates, and what else goes wrong (because something always goes wrong with government math).
Time to Change My Hat
I am now changing my hat from “Fair is Fair” to “FAIR is Blatantly Stupid” and obviously so to anyone willing to think beyond exaggerated one-sided numbers.
The curious thing about cost-benefit analysis is that such analysis is supposed to look at costs and benefits. FAIR only looked at hyped-up benefits while ignoring major economic costs.
The Fair Report is Obvious Garbage
I searched the FAIR report for the words GDP and inflation. There were zero hits. The fact that FAIR did not discuss GDP, inflation, or other costs is a huge red flag that the entire report is garbage.
However, people will believe what they want. I will not talk true believers out of believing excruciatingly sloppy and obviously wrong one-sided FAIR analysis.
Biased people want to remain biased and deport them all. If that means they need to believe cost-benefit analysis that does not include costs, then they will believe cost-benefit analysis that does not include costs.
Rooted beliefs are nearly impossible to change no matter what evidence is presented.
Temporary Sanity
Meanwhile, in the real world, we have a shocking bout of perhaps temporary economic sanity from Trump.
Trump on Truth Social
Truth Social: Our great Farmers and people in the Hotel and Leisure business have been stating that our very aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace. In many cases the Criminals allowed into our Country by the VERY Stupid Biden Open Borders Policy are applying for those jobs. This is not good. We must protect our Farmers, but get the CRIMINALS OUT OF THE USA. Changes are coming!
On June 13, at 6:30 AM, I reported TACO Trump Backs Down on Farm and Hotel Worker Deportations
Trump is suddenly worried about “impossible to replace hotel workers”.
I Told You So
I wonder what the suck-ups, deport them all economic clowns, and bigots will have to say about this I told you so.
Well strike that. I know what the bigots will say and that is still deport them all. Bigots are what they are.
The Trump Is never wrong suck-ups will seemingly have a more difficult time, but I know how that goes: He was right then and right now and there never was an issue because this was a somehow a brilliant 5D move.
Some suck-ups will deal with the issue by pretending it never happened. From them, expect silence. Even if they think Trump is wrong they will never say so.
The vocal economic Trumpian clowns will have the toughest time.
I believe I broke that story. I wrote it on the 12th but delayed posting till the morning of the 13th.
In retrospect, risking someone else beating me to this story was a mistake. But there are no earlier reports that I am aware of.
Biden Let in 21 Million?
Following the above “Truth” about “Great farmers”, Trump then blasted Biden over 21 million illegal immigrants, a ridiculous number.
Truth Social Link: Biden let 21 Million Unvetted, Illegal Aliens flood into the Country from some of the most dangerous and dysfunctional Nations on Earth — Many of them Rapists, Murderers, and Terrorists. This tsunami of Illegals has destroyed Americans’ Public Schools, Hospitals, Parks, Community Resources, and Living Conditions. They have stolen American Jobs, consumed BILLIONS OF DOLLARS in Free Welfare, and turned once idyllic Communities, like Springfield, Ohio, into Third World Nightmares. I campaigned on, and received a Historic Mandate for, the largest Mass Deportation Program in American History. Polling shows overwhelming Public Support for getting the Illegals out, and that is exactly what we will do. As Commander-in-Chief, I will always protect and defend the Heroes of ICE and Border Patrol, whose work has already resulted in the Most Secure Border in American History. Anyone who assaults or attacks an ICE or Border Agent will do hard time in jail. Those who are here illegally should either self deport using the CBP Home App or, ICE will find you and remove you. Saving America is not negotiable!
There’s the threat of mass deportations again, accompanied by people telling me I was wrong.
Then on June 14, I reported Trump Suddenly Pauses Deportation Raids on Farms, Hotels, and Restaurants
It’s official, and I am very pleased by this abrupt shift to sanity.
The guidance was sent on Thursday in an email by a senior ICE official, Tatum King, to regional leaders of the ICE department that generally carries out criminal investigations, including work site operations, known as Homeland Security Investigations.
“Effective today, please hold on all work site enforcement investigations/operations on agriculture (including aquaculture and meat packing plants), restaurants and operating hotels,” he wrote in the message.
The Department of Homeland Security confirmed the guidance.
“We will follow the president’s direction and continue to work to get the worst of the worst criminal illegal aliens off of America’s streets,” Tricia McLaughlin, a department spokeswoman, said in a statement.
Will Trump’s Tilt Towards Sanity be Temporary?
We have a bout of Trump deportation sanity. If it’s temporary, expect big economic losses, front loaded, as the PIIE charts show.
Unfortunately, much economic damage has already been done.
People are afraid to go to work and businesses don’t want to expand in this environment. Riots and protests will also take a toll on the economy.
On top of it all, we still have no sanity from Trump on tariffs.
Related Posts
June 12: Continued Unemployment Claims Surge by 54,000. Total Highest Since Nov 2021
The ping-pong match in alternating continued claims is over.
June 13: TACO Trump Backs Down on Farm and Hotel Worker Deportations
Trump is suddenly worried about “impossible to replace hotel workers”.
June 14, 2025 Economist Steve Roach Expects a Prolonged Period of Tariff Uncertainty
The bottom line, Roach notes, is that a “protracted period of policy uncertainty essentially freezes business decision-making on capital spending and hiring, with negative repercussions for income generation and consumer demand; consumer purchasing power should be further constrained by tariff-related price shocks. Uncertainty remains the enemy of decision making.”
Roach is correct. That suggest that I am too.
“If everything is profit and loss, I guess we don’t need principles and preference any more?”
We certainly should look at legalities and principles.
Trump proposed obviously unconstitutional birthright citizen EOs, illegally deported people, admitted making mistakes in deporting people, denied people their rights to hearings, and acted like a Gestapo goon, fueling riots and protests and causing economic damage in many states.
So thank you for your question on principles.
“If everything is profit and loss, I guess we don’t need principles and preference any more?”
Be principled all you want. But the amount of time we have on this earth and the amount of resources we have is finite. We are always performing profit and loss calculations. Not only with time but with money and other resources.
It’s been said you have to spend money to make money. If you had to spend $100,000 to make $100,000, would you do it?
If the government seized $50,000 of your property under civil asset forfeiture, and it was going to take $50,000 in lawyer fees and years of your life to fight it in court, would you do it?
I could list countless other examples, but I’ll stop and wait for your honest answer.
It’s at least $3 cost per dollar of benefit for government outlays. It’s hard to imagine a worse return on investment than what the government achieves yearly.
Do you even understand the irony of your question? The Garcia case is the perfect example. Trump spent millions getting the guy deported, was ordered to bring him back (more millions) and now they’re spending millions more prosecuting him on trumped up charges.
The LA marines deployment cost $137 million and for what? TACO has just told ICE to stop raids are farms, hotels, and restaurants. So now Trump has created “sanctuary” employment hubs at these places. Oh the irony about sanctuary cities vs sanctuary job hubs.
Bottom line, the immigration “war” is lost and it was lost on Trump’s watch by Trump.
The Garcia case is poor execution facing poor judgement (originally, IMO) by the immigration “court” in granting Garcia what they granted. Also, poor handling and poor optics regarding the “temporary” incarceration pending resolution. Yes! I consider the Garcia case a Trump unforced error. There are destructive and constructive ways to do everything.
My question, as Mike tunes into, does not at all refute economics or capitalism. I ran an international business operation for an ITT group. I think I have a feel for the value and essence of both business and ethics. But thanks for the remedial lesson.
There is a big missing hole in the argument about illegals and GDP – a large part of the GDP is government spending. Because of that the GDP “looks” larger because the taxpayers are made poorer by the taxes the government collects to support the illegals.
My son, a doctor, said that in his community, 85% of the illegals who receive free medicaid, don’t have any job. Maybe they work in the black market, but in this case, they don’t contribute anything to taxes.
Exciting News!
I was just informed the FAIR and Heritage Foundation say a lifetime per-immigrant costs of $68,000–$592,000, depending on the study.
Since I have accepted all FAIR numbers, we can now safely offer $60,000 per person to leave, and come out ahead.
But why should only immigrants have this opportunity?
Let’s open it up to everyone so we can raise GDP per capita that some here demand.
Hell, Mish, I may take $60k x 5 for may adult family to go to Canada. I mean, the UP of Michigan is no different weather-wise 🙂
Not so far away, and the fishing is the same!
I’m already planning to leave, so $60k bonus for doing so works for me! Is this open to citizens too? Sign me up!
“Principles and preference” — a clumsy longhand for racism.
The “principles and preference” talk is specially rich coming from the supporters of a convicted felon who pardoned 1500 other felons convicted of storming the capitol building.
“Principles” and “the law is the law” only applies to brown people.
Yep, the economics of deportation are so harmful for the USA, this has been true for decades. A good friend of mine wrote a book describing all the benefits immigrants brought to many US cities in the 1980s. They essentially helped keep decaying urban centers from hollowing out and rotting major urban centers around the country.
When the economics of deportation are disproven, all you have left is their skin color. Claim to be for law and order? Enforce it with our President.
To be overturned on appeal, so there won’t be any felony when all is said and done. Trump’s constitutional rights were violated. Apparently, the Capital police fired on the peaceful protestors standing on the lawn, without warning. Who was it that actually wanted a riot to occur?
The principles and preference comment refers to generic American Ethics and nothing to do with Trump. They are our ethics, not his. And they did not come from a Trump supporter. The comment came from a Constitutional and traditional policy guy. That Trump basis much of his policies (who says “all”) on Constitutional and traditional thought and ran against a declining more totalitarian leaning political party had to gain my vote. And, for those fitting policies retains my vote. Not much I or anyone can do with other behaviors and policies we don’t agree with.
Thank you for an astute observation
Hola jefe ! Deportarlos !
Speaking of principles, what about the rule of law (as in “illegal” migrants).
8 USC 1324
You’re not going to look at the actual costs of illegal immigration, are you?
Priceless
The increase of low skilled immigration has done nothing but displace low skilled native workers. (lower participation rate of employment and more welfare). There has not been enough job creation in the lower skilled job openings to support the migration influx of low skillset immigrants. We just have an increase in population poverty by adding more people low income wage earners.
Exactly. When we import the poorest of the poor to compete with the natively born poor people, it’s not difficult to understand what happens to wages.
On the economics of illegal immigration, at least in California’s case, illegal aliens contribute roughly 8.5 billion/year in taxes to the state economy (source: Institute on taxation and economic policy). They also cost taxpayers between 22-31 billion/year in social services and expensive healthcare programs like Medi-Cal that provides no cost healthcare to illegal immigratns. This does not account for time spent by teachers in classrooms with kids who can’t speak or understand English.
It breaks out to about 7k in taxes per person.
Just deal with the facts of this rather than the emotions.
Mike, care to address how this will be handled, or should we all just keep paying more for this?
Richard F repeated his claim that I support open borders, despite the fact I have repeatedly said I don’t.
He is gone. I do not tolerate lies about my positions.
But the illegals are also consumers, so prices will fall for rents, housing, groceries, etc. Also for car insurance and medical insurance, big time, since the money has to come from somewhere to pay claims. Wages would go up, but for most working Americans that is great news.
This is a perennial, like Iran’s WMD/nukes and nuclear fusion, always imminent.
This number has been going the rounds since Obama, and doesn’t count the millions/year during Biden (stats count people they stopped and let go, etc., not the ones that stayed under the radar entirely
How much was Mollie Tibbets life worth figured in the $ calculation?
1986 raygun does amnesty. The initial border wall between the US and Mexico, particularly in California, was largely constructed in the early to mid-1990s. This construction was part of larger operations like Operation Gatekeeper, focused on enhancing border security in urban areas. While the first sections were built from leftover Vietnam War landing mats, later phases involved more substantial barriers.
Meanwhilee, in the Middle East
US bulking up support to Israel and Iran has to decide Hormuz opening hours, and we get to find if Trump and Hegseth are capable of a “Cuba missile crisis” moment”
“….
The U.S. is now deploying 24 Air Force tankers eastward—an unprecedented surge far beyond any NATO exercise like Trident Juncture.
Trident Juncture 2018 (the largest in recent years):
— The U.S. deployed around 6–8 tankers: KC-135 Stratotankers and KC-10 Extenders, mostly from bases like RAF Mildenhall and Ramstein NOT from US Bases…
This isn’t routine. These tankers are strategic force multipliers, enabling long-range ops for bombers, fighters, and ISR assets.
If you’re wondering whether something massive is underway—you’re not wrong.
Trump doubles down, unfazed by the protests.
I saw this coming, he likely didn’t even look at the protests. How did i see this coming? Because I know his personality type quite well.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-directs-ice-to-expand-deportation-efforts-in-americas-largest-cities.amp#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17500764852456&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com
are you farting in your hand and smelling them right now?
Trump was implying illegal migrants in his hotels when he was President last time….it was widely reported but no action was taken. I do not believe that Trump has sacked all his illegals at Trump hotels in the US.
Progressives arriving in Egypt planning to ‘March to Gaza’ in solidarity with the Palestinians are being attacked and thrown out by Egyptians who won’t tolerate Palestinian sympathizers.
https://x.com/l3v1at4an/status/1933677331937181878
Perhaps Trump has started to consider the demographics of deporting all of these younger immigrants. Not only are many of them working and providing vital services to the lower skill and lower pay scale jobs, they are having lots of babies. Immigrants have far higher birthrates and are creating more future workers to support our aging population.
Remember the huge Irish Catholic families? The German, Polish, Italian and English immigrants and their large families a few generations back?
Demographics matter! A younger population is more vital and dynamic. The notion that homogenous conforming cultures are more resilient is contrary to all biologic systems.
To me the FAIR statistics are questionable and I see low wage earners as spenders of virtually all of their earnings. This creates a higher velocity of money as it travels through many hands and is taxed repeatedly.
Our entire Social Security system is based on increasing the number of workers supporting the benefit receivers. Lots of individuals point out that China is going to fail because of its low birthrate. I’m not a fan of overpopulation, but from an economic perspective their is a case to be made for deporting the criminals but keeping the hard working family builders.
Of course this commentary ignores the illicit drug trade. Everyone loses in the drug trade as the wealth is concentrated and the capital is often removed from the economy unless and until it is laundered and returned to the economy.
Trump dgaf.
More cars, more pollution, higher real estate values and lower quality of life. Is India the new model for life in the USA? We have robots, work visas and welfare reform to expand the workforce without inflicting the horrors of overpopulation. I like space and don’t enjoy stumbling over my fellow humans.
Imagine how many immigrants we will have to import in the future to cover today’s immigrants future social security. If all these vital people are leaving Mexican countries, how are those countries going to prosper.
Seriously.. Give us a half a dozen Elons spending 100% of their income on personal expenses basis vs: a million illegal immigrants spending 100% their personal expenses. Elon needs one spoon and one fork, a million immigrants need a million forks and spoons. Supporting a population of immigration povery is a significant burden.
The true way to end illegal immigration is to turn this country into a shithole-type country that all these people want to leave.
Problem solved !
Solution in process now !
I already see this in southern Delaware. Bucolic small towns are now overrun with illegal chicken plant employees, Ninos and disgusting poverty; a trip to Walmart is now a trip to the third world. There is a better way, simple solutions have unintended consequences.
I see that too where I live in eastern South Dakota/western MN. Slaughterhouse employees beginning to outnumber long-time citizens, often resulting in run down homes, depressed property values and higher crime.
Trump this evening has great news..”We have our trade deals. All we have to do is send a letter and tell them how much they have to pay.”
Not sure how that works in the real world
It does not work.
That is why so many nations are laughing at Trump and his TACO mockery of negotiating techniques.
He negotiates with himself and capitulates whenever his bladder empties accidentally.
I’m going to argue two points in two separate comments. Here, I argue that “Squatter’s Rights” provides a helpful paradigm for resolving the “Mass Deportation Problem”.
From a practical perspective, illegal entry into the United States is effectively a crime punishable by detainment and deportation… unless there are mitigating circumstances (e.g. legitimate need for asylum) which justify an alternative.
Deportation works well enough when the offender is caught relatively soon after entering, or if they are merely leeching without making a net economic contribution. But deportation gets awkward and “feels wrong” when applied to someone who has been here a while AND become a valuable part of the community.
There are many parallels between illegal immigration and squatting on property. Trespassing is initially a criminal offense, but if one stays on that property long enough, it eventually becomes squatting, which is a civil matter. When there’s an abandoned property, it’s initially Trespassing for a non-owner to enter, but if they stay long enough as a Squatter, pay the tax bills and make a net contribution like a real owner would, they’re eventually granted legal possession. The time required varies from maybe 5 to 30 years, depending on which state it is.
Regarding the current situation, I think the majority opinion is that any illegal migrants who arrived since 2020 should be deported as a matter of principle since the prior Administration failed egregiously to control the borders. Most citizens view most recent illegals as unwanted trespassers.
But it’s not clear what to do with those who have been here a long time. As we’ve seen in the conversations here, this is a fundamental legal/political issue. And it’s similar to abortion in that it raises deep questions about fundamental human rights, and generates strong emotions and passionate opinions on all sides.
As with abortion, we need to find a balanced compromise for immigration. How about this: any illegal immigrant who has stayed here since January 1, 2020 should able to enter a process leading to Permanent Residency IF they can show that they’ve been making a positive contribution to the nation for the past 3-4 years. Then, IF they continue to make a positive contribution, they can become permanent residents in another 5 years, and eventually become citizens. The rationale for such Immigrants’ Rights is very similar to that for Right to Life or for Squatter’s Rights: at some point it becomes a net negative to terminate the matter in question.
For those who do get deported, as well as others who would like to come here, we need to consider an expanded legal immigration system, but one where all applicants from now on must Remain Outside to Remain Eligible.
(I’m not a fan of the Gold Visa approach because we want people who are legitimately productive, not merely rich. As in Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, we’ll find that too many people haven’t honestly earned their Golden Tickets. But I do think an expanded immigration system with sensible preferences for those able to make a valuable contribution would help us all.)
Finally, the borders need to be secured and a whole host of laws reworked to remove the current perverse incentives for illegals to sneak in and squat here. This includes elimination of most “anchor babies” – no birthright citizenship for babies born to illegals and tourists.
You are correct in what you say, with most of these things already existing in the immigration laws – which also give extra flexibility by providing an immigration judge. The “gold visa” approach already existed (the investor visa EB-5 and
E-2).
The Swiss have a solution similar to the one you propose – “does the local community accept the newcomer?” when it comes to citizenship, but in the US this can be easily faked.
The problem lies with the previous administration policy to open the borders and let anyone willing to come in, which attracted tons of criminals in the mix. They escaped the police of their own countries and came here, where nobody checked their past, and would receive free hotel and meals. Unfortunately the motives behind it were revealed before the House Homeland Security Committee in this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVC_6ouFV9o
If half the country is not concerned about security, and tries to blur the problem with selective economic arguments, you got a problem of “unsinkable Titanic” in your hands – too much confidence. Shit-testing the population’s tolerance is not mature politics.
EB-5 was a disaster in my state of SD. Rich Chinese investors sought to open a meat packing plant that never materialized in order to gain citizenship. Some state officials committed fraud in this scheme.
I don’t believe that the idea of “squatter’s rights” exists in the current immigration laws. That’s the main source of the current dispute: what to do with people already here? Some clearly do not belong, others have made excellent contributions and could’ve been offered citizenship a few decades ago. The current system does not have any provision for offering illegal immigrants an earned path to permanent residency. Such a provision would create a bad incentive of its own, but it might be the least-bad option.
We do have to be flexible on immigration and most do agree on that. What we do not want is chaotic immigration which is what Biden’s policy brought.
Would we have participated in World War II with such an analysis ?
Probably not almost a waste of time get some common sense!
Still waiting for all the inflation caused by Tariffs last I looked inflation was down? Maybe we need more Tariffs!
I’m going to argue two points in two separate comments. Here, I argue that “Civil Does Not Fit”. In practice illegal immigration isn’t, and shouldn’t be, handled like a normal civil case.
Encyclopedia Britannica’s description of “civil” and “criminal” cases shows that in practical terms, illegal immigration doesn’t fit either category, but it is a closer match to “criminal”.
Ways in which “civil does not fit”:
Ways in which “criminal does not fit”:
From a common-sense perspective, illegal entry into the United States is a crime punishable by detainment and deportation… unless there are mitigating circumstances (e.g. legitimate need for asylum) which justify an alternative.
The fundamental unresolved political/legal question is “what mitigating circumstances justify NOT deporting an illegal immigrant?” That’ll be my second comment.
Here’s Brittanica (link below):
https://www.britannica.com/story/what-is-the-difference-between-criminal-law-and-civil-law
TACO is a schizo and an idiot. he sounds like monty hall. let’s make a deal. let’s make a deal farmers and hotels. let’s make a deal china. let’s make a deal ukraine and china. let’s make a deal iran and israel. let’s let Vlad Putin be monty hall for israel. the stoooooopid hurts and also makes me LOL. TACO is schizo. it’s like having sybil as potus.
I agree. Why are illegal farm workers ok but other industries illegal workers not? What industries is Trump trying to protect and why? Illegal is illegal by most standards.
reality check time. southern border has been wide open for 400 years. in fact the border has changed. FL and the west was new spain and parts were mexico. also reality check. on border and immigration, we have 2 signs and policies. JOBS, high pay, off the books………..and other policy and sign says, Stay out. we as a nation are like TACO boy. a bit schizo. very schizo. PRO TIP. this situation will stay the same for another decade and most likely another century.
I am hopeful that once some version of the BBB is signed, Trump will start to focus on immigration reform. It’s impossible to deport 25M (11-15 prior to 2020 + 10-14M under Biden) illegals for all sorts of reasons.
As I’ve said many times, he needs to lay out a national plan. What sectors of the economy like construction, can policies target to slowly replace illegals with American workers?
What process can be put in place the brings at least 70% of the illegals out of the shadows? How can states help manage this to minimize disruptions? Who will be required to self-deport? We already know what the consequences are for not doing so. Will illegals be allowed to register somewhere and not be expected to self-deport but not make any sort of amnesty claims which needs to be addressed and locked down much tighter than is now required.
For now and until some form of immigration reform is signed, he’s going to have his hands full with removing the criminal element as well as those who have not shown up for their hearings. That’s likely to be millions of people.
Again, there has to be some sort of all-encompassing plan that has some level of give & take. American’s who are un-employed & under-employed need to know what opportunities may be coming available as time passes.
How can we hold businesses accountable by using e-Verify with real consequences for breaking the law.
And yes something needs to happen with the “Dreamers” but it can’t be amnesty. They still have to do something to achieve legal status.
What an amazing plan! If only we had a group of people that could put all of this together. I don’t know, something like a legislative branch called “congress” and an “executive branch” that could come together and formulate a plan by passing something called a “bill” that turns into a “law” that can then be instituted and carried out.
You’re on to something, I wonder why no one has thought of this the last 75 years. Maybe you should run for something?
If Trump has enough success with deportions like it looks like he may achieve, that may well bring all parties to the table.
I’m merely outlining what I think needs to be done. I’m certainly not assigning a probability.
Take away the entire subsidy gravy train (including any exploited tax credits), and illegal immigrants will start self deporting. It’s incredibly expensive to live in the US for the very lowest earners.
I love how people can be so opinionated about immigration while having no clue as to what they are talking about.
“In theory” the illegal immigrants are not eligible for a lot of things. “In practice” the restrictions and exclusions are larely ignored, especially in places like California. We have all sorts of versions of the 1040 tax forms. Create a 1040-II form for illegal immigrants, and make it a Federal crime not to fill it out, or to try and circumvent it.
Trump already did that and offered $1,000.
Some of it is up to states.
How is it working?
One taker for $1,000.
There you go, JeffD, you’re making too much sense. You’d better stop while you’re ahead ; )
Translate: We need to have some sort of amnesty to bring 70% of the illegals out of the shadows. But it can’t be amnesty.
This sums up very well MAGA’s completely bipolar, contradictory and irrational view on immigration.
I have a proposal that will bring them out, but it does involve amnesty,
Otherwise it won’t happen. Period.
Nope. I’m talking about comprehensive immigration & welfare reform. Again, we don’t solve the $2T budget deficit without eliminating 98% of what’s spent on supporting illegals & the associated tax revenue loss. You’re just not going to get there, IMHO.
The absolute number #1 requirement is to force employers to use e-Verify & to hold them accountable through criminal indictments & significant fines. Without this requirement, there is no chance of meaningfully moving the needle long-term.
Then, remove any illegal from ever being allowed to receive any sort of public assistance. US welfare programs should be for US citizens only.
Force anyone who came here illegally with bypassing CBP to immediately self-deport or risk never being allowed to return to the US.
End all of these refugee programs which would be absorbed into some sort of framework that determines on an annual basis what legal immigration is needed & allowed. This process would favor merit / skill above all else.
Finally, put a process in place that allows those still here to register and follow a process that may require them to self-deport, pay fines, and then follow a mandated process with various hoops & milestones for them to gain legal status, not citizenship, which would come much later & only after demonstrating all sorts of assimilation with American values.
Again, the states would be empowered to help manage this process.
That has been in place for DECADES.
That would require the end of the Refugee Act of 1980. Good luck passing that on Congress.
Nobody will do it because no one trusts the system anymore, after registered immigrants were grabbed, detained and summarily deported to a 3rd country after attending their scheduled check-in appointments with immigration.
Again, like many folks, you don’t have a good grasp of the system or the situation.
Kristi Noem recently stating that you must self-deport or be subject from being banned for life is the first I’ve heard of this DHS policy.
Yes, the Refugee Act would need to be modified or repealed. It’s out of date. With 25M illegals running around, the US can’t keep importing people through refugee programs. That’s not hard to understand.
Again, you’re making an assumption about compliance. And the whole point goes back to my #1 priority: E-Verify.
If E-Verify was in place and had criminal penalties with teeth, then people would be forced to come out of the shadows. To work, they’d have to go through the legal registration process.
The whole key to the entire thing is E-Verify. Everything else is just mop up.
This sums up very well MAGA’s completely bipolar, contradictory and irrational view on
immigrationeverything.Well amnesty might allow the illegal imigrants to seek out living income jobs in the free market. All those farm workers can find wage jobs in other markets that pay living income subsistance.
Giving them amnesty makes them legal.
But if you want to make them do something, charge them $1.
Actually, I will have a more serious proposal.
Oh no, you’re vastly under-estimating what I’d expect.
Amnesty is a REWARD. 1986 is what got us in this mess to start with.
We don’t need another do over on that one.
raygun did that amnesty. the 90s were a good decade for economics.
Who’s raygun?
The boom in the 90’s was in large part due to computerization & the arrival of ecommerce. Neither of those had much to do with illegals.
“I am hopeful that once some version of the BBB is signed, Trump will start to focus on immigration reform.”
Hope in one hand and sh#t in the other and see which hands fills up first! The idea of trump working on any kind of thoughtful reform is hilarious. This is a guy who plotted a hurricane with a sharpie to save face! How can you possibly hope such a person will work towards meaningful reform? How naive can a person possibly be?
Looking at only the economics of deporting vs doing nothing completely devalues the rule of law to pennies on the dollar. For us to be a nation, rule of law must exist and be enforced. To refuse to enforce laws because it’s too expensive to enforce has already encourage other, more serious laws to be broken, such as the murder of Laken Riley. The analysis doesn’t even begin to go into the costs of enforcing, prosecuting, and punishing crimes committed by illegal aliens aside from illegal entry.
Building and maintaining anything takes effort and energy. The longer maintenance goes neglected, the greater the cost to fix and or replace.
<<For us to be a nation>>
You need a common language, common values (“culture”), and a common acceptance of history. That’s the minimum to establish common identity, which means “nation”. I did not include common heritage/ancestry.
— The atheist first emperors of the Byzantine Empire even established a common official religion, acknowledging the importance of commonalities. The empire survived a few centuries more than the western part, which multiculturalism destroyed swiftly.
— By definition multicultural nations do not exist. The USA is large enough to contain different secondary cultures under a dominant primary culture of law and business, but at the expense of an actual society. It was the very first thing I noticed in the USA when I came here, without anyone telling me that. It was so obvious.
— Meaning, you’re creating a fragile mosaic, not a melting pot. Certainly not a nation.
Multi-cultural countries crumble like sand castles under stress. I am talking about Austria-Hungary and WW1, no need to go back to Rome.
That didn’t even have racial element to it.
Of course, because of competing interests – everyone wants to change the country to something vastly different. It’s textbook “a house divided against itself”.
Income inequality contributes to that – you’re creating different cultures by that as well. In the island of Crete, where wealthy and poor dressed and behaved the same and you would find them at the same taverna table (friendships since kindergarten), foreigners were amazed at how cohesive and friendly society was, with very low crime rate despite the absence of police and high gun-ownership rate.
The Scandinavians are another example of this, before the recent immigration tsunami. They had become an industrial powerhouse once, without immigrants and without multi-culturalism. Same for the Japanese.
————–
But is it easy in huge countries with not much history like the USA?
Time will tell. During Biden the country felt like an unguarded bus station. Some of us may live to see the inevitable split of the US into separate “regions”. A majority of Mexican voters in the Southwest will not resist a closer connection with the motherland, and their loyalty to the Northeast WASPs is zero.
I would add many examples of culturally cohesive societies, 1970-tees Britain or Germany. It is as if some criminal mastermind orchestrated a planned demolition of highly successful societies. It is not too difficult: get a hold of media, and cultural institutions, and easy life takes care of the rest. Humans are programmable animals, after all.
switzerland works well with 3 languages and cultures.
It might work better without 3 of everthing?
I am in favor of the law. Glad to see you are to.
Under the law, they are allowed to a hearing and allowed a challenge.
Now, how fast will that happen?
To your point – why aren’t we using E-verify to identify them? Because the business community would scream. In a matter of days you could shut down most construction sites in America, several meat packing plants, a lot of restaurants. Bring in some of those whiz kids from DOGE and the software could be developed in weeks. No masked agents.
“ In a matter of days you could shut down most construction sites in America, several meat packing plants, a lot of restaurants.”
Correct – That is why Trump served another TACO.
But Trump failed to realize the Whiz Kids at DOGE would have volunteered to become meat packers if only he waited.
e verify is a joke. landscapers, maids, bodegas…
Shut them down. Many of us hire legal citizens, pay payroll liabilities, provide living wages and benifits.
E-verify is a joke. Ask the CEO of the company whose business was raided a few days ago. He said everyone working for him had been E-verified, but reality was most were here illegally, thus the raid.
Yes. There would be a near term hit to GDP due to deportation, but there would also be disinflation, not further inflation. A huge amount of consumption/GDP would dry up in the near term, but only for the near term.
The best compromise here might be to deport the “worst” 10% of illegal immigrants: (1) Those who are criminals, (2) Those who are not working “hard”, and with little to no intention to work hard since the day they arrived.
My proposal: Social Security credits are $1810 each, with a worker earning a maximum of four credits a year. So I propose that any illegal immigrant household not working enough to earn W-2 income exceeding four credits/yr multiplied by household size is not pulling their weight, and should not be here. So if a household contains a husband, wife and two children, and they are not earning at least 16 credits/yr of W-2 income ($28,960) they need to be deported. Also the illegal immigrant subsidy gravy train needs to stop unless they decide to leave the country and come back through legal immigration channels. They are here illegally, so this is more than fair.
Finally, the subsidy gravy train for legal citizens and permanent residents cripples both our economy and our labor force and needs to be cut back dramatically. There has already been a lot of work on this since Trump took office, and it needs to happen more aggressively. We our killing our economy with kindness be demotivating the labor force while running up an already untenable fiscal deficit.
Amazon Fresh (due to a minor knee problem I preferred to use it, multiple times):
a) The closest Fresh store is 0.7 miles away, but it’s a different suburb. So they chose to send me the order from the store of my suburb (which is 4 miles away).
b) Middle-aged delivery drivers who don’t speak a word of English. They were real people in their countries, over here they are non-talking robots, dependent on multiple services just to survive. Way to go to create a society in 2025!
c) I made a slight suggestion to Amazon (“please do not block my door with the bags, because I can’t open it to pick them up!“), and the over-zealous AI refunded my whole order and probably penalized the poor clueless delivery driver.
There used to be a smaller grocery store here 10 years ago, I used their delivery a few times, it was free of charge, faster, they spoke English, I knew the delivery guy by name and we were exchanging jokes a few times. Sorry for being a social person.
No further inflation, after the initial shock of 20% and closed businesses.
Then we simply have lower GDP and fewer people paying taxes to support boomers on SS.
Yes, what a beautiful plan!
Mish, as long as the stock market keeps going up all is right in the world.
Excellent post. I’m going to give this post a pre-3 Star Mishelin™ rating because I know it’s gonna trigger a ton of MAGA maniacs, very informative and analytical.
But some of us saw this coming long ago, here’s a post I found from Jan 2, 2025.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/five-funding-and-legal-obstacles-to-trumps-immigration-plans/
And my comment, “Like I said, we’ll get a clown show of sound bites and news clips of raids and kids and cages for a few news cycles then it’s business as usual.”
Here we are business as usual as the big TACO does his thing. It only took 5 months.
Well done Mish. Keep ’em coming.
I wonder what the difference would be economically if say a hotel had to pay more to the remaining American workers if the illegals were deported. Hours worked would also change in this example. Taxation would be higher and those workers would be subsidized less in the form of food stamps and such. There’s a multiplier effect there. Would employment change and bring out a few more Americans to work since wages would obviously have to be higher? So many unknowns and different equations that even these assumptions and figures aren’t great.
Taco Gestapo doesn’t do nuance like cost benefit analysis. White=good, brown=bad. When prices go up, it’s bad. This means it’s because of brown, because brown=bad. This is the kind of people we let vote. America is so generous to her morons. Can you imagine letting these people run an ice cream stand? But we let them vote.
Mish : I can’t think of any other Nation allowing people to Illegally cross the border ??? In addition my understanding is these people are not assimilating to our nation instead we are assimilating and accommodating them. Our schools are overcrowded , our healthcare ie Hospitals , Doctors are overloaded . Many Black Americans have been forced out of their communities by the invasion ! The assimilation issue occurred in past US History although not in such large numbers. That resulted in closing entry in the US. Sadly this really is another form of slavery in reverse by importing cheap labor for special interest groups. And finally , Census counting , voters for the Democrat party. All of this is evil & wicked !!!
“these people are not assimilating to our nation instead we are assimilating and accommodating them”
That’s the way it’s always been or do you speak Navajo or Cherokee?
Interesting how the administrative burden has increased five-fold since the 1960s. Amazing how children used to be better educated with less administrative burden. Maybe we should try to go back to that?
I agree. We should just deport everyone. But we cant deport citizens though can we. Strike that, Trump is looking into the idea (Yes I am serious).
Since the goal is GDP per capita why not pay everyone including US citizens $200,000 to leave.
We are sure to make it up in GDP per Capita.
I don’t believe we should deport “everyone”. The damage has already been done, and unfortunately there are no take backs.
Jack Welch, former CEO of General Electric, implemented a layoff strategy based on a 20-70-10 rule, which involved ranking employees and firing the bottom 10% annually. Perhaps we should do the same with illegal immigrants in a one-time event (played out over the next 3.5 years). I believe that’s what Trump is aiming for. What do you think of Jack Welch as a manager? Was he a completely ineffective nut ball? He had essentially the same strategy as Trump has now.
Mish, I hope you understand that you are trying to have a rational discussion about a topic with people who don’t have rational feelings about it, right?
for them it is not about cost vs. benefit, demographic decline or anything like that. It is a visceral feeling about ethnic homogeneity. Your ROI for the energy you are putting on this discussion will be near zero.
“Mish, I hope you understand that you are trying to have a rational discussion about a topic with people who don’t have rational feelings about it, right?”
Yes, look the idiotic comments.
Perhaps people didn’t like car and shelter costs exploding 30% in 2 years due to a step function of inelastic supply constraint/competition well beyond what available resources could absorb, even over very long time frames. Perhaps only a million should have arrived each year rather than 4 million a year. But no, rational economic actions from Biden would have been too much to ask for. Curiously, that sure sounds like an economic argument to me.
In my kids school they have multiple spanish TAs for the 1:1 support of kids who speak spanish and yet sit in the classrooms with everyone else. This is just the clear example right in front of me, now multiply that a big number…
Less is more in some instances. I was just recently looking at using less.
Economics is not the point, anyone here illegally is a criminal. Criminals are not welcome in the United States. Further any criminals that benefited in any way from taxpayers money in the United States, to include welfare, food, stamps, the cost of an education, any in all cost incurred by American taxpayers for these criminals needs to be reimbursed by these criminals. They not only need to be sent back to wherever they came from, but they need to be burdened with the cost of every cent that they have cost Americans. And that also includes the cost of graciously transporting them back to wherever they came from. 20% of Americans – American Caucasians American blacks Americans live at or below the poverty line. That we have given even $.10 to any criminal who entered our country is shameful! We need to take care of our own. We don’t have enough money to support the entire world, especially criminals.
“Economics is not the point, anyone here illegally is a criminal.”
That’s bullshit.
Being here is generally a civil offense not a criminal one. And that fact is how the Trump administration gets away with Gestapo tactics.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/maga-cheers-the-gestapo-tactics-that-sparked-the-la-riots/
Mish, you might need better sources to convince people that illegal immigration is not a crime. Maybe this will do:
Former Trump lawyer and former Associate Attorney General Rudy Giuliani speaking on the Glenn Beck show: Illegal Immigration is Not A Crime And Should Not Be.
https://youtu.be/FDo-ZVK4dc0?si=jwmqc0JqoRZRDk47
It may start as a civil offense (which is a crime),
Under US law, a crime is an action or omission that violates a law and is punishable by the government. It generally involves both a criminal act (actus reus) and a criminal intent (mens rea). Crimes can be categorized into felonies, misdemeanors, and infractions, with varying degrees of punishment.
and in some cases turns into things like the grooming scandal in the UK (the development of which convinced me that the UK is a Bozo society), or the Venezuelan gangs that took control over apartment complexes in Colorado.
The President of the United States just said illegals are welcome to stay. Think on that for a while. Lol.
If You crossed the border without being formally admitted or paroled “Improper entry” (8 U.S.C. § 1325) this is a Criminal misdemeanor (fined and/or up to 6 months in jail on a first offense) You can be placed in removal (deportation) proceedings and will also have a criminal record for the entry (law.cornell.edu)
if You entered legally (e.g., visa or parole) but stayed after your permission expired, or you violated the terms of your status “Unlawful presence” (INA § 212(a)(9)(B); 8 U.S.C. § 1182(a)(9)(B)) Civil/administrative—not a crime in itself You become removable and you trigger future re-entry bars: 180-364 days = 3-year bar; ≥365 days = 10-year bar (uscis.gov, uscode.house.gov)
Lucky you, Sunny Mills, you got the bullshit smackdown from Mish. You should wear that as a badge of honor. He knows more than you do . . . or maybe not. It’s hard to tell sometimes.
Nice post though. You and Ann are killing it. She’s got hard to argue with factoids out the wazoo & you’re bringing hard to argue with common sense.
Now back to Mish’s bullshit moniker.
Criminal Penalties for Improper Entry to the United States
For the first improper entry offense, the person can be fined (as a criminal penalty), or imprisoned for up to six months, or both.
For a subsequent offense, the person can be fined or imprisoned for up to two years, or both. (See 8 U.S.C. Section 1325, I.N.A. Section 275.).
Fines & jail time for a first offense sounds a whole lot more criminal than civil.
What about the lost wages that american workers would have had if illegals hadn’t been hired instead for 50% less. 10,000,000 x 25,000 = 250 billion per year. Over 10 years that’s 2.5 trillion taken out of american workers pockets.
Where the flying F are you going to find crop pickers, roofers, and skilled trade.
Here’s a hint:
Trump on Truth Social
Trump is suddenly worried about “impossible to replace hotel workers”.
Using MAGA against MAGA will cause Ted’s mind to explode Mish.
I think your posts need to come with a mental health warning from now on. Something like, “Warning, this post might impact your mental health if you’re a die-hard MAGA! Use Extreme Caution Before Reading“
Yes that is a brilliant idea. Thanks.
There’s always a labor side price point. Since labor is what maybe 33% depending on the crops, there is room for the agri-business to pay more to attract legal workers without this “triple labor costs means triple food costs” BS.
Or simply expand H2B visas
Yes, this makes sense, Let’s deport skilled roofers at a cost of $17,000 per, then offer them visas to come back.
To speed it up, I like Ann’s idea of giving them $10,000 to leave, then we will immediately give them a visa.
This will have the amazing benefit of giving Trump two things to crow about. Rising deportations and legal immigration.
I am positive that MPO45v2 is on board with this brilliant plan.
Ann, are you with us?
Is someone calling me? No, I don’t think visas are a good idea after you’ve incentivized people to return to their homeland and make a life for themselves there. I think their own countries need their skills to improve their own cities.
I asked AI this question: Before illegal immigration was so prevalent who was it that worked in construction and roofing? And this was its answer:
————————————————
Before illegal immigration became prevalent in construction (especially post-1980s), these were the groups most commonly working in roofing and construction:
Who Did Roofing and Construction Before Illegal Immigration Was Prevalent?
1. U.S.-Born Working-Class Men
2. Union Labor
3. Military Veterans
4. Appalachian and Rural Workers
5. Legal Immigrants (Smaller Share)
What Changed?
This gradually pushed out native workers, as wages and conditions deteriorated.
“After the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA), illegal immigration surged.”
AMNESTY. Damn Amnesty.
Bingo! It’s not rocket science. I said the exact same thing above.
You’re making WAY TOO MUCH SENSE, Ann. So please just stop before all these TDS infused persons start treating you with contempt.
Soon, you’re going to get called out for spreading Bullshit by you know who.
Yes, it was amnesty 39 years ago: The Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 (IRCA) included a significant amnesty provision. It granted legal status to undocumented immigrants who could demonstrate they had resided in the United States continuously since before January 1, 1982. This amnesty was a key component of the law, alongside employer sanctions and increased border enforcement.
Place an add in the help wanted: farm worker wanted: we provide living market wages monthly salary income: 1) health and dental care benefit – $800.00
2) retirement salary benefit- $300.00
3) base salary and employee tax burden salary – $4,800.00
4) gross monthly salary income (st) – $5,900.00 / 160 hrs. – $36.90.
I think you can pull some native citizens off the sidelines for an hourly living wage? I am retired and I would consider working harvesting food for a living hourly salary of $36.90 per hour.
Think about the tax revenues from a $36.90 an hour vs an employee making $15.00 an hour?
It always goes back to who’s going to pick the cotton. The Dutch and Brits had it all figured out ~ 300 years ago
You are correct, Ted. It all started with the 1986 amnesty granted by Reagan. Had he done a hard right & built a wall that was updated & properly manned over the last 40 years, that $10T would be in American’s pockets in the form of higher wages. And we’d probably have a lot less crime & drugs. Hell, college might not be quite as expensive as it is, since we’d have so many of the under-employed these days working with their hands building things.
Remember: You’ve got this all wrong. There’s no way Americans could be roofers, electricians, plumbers, welders, landscapers or even maids in hotels, even if the wages were higher than they are now. It just can’t happen. In fact it will never happen, so get over your rational thinking that Americans could ever replace a single illegal alien. And most importantly, our current state of affairs has absolutely nothing to do with business owners taking advantage of the lax or non-enforcement of employment laws.
Okay, let’s be reasonable. California is screwed. There’s no way that state ever functions without a massive number of illegals. But for a good many other states, you really have to wonder how correct or wrong Mish might be with the right policies in place. You just have to wonder, right?
We can dream. That’s for sure.
The more I work with AI, the more I’m impressed with it. So when I read in the article that it cost approximately $17,000 to deport one illegal immigrant I asked AI if it was a consultant to DHS and had to create a program to offer a $10,000 payment (much higher than the current $1,000 they are offering) and the $10,000 would only be paid if 90% of the other illegal immigrants in their defined area also accepted the $10,000 payment how would you design and implement that program and this is what it said.
This looks like a win-win solution for everyone involved. A family of four receiving $10,000 per person would walk away with $40,000 — a meaningful amount to start fresh in their home country while also contributing to that country’s local economy.
—————————————————
DHS AI Proposal: “Operation Unity Exit”
Goal:
Offer $10,000 per person to self-deport—but only if 90% of eligible individuals in a defined geographic “unit” (like a town, ZIP code, or housing cluster) participate voluntarily.
1. Define Eligibility Units (“Voluntary Compliance Zones”)
2. Cost Model and Savings Justification
The average cost to deport one person through traditional enforcement is $17,121, based on ICE data. Under the Unity Exit Plan, the maximum payout would be $10,000 per person — a significant reduction.
For a group of 1,000 people:
If just one million individuals participated, the program could save an estimated $7.1 billion in taxpayer funds.
3. Tech Platform: UnityExit.gov
4. Notification & Engagement
5. Departure Package
6. Risk Mitigation
7. Dashboard for Oversight
8. Public Messaging
Summary: Why This Works
Trump offered $1,000 but there is only one taker.
Since ICE says the cost is $17,000 then make it $15,000.
Of course, this needs to be funded, which means Trump cannot do this on his own.
I wonder how many people would accept.
I also wonder how many people would howl, preferring to spend $17,000+ to do it forcibly rather than $15,000 to do it peacefully.
A family of 4 just might take $60,000 and run.
Then when there is a labor shortage, Trump might want them back in.
IMHO, a lot of illegals would take $10K each.
If Trump gets millions off Medicaid, that’s going to help with labor shortages in some industries.
Ultimately, he has to get the vast majority of illegals to come out of the shadows, so they can legally & without concern for being deported move around to where the jobs openings are.
This isn’t just a throw money at the situation.
I think $1,000 was too low, $15,000 would be fine, it would be even more of an incentive and the extra $2,000 (from the $17,000) could pay for administrative costs per person. I too wonder how many people would accept. A family of four would now receive $60,000, which would go a long way in the countries they are from and would add to their local economy. It’s a commonsense approach that seems to benefit all parties. Maybe no one has thought of it yet.
If you monetarily incentivize it too much, you get more people that come here illegally to take advantage of a quick profit. $1000 is the right amount of carrot, but it should be played off againt a more painful stick for not self deporting.
If what Mike wrote was accurate that only one person accepted, I don’t know where that is written or if that information is public, but if true that would indicate that the incentive is too low. The reason I suggested $10,000 was because it was going to cost $17,000 and the border is sealed now, so no one will be able to come here to get the $10,000 payment. If the border is not completely sealed, then I would say wait until whatever needs to happen, the wall, sensors, other technology, etc. to make it secure then offer the program to those that are here. This plan would also reduce substantially the risk to ICE agents and it’s a humanitarian program as well, many people that came here are desperate, if you’re going to spend the money anyways spend a lower amount, the $10,000, and help people who need help and free our country of the illegal immigrant problem once and for all and I didn’t write this originally, but anyone with a criminal record that involved violence would not be eligible for the payment.
I believe Trump shut the gates. And this offer only applies to those who have been here a while.
That would be great, if true. A logical decision from government for a change!
One other thing, the $1,000 current plan was too low and wasn’t tied to anything else. The plan I suggested to the AI who then wrote about it in detail was predicated on a group incentive, no one gets the $10,000 or $15,000 unless other people in their location group also accepts the offer. That adds a community benefit incentive in the form of we can all help each other if we all agree to this. The money alone might not work as well if it’s not tied to the 90% acceptance rate to receive the payment because friends and neighbors will encourage one another to register in the program. And from the government’s view it might be worth the payments if they are assured of deporting many more people this way (due to the 90%) rather than a few people that might respond to the offer if the 90% requirement was not part of it.
Don’t forget to account for the increased demand for food, housing, the cost of uninsured motorist insurance, and shifted healthcare costs. The externalities are endless. Surely someone is benefitting from depressed wages, inflated stock and asset prices but it isn’t the lower class. If you deport 5% of the population and GDP only changes 5% then the GDP per person hasn’t really changed.
How many people want to go though an economic depression bigger than the Great Recession to test your hypothesis and Fred’s?
Not even Trump who says …
Trump on Truth Social
TACO Trump backed down without even deporting 500,000.
Fred wants to deport 20 million.
That’s obviously idiotic.
You keep pretending there are no available workers in the US, when there are, in fact, 100+ million people of working age who are not working. The focus should be on inentivizing a good chunk of those people to work (carrot), and disincentivizing them to avoid work if they are able bodied (stick). Repeatedly saying, “Americans won’t take those jobs”, is quite frankly ridiculous, and a meme started and reinforced by politicians. Stop parroting the meme. It’s not true. The current legislative and regulatory structures in the economy are what is blocking American workers, and a big part of the blame is government subsidies and handouts given not to work.
How many are skilled roofers?
How many of those 100 million are retired?
For Christ’s sake do you realize there are only 7.2 million unemployed?
OK I will be generous (I was amazingly generous in my post assumptions) so let it continue.
The U6 Unemployment rate is 7.8 percent.
7.8 = (X / Labor Force) * 100
LF = 170,510,000
X = (7.8 * 170,510,000) / 100
Ta Da. I am giving you 13.3 million and nearly half of that has no motivation at all to work! (That is what U6 Means)
Nonetheless, let’s make all of them roofers, crop pickers, tile layers, construction workers.
How happy do you think you will be with productivity and for how long?
It’s absurd, even if I generously expand the labor pool of which (7.8-4.2)/7.8 are collecting no benefits and have no motivation to work.
We can do this another way. 13.3 million minus 7.2 million = 6.1 million.
Of those 13.3 million workers I generously gave you, 6.1 million of them collect no benefits and are not trying to work.
But let’s force them to be construction workers.
I am not pretending anything. You are pretending there are people IN THE RIGHT PLACES to take these jobs.
Get a grip on reality and stop repeating stupid stuff.
What if we deport the “worst” 10% of illegal immigrants? What’s that? 1.5 million? 2 million max? Sounds like we are in agreement. Our numbers line up. Problem solved. Go back as far as you want to about this topic in my comment log. I have been advocating 10% deportation for a very long time. The numbers jibe, and the goals (worst 10% gone) make sense.
If you deported 5% of the lowest wage earners, the hit to GDP would be significanly lower than 5%. It may even be somewhere below 1%, if it weren’t for the avalanche of government subsidies and consumer credit lavished on illegal immigrants.
This whole post seems like an IgnoRANT to me.
I have had enough of your ignorant shit.
Please tell us in detail what you disagree with.
Enlighten us all.
He can’t – nimbots can’t think.
First of all – I appreciate your well thought out well reasoned posts about global economic issues – you present info with a perspective that few others consider.
This post uses “ignore” several times and the implication is that it relies on data that either inaccurate, incorrect or misleading to arrive at conclusions that are based on this data.
@Mish I get that this is a tough environment for providing well thought out fact based offerings and that politics is makes it hard. At the same time I believe you are doing your best to offer the highest quality information available. I appreciate your well reasoned posts and agree that huge economic sin is sourced from both sides of the isle.
I totally agree that the deportations are a net negative to business and the economy. And I agree that the govt numbers are useless for an accurate analysis. I also agree that “Unfortunately, much economic damage has already been done.” (which I see as the main point of the post).
My real question is what can citizens do about this? Attend “No KIng’s” rallies? send mail to elected officials? donate to other political parties?
Are there any asset classes that stand to benefit from the deportations? gold? land? bonds? emerging countries? tech? robotics? ecoins?
Please understand that I have not been posting any “ignorant shit” aimed at you or your posts – I just made the comment because I have learned from you that “no one can predict the future” while at the same time hearing that “gold is money”.
“So, right off the bat we can see FAIR is 40 percent higher than other numbers, including Homeland Security.” Sorry, but there is no way you can use a 2022 number in 2025, since there was hardly any deportation under Biden and yet people continued to come in from 2022 to 2024. The number is probably closer to 20 million than 11 million.
Also, I would gladly give up $1 trillion of GDP, because there are other values at stake, BUT even that number does not include the reduction in welfare benefits to the native population who could be shoved off welfare and into work via a labor shortage. To me limited government is more important than a slightly higher short-term GDP. And don’t forget it is GDP per capita that matters not just GDP. Otherwise, China is a better place than Switzerland.
I accepted FAIR’s 15.5 million immigrant number.
And I now accept your 20 million number.
The cost to deport them all, using government estimates would be $17,121 * 20 million = $342 billion. Happy? And that assumes government cost estimates are accurate.
And we also need to scale up GDP losses.
The hit to GDP would then be $1.1 trillion * 20 / 11 = $2.0 trillion making the assumption the hit is linear and there are not increased holding costs, both obviously wrong.
Math Hint:
Once you are in negative benefits, doing more of the same idiotic thing obviously increases the problem.
Finally, please take a look at Japan’s GDP per capita. Japan has essentially zero immigration. It’s GDP stalled decades ago.
CATO goes over some of this in detail
https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/2024-11/working-paper-82-update.pdf
And you ignore intangibles
Not accounting for the indirect economic effects of immigration All of these estimates—including this review’s revisions—do not account for the indirect economic effects of immigration that increase US tax revenues. Here are four areas: 1. Effect of immigration on capital income. Immigrants increase corporate profits and incentivize more investment in the United States, which indirectly increases tax revenues. Economists Mark Colas and Dominik Sachs estimate this effect at $750 per person annually. This would flip many other low-skilled immigrants positive in the MI model. 2. Effect of immigration on employment of skilled US workers. For instance, economists Patricia Cortes and Jose Tessada find that “low-skilled immigration increases average hours of market work and the probability of working long hours of women at the top quartile of the wage distribution.”
In short, you dismiss every study that discusses both sides while accepting an obvious-biased FAIR report that discusses only one side.
You bend over backwards to believe government reports of costs when you know damn well that government always underestimates the costs of every new program.
I am not in favor of uncontrolled immigration, and Biden made huge mistakes.
But we need to deal with the situation at hand.
You are willing to take a Great-Recession hit (now much bigger based in your 20 million number) on wild belief that GDP per capita will eventually rise enough to pay for it.
Sorry, it’s absurd. But as I said:
However, people will believe what they want. I will not talk true believers out of believing excruciatingly sloppy and obviously wrong one-sided FAIR analysis.
Biased people want to remain biased and deport them all. If that means they need to believe cost-benefit analysis that does not include costs, then they will believe cost-benefit analysis that does not include costs.
Rooted beliefs are nearly impossible to change no matter what evidence is presented.
You economic argument is missing a necessary factor and that is how does it affect the GDP per capita. Perhaps I missed it but at least for me that factor along with the societal problems are what should determine policy and not the supposed pure economic benefits these studies produced. We already have experience with studies showing us benefits of the free trade model which as we know now were completely off the mark.
Scott Bessent said if we increase massively immigration then our GDP would double but the GDP per capita would halve. Which one do you prefer?
Why do you believe Bessant other than he is saying what you want to hear?
Where are his numbers?
As for free trade, would you prefer the economy of Vietnam? Venezuela? even Germany with its export subsidies? China?
The US has obviously been a net beneficiary of trade policy.
Trump wants the US to be more like Vietnam, and apparently so do you.
It like common sense. You increase massively the supply of labor and wages get hit. I would suggest you read some studies on wages and labor in history going back to the Roman Empire. There are many instances of that happening and the opposite, when labor is scarce, of wages increasing dramatically. The studies you cite are studies made to sell an idea just like most studies made by brokers are made to sell you something.
As for free trade you take the all or nothing approach. Either it is all free or it is a command economy with nothing between. I prefer something between because it works. I read studies of course but to understand a subject I prefer books to think tank studies which are by nature biased. I have a long list if you like. lately I have been reading about the economy of the Roman Empire and its trade with India. Funny enough Rome had a huge balance of payments problem with Arabia and India that mirrors by its size ours. To get back to it you believe everyone benefitted from the free trade policy when it is clear by every measure most people did not when you net everything out. The benefits accrued to an increasingly smaller group as that policy continued. You deny that happened and found a study that matches your belief. I can do the same. I suppose you are one of those who think that people are actually doing much better economically and the problem is one of “perception”. If you believe that then I understand why you are mystified by how people voted.
i attended a symposium decades ago, where the historians were presenting the case that after the roman empire had peaked with constant warfare and their ridiculous pensions for soldiers was unsustainable, the barbarians(just immigrants from the alps and beyond, started to slowly immigrate into the plush roman heart, they were making the case as it was similar to the usa empire………and current events the past few decades. not sure when i’d say peak pax amerika was but it was probably 1945 to around 1965, when LBJ took silver out of the coins as the guns and butter was beginning to bankrupt our bloated empire. the immgration policies changed in mid 60s too. forget the causes, there are many. but the affects are similar. this empire is creaking and taking on water. might even bust up into the old states like most empires do. but the immigrants are like those old immigrants coming into Rome. it literally changed the whole complexion and culture.
There has been a lot more detailed historical books and studies in the last few decades on that. There were many causes but a couple stand out. First is the drain of gold and silver out of the Empire caused by the conspicuous consumption habits for more and more luxury products. The drain of specie out of the Empire was in the beginning offset by more mining but as the mines ran out the currency had to be debased. Since the government owned all the mines that was their principle source of funds. The second was a 20% tax on imports that brought in enormous funds. It was actually a tax on the wealthy in a sense but not exclusively. These two pillars were fragile since one depended on the other. Together they paid for the army and the grain dole and since the tariffs were easy to collect the bureaucracy to collect taxes could be kept at a minimum. Only a few provinces brought in more in taxes than they cost in protection and administration. When the Antoine Plague hit in AD 165 those two pillars collapsed and there was no money to pay the army. Increasing taxes on the general population caused rebellions because until then interior taxes were low. Barbarians started to get in because the army didn’t have funds. Roman legions were unbeatable but they were expensive to train and maintain and when those funds dried up after the plague they never really came back. Romans at the time knew about this and wrote about it. Many commissions were made with recommendations but they were trapped in the cycle and couldn’t get out. The specie drain couldn’t be stopped and revenues were concentrated from only a small handful of provinces while expenses had to cover all of them. It reminds me of our deficits. For now we can handle them but a time will come when we we can’t anymore.
thanks for adding to my understanding of my homeland. i concur, the amerikan empire is making the same moves.
I am all on board.
Let’s pay these people $30 an hour or whatever it takes to make them roofers, tile layers, or hotel workers.
Gavin Newsom proposed $30 minimum wage for hotel workers, I say do it.
For skilled workers $80 an hour or whatever
Then those working at the pizza stand will want $30. In fact everyone will demand $30 which will soon enough not be a living wage.
But I am fully on board. That’s the cooperative mood I am in today. And to bring the jobs back to the US I want tariffs to the moon.
The net result of all this insanity is the US becomes the highest cost producer of everything. Exports plunge to nothingness and GDP collaspes.
Few here can think.
Idiots want the US to be more like Vietnam, while Vietnam wants to be more like the US.
You are talking in clichés Mish.
I have read where builders are spending 6% on rate buy downs of new homes & still have 30% gross margin. So $600K house * .36 equals $216K in gross profits. That means there’s a decent amount of money that could be spent paying higher wages to Americans.
The problem is that we don’t yet have the political will to change the system.
And over the next 5 years or so, time is going to start to run out. Between increasingly large annual budget deficits, continued higher than expected inflation, ballooning interest expense, looming SSTF crisis & the dawn on AI & robotics taking jobs, we don’t have much time to react.
Again, it comes down to national will.
Great post!
Trump wants us to remove ourselves from dependence on China for all sorts of strategic goods. As far as I know, you are on record saying this is a good thing. Maybe I misunderstood a long-ago post.
As for free trade, you know this doesn’t exist & will never exist. This is an unavoidable truth.
America has at most 20 years before AI & robotics will have caused massive dislocations to employment here in the US, China, Europe, etc.
As this starts to liftoff within the next 5-7 years, the last thing America will need is 25M illegals running around, many of which will be un-employable.
Just wondering. Out of the 25M illegals which is a legit number, how many do you think need to be deported?
I will bet you here today that in 10-15 years time, America will need less than half of the produce workers that it currently needs.
You wrote 10-15 years, I would have thought it would take quite a while too until I watched some automated farming videos yesterday that someone had posted, now I think it will be in the next few years that automation starts to become the norm. Even Stephen Miller talked about that on a show when he was being interviewed. I think with Trump’s pause on farm workers’ deportations people in the administration who do not want to pause anything might start suggesting tax incentives and whatever else they can think of to encourage farmers to make the change and not be dependent on illegal immigrant labor.
If the migrant workers don’t have jobs, they will leave.
Farm automation is well underway in places like the Netherlands. Machines are planting, weeding and harvesting something close to 10 times what a human can do. Immigrant farm labor will be over soon.
I read where JD has this planter than can put six thousand seeds in the ground in like 2-3 seconds.
Absolutely, the automation of farm production is really starting to lift off and will only continue.
like the tractor replacing mules and legions of farm workers a century ago.
These types of things are really hard to predict in terms of the speed of adoption, but the key is recognizing that its coming. There are all sorts of adjustments in terms of policies & laws that we need to get out in front of within the next 3-5 years.
The real issue is how long does the HONEYMOON last whereby AI makes you a better doctor, financial analyst, accountant, logistics, etc? Once the honeymoon is over is when we start reading very frequently about company XYZ letting employees go based on AI advancements. The same thing is going to happen with robotics, but the honeymoon period will be virtually non-existent.
If everything is profit and loss, I guess we don’t need principles and preference any more?
trump’s moniker as TACO has been greatly earned and continues to do so.
All credibility has been questioned and justifiably so.